🟢FROM THE ARCHIVES: Museveni fights for eastern vote

🟥Does History Repeat Itself? The Independent looks back 10 years by reproducing a BIG STORY from 2015 that illustrates the mood of the time. How much has changed since then? What does it tell about the future for Uganda? You can find out if you read on, in this bi-monthly #Uganda10YearsAgo series, that started yesterday. Merry Christmas, Happy New year. 🎇

Mbabazi could replace Besigye as regional opposition favourite

🟢 COVER STORY | Issue 398 – 2015 | By Agather Atuhaire | ‘Analysis of political campaigns often throws up unsubstantiated claims and the commentary on the 2011 general elections is no exception. Among the popular myths being peddled is that President Yoweri Museveni won the north. He did not. In fact he got his least votes there – 27% in Nwoya, 29% in Gulu district, 39% in Kitgum, 49% in Lira, 46% in Pader. Museveni’s highest tally was 70% in Otuke, and 60% in Oyam.

Instead, the figures in northern Uganda show two outcomes that are often mixed up. The first is that the opposition vote that previously went to Museveni’s main rival Kizza Besigye in that region, was split between him and the Democratic Party candidate Nobert Mao. The other is what is widely known; that Museveni defeated Besigye in that region for the first time.

Another emerging myth related to the northern one is that Museveni has previously performed badly in eastern Uganda and is likely to be routed in 2016 by independent candidate Amama Mbabazi, the former prime minister and NRM secretary general who is leading the Go-Forward coalition.

The pundits point at the three districts of Soroti, Serere and Kaberamaido where Museveni lost to Besigye. In Soroti, Besigye garnered 61.9% of the vote against Museveni’s 34.9, in Serere Besigye got 55% and Museveni 40.8%, and in Kaberamaido Besigye got 51.9% against Museveni’s 43%.

The other strong point is that Besigye had beaten Museveni in about half of the region’s districts in the 2006 election. In reality, Besigye might have done better in eastern than elsewhere, but Museveni defeated him hands down in eastern Uganda. The sense of Besigye’s strength in eastern Uganda is reflected in the numbers. In the 32 districts that comprise the greater eastern region, Besigye’s tally was about 28%, two percentage points above his national average vote tally of 26%.

Museveni on the other hand saw red in eastern Uganda if his average vote tally there is compared to his national average. In the 32 districts, he got an average of 65%, which is three percentage points below his national average of 68%. Therefore, Besigye is strong in eastern Uganda but he did not defeat Museveni there. But 2016 is not 2011.

In a presage of what possibly lies ahead in 2016, some observers say, five ministers from eastern Uganda failed to secure the party flag in the primaries for members of parliament. Ministers Daudi Migereko, Sarah Opendi, Jessica Alupo, Asuman Kiyingi, and Irene Muloni were beated in the October races. President Museveni appears to be succumbing to the doomsday outlook for his prospects in eastern Uganda.

It is widely believed it is the reason he on Nov.11 engineered a Museveni in a mini reshuffle to replace the ministers that saw him appointed three easterners to replace two westerners and an easterner in his cabinet.

That was a surprise because Museveni has never appointed ministers from one region in a single reshuffle. It would have been less surprising if it had been from the West which has always seemed to be his favorite when it comes to choosing ministers but not the East which has until recently had only three cabinet ministers.

What is more surprising is that two of the people he was replacing (Kategaya and Nyakairima) were from the West. Octogenarian Kirunda
Kivejinja, Bukedea Woman MP Rose Akol, Bunghoko South MP Michael Werikhe were appointed to replace the late Eriya Kategaya, the late Aronda Nyakairima, and the late James Mutende.

The timing of the reshuffle also caused wise-watchers to wink. Many wondered aloud why Museveni was carrying out a reshuffle, less than three months to the end of his term after he had comfortably left some of the slots unfilled for more than two years.

Kategaya’s position had been vacant for almost three years now since his death in March 2013. The view in the bars and taxis is that Museveni plotted the new appointments as a strategy to neutralize his opponents in the region. Bubulo East MP Simon Mulongo, who is also from the east, belongs to Museveni’s party and was defeated in the primaries, told The Independent Museveni was smart to make that move.

He said it was high time Museveni appeased and appreciated the people of eastern Uganda because they have felt marginalised for so long and could easily run out of patience at the polls in 2016.

“Do you know that the entire region from Jinja all the way to Karamoja had only three cabinet ministers?” Mulongo said, “How do you think that makes the people feel yet one region (Western) has 20 ministers?

“In fact, Greater Bushenyi alone has more than five and Sheema, one district has two cabinet ministers.”

✳ READ THE FULL STORY and OTHER MAGAZINE ARTICLES (click HERE )