ANALYSIS: Age-limit debate opportunists

A fellow former legislator, Dan Wandera Ogalo agrees.  The constitutional lawyer told The Independent on Sept.22 that there was nothing extraordinary about a parliament sitting to amend the constitution. He said the problem is many MPs are determined to grab it as an opportunity to show their loyalty to Museveni.  Ogalo said “this could be the reason why some credible persons as far as Uganda’s political history is concerned have chosen to stay away from the debate”.

The age-limit debate speaks volumes about how political transitions in some African countries are handled in the era of political opportunism.  Museveni, observers say, has become like leaders in Africa who become hesitant to leave power on their own and instead they resort to bribery, frustration and intimidation in order to survive politically. They also resort to coming up with laws that appear to protect them.

Many observers say, for instance, in pushing for a 73-year old President Museveni who has already been in power for more than 30 years, his handlers are considering him being president for life.

Museveni started flip-flopping way back. While writing his 1996 manifesto, he promised not to seek another term after that. He said this against the advice of his then loyal minister Bidandi Ssali. Now, Bidandi is unwilling to comment on the topic. He told The Independent on Sept.21 that he has retired from politics and does not want to take part in what he termed as ‘current wars’.

But it is on record that Bidandi cautioned Museveni against putting promises in writing. Perhaps he was aware that it is hard for an African president to keep such a promise.  In 2001, Museveni promised again that it would be his last term only to come back. This time, in 2003, it was then- Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi holding the mantle for the kick out term limits campaign. By 2005, people were being convinced not to let go of a good leader because of “mere term limits”.

At that time, Olum who was a member of parliament said money exchanged hands as colleagues frequented MOSA Courts Hotel in Nakasero to cut deals on how to garner support for the initiative. When the time to vote on it came, only 55 voted against.

The age limit deal seems to be taking a similar form as unconfirmed information shows members are still bargaining on how much they are to earn once the bill makes it to parliament. Some are said to have already set their price at Shs300 million. But Museveni is said to be holding on to his purse.

Rtd Major Rubaramira Ruranga, the war veteran who had walked out of the NRM in 2001 claiming Museveni had gone against what they had agreed, only to return in 2013, says the Age-limit Bill and the debate “are testing the patience of Ugandans”.

He says it is because politicians are selfish and parties cannot be as strong as the individuals behind them.

“Parties don’t have capacity of telling their members that you can’t do this.

“The problem with Africa is we get there by chance and not the reality of how things happen,” he says, “it’s the reason why leaders speak of democracy they can’t practice”.

Political analysts like Prof. Sabiti Makara say it is now survival for the fittest with everyone trying to see a way to gain either politically or economically from the age-limit Bill.

“That’s how Museveni likes it,” he says, adding that it would be naïve of anyone to think that both advocates against and for age limit are doing it for the people.

According to the Makerere University-based lecturer, the president can easily rule for life through buying his stay and ensuring those opposed to his rule stay disorganised and making those loyal to him too comfortable or too scared to change goal posts.

“It’s because of this that many observers believe that political transition in Uganda is likely to result only when Museveni dies or is removed from office by a coup. Each of these options can have extremely destabilizing consequences for the country,” he says.

Olum and Makara fear that what is currently happening could easily plunge the country back to the chaotic past as the ordinary person will be left desperate and a mere spark will cause war.

Makara says: “Those people who put in place these limits wanted to make sure that there are checks and balances and those that say there are no such limits in the developed world like the U.S. should also know we are running completely different systems. Theirs were developed over time. With no limits, how will oppressed people get their power back yet the electoral process is already flawed?”

As the push and pull continues over the Bill, some people say Museveni should be thinking about how he leaves a legacy of peaceful transition and not how he clings on.

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