The much-awaited Lisbon Treaty is now finally in place. Any moment now, the EU will emerge from its pre-Lisbon cocoon and show itself as fully-fledged global actor.
Expect an emergent China, an assertive Russia and a declining U.S to stand back in awe. Any minute now. Waiting. See it yet? No? That’s because while the ratification provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the EU to improve the efficiency of its foreign policy apparatus — and is cause for celebration — its implementation could be fraught.
The appointment of a High Representative for CSFP, who will also be a Vice-President of the European Commission and the establishment of a European diplomatic service, are much-needed innovations. The prospect of the EU spending aid money where its foreign policies priorities are is welcome. But putting this joined-up system in place will require changes in both the Council Secretariat, which services EU states, and of the European Commission. Though EU foreign ministers agreed a blueprint for the new set-up last week for how to proceed, many details are unclear. Particularly the relationship between the Council President and the High Representative is unclear and will be shaped by the initial office-holders. But everyone is clear that the potential for an institution-destroying battle is ever-present.
Second, EU’s foreign policy set-up suffers from a number of institutional deficiencies, which will not automatically be remedied by the Lisbon Treaty. As Koen Vervaeke, the EUSR to the African Union, has noted, the Lisbon Treaty may actually place a greater bureaucratic burden on people undertaking his role. It certainly has the potential to exacerbate the micromanaging tendencies in Brussels. In our recent report, Richard Gowan and I looked at the way in which the EU needs to adopt to deal with failing states. In many cases, it will require changes in the EU’s diplomatic SOPs, including through greater delegation to the field.
Third, institutional negotiations on the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty seem to have missed a sense of how international affairs have changed over the last couple of years, especially on issues like climate change, and how the EU should model its organizational set-up to deal with these changes. Diplomacy has retained many of the features since its practices were originally codified in the 18th century. Envoys still demarche foreign governments, and respect the rules laid down in the Vienna Convention of 1963. But on issues like climate change, the diplomatic focus is less about changing the perspectives and behaviour of nation-states, but about influencing people, business, and cities. So far, discussions on Lisbon’s implementation have been quite old-school in their conception of the future set-up. There has been no talk of having EU climate envoys in cities as opposed to countries, for example.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, EU foreign policy depends on European governments. And new institutions are no surrogate for common interests and strategy. As Nick Witney and Jeremy Shapiro have just shown in their latest research on the EU’s US policy, divergence among EU states is what hampers effectiveness, not the lack of institutions. Nicu Popescu and Andrew Wilson have drawn much the same conclusion in their research on Europe’s Russia policy.
So the Lisbon Treaty has the potential to herald the emergence of a new world actor – a Europe that can look upwards and outwards and is equipped with the bureaucratic tools to do so. In his recent speech, British foreign minister David Miliband laid out why this matters. Without greater coherence – and an integrative system in place – European countries, however big, will become bystanders in a G2 world run by China and the US. A coherent framework for cooperation will help Europeans get a clearer sense of each other’s priorities and to develop a shared idea of the foreign policy challenge they must confront. Butterflies are beautiful, in part because they take time to develop, and at no stage during their caterpillar period look as if they can emerge colourful and lithe. The same is the case for common and effective EU foreign policy.
The Lisbon Treaty Q&A How similar is Lisbon to the draft constitution? It contains many of the changes the constitution attempted to introduce, for example: * A politician chosen to be president of the European Council for two-and-a-half years, replacing the current system where countries take turns at being president for six months. * A new post - called High Representative - combining the jobs of the existing foreign affairs supremo, Javier Solana, and the external affairs commissioner, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, to give the EU more influence on the world stage. * A smaller European Commission, with fewer commissioners than there are member states, from 2014. |
Timeline: The road to Lisbon The Czech Republic’s President Vaclav Klaus has signed the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty, meaning the process of its ratification is complete. The treaty - drawn up to streamline decision-making in the 27-member EU - is set to come into effect in December. Here we chart the treaty’s journey and the obstacles it has faced along the way. Dec 2001: The Laeken Declaration commits the EU to greater democracy and paves the way for a constitution.
June 2004: The European Constitution is agreed by EU leaders in Brussels, bringing together for the first time the many treaties and agreements on which the EU is based. May 2005: French voters overwhelmingly reject the constitution in a referendum. Almost 55% of people vote “No”, with 45% in favour. June 2005: Dutch voters also overwhelmingly reject the constitution in a referendum. The final results indicate 61.6% of voters are against the charter and 38.4% approve of it. Late 2005-early 2007: European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso admits the EU will not have a constitution for “at least two or three years”. The body enters a period of reflection. The European Constitution is suspended. March 2007: The Berlin Declaration is adopted, outlining members’ intentions to agree on new treaty. It says the EU should be placed on a “renewed common basis” before the Oct 2007: Leaders reach a deal on new treaty designed to speed up decision making. It creates a new president of the European Council and a new EU foreign affairs chief but the 250-page document is stripped of any trappings of a super-state, such as the mention of the EU anthem and flag. Dec 2007: EU leaders sign the treaty in Lisbon. Although the treaty is a replacement for the EU constitution, they insist the two texts are in no way equivalent. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown belatedly signs the treaty, having missed a ceremony attended by leaders of the 26 other member states. Dec 2007: Hungary becomes the first country to ratify the treaty. June 2008: Voters in the Irish Republic reject the treaty in a vote by 53.4% to 46.6%. Irish PM Brian Cowen says he respects the vote but admits it has caused a “difficult situation” that has “no quick fix”. Nov 2008: The parliament’s ratification of the document is halted pending a decision by the Czech constitutional court on whether the treaty is compatible with the country’s constitution. It rules that it is. Czech President Vaclav Klaus, a Eurosceptic, argues the treaty undermines Czech sovereignty. June 2009: Germany’s constitutional court rules the treaty is compatible with German law - but suspends ratification of it. The court says extra national legislation is needed to ensure the German parliament participates fully in adopting EU laws. Lisbon passes German court test Sept 2009: Czech senators opposed to the treaty file a new complaint with the constitutional court. Seventeen Eurosceptic senators sign the petition, despite the fact the Czech parliament has approved the treaty. President Vaclav Klaus says he will not sign the treaty until the court decides. Oct 2009: Irish voters endorse the treaty in a second referendum - 16 months after their first vote rejecting it. About 67% voted “Yes”, official results show. Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen hails a “clear and resounding” endorsement. Ireland backs EU’s Lisbon Treaty Nov 2009: The Czech constitutional court rules for a second time that the treaty is compatible with the country’s constitution. President Vaclav Klaus says he will no longer oppose it. Dec 2009: The treaty is expected to take effect. |
The declaration’s two main goals are to make the EU more efficient as it expands and takes on new roles, as well as to bring it “closer to the people”. 
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