Africa could have 44 million COVID-19 infections this year- WHO

Kampala, Uganda |  THE INDEPENDENT | The African continent will have 44 million infections and about 19,000 deaths if countries fail to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease-COVID-19. This is according to a study carried out by the World Health Organisation regional office for Africa and published in the British Medical Journal-Global Health.

The research which is based on prediction modelling looks at 47 countries in the WHO African Region with a total population of one billion people. The new estimates are based on modifying the risk of transmission and disease severity by variables specific to each country in order to adjust for the unique nature of the region.

Africa has registered lower rates of infection compared to other countries elsewhere. This is mainly due to ongoing national lockdowns. Findings from the study show that lower transmission rates could mean prolonged outbreaks that might last for a few years.

According to the study, smaller African countries in size  like Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi together with countries reporting high cases like South Africa, Algeria and Cameroon are at high risks of being highly infected with more numbers and deaths. 

There would be an estimated 5.5 million hospitalizations, of which over  82,000 would be severe cases requiring oxygen and over 52,000 would be critical cases requiring breathing support. With each African country have an average of nine intensive care beds, the health systems would be highly strained.

Dr Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO Regional Director for Africa says that the virus might become a fixture in the lives of many for several years if proactive approaches are not taken by African governments.

“While COVID-19 likely won’t spread as exponentially in Africa as it has elsewhere in the world, it likely will smoulder in transmission hotspots. It could become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region. We need to test, trace, isolate and treat.” Dr Moeti said.

Dr Moeti says that the cost of promoting effective containment measures is cheaper than the cost of fighting the disease. She says that containment measures, specifically physical distancing and hygiene improvement, aim to slow down the transmission of the virus so its effects happen at a rate manageable by the health system.

Several countries in the world that had instituted lockdowns have begun lifting them. In Africa; Ghana, South Africa, Nigeria and Bostwana are some of the counties that are lifting Lockdowns.

Findings from the study predict that if countries have not put in place robust health systems that are able to detect, isolate, test and treat cases plus trace all contacts health systems will be overwhelmed.

“The importance of promoting effective containment measures is ever more crucial, as the sustained and widespread transmission of the virus could severely overwhelm our health systems. Curbing a largescale outbreak is far costlier than the ongoing preventive measures governments are undertaking to contain the spread of the virus,” she said.

Atek Kagirita, the ministry of health COVID-19 incident commander today in an interview with Uganda Radio Network said that at times WHO models predict worse case scenarios.

“It’s true that we need to be cautious. Uganda has been cautious and I believe that is why we have the few cases that have been reported so far compared to other countries. However, at times the modelling used for these studies does not depict what is on the ground. Earlier WHO modelling showed that by May 1, 2020, Uganda would have 85 deaths. We have not recorded any death,” Kagirita said.

The study recommends that countries across Africa need to expand the capacity particularly of primary hospitals and ensure that basic emergency care is included in primary health systems. As of today, data from WHO shows that 35,470 cases of COVID-19 have been reported with 1,228 deaths registered.

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