ANALYSIS: Besigye reloaded

According to Kaija, the failed dalliance of Bobi Wine with DP is proof of Besigye’s mettle as a candidate. He also dismisses the argument of those saying Besigye has run four times without getting the desired change with the analogy of an untiring job seeker.

“If you apply for a job ten times, does that mean that you are doing the job itself?” he asks. “We calculate your tenure when you are in office not when you are out there trying to get the job,” he adds. “If you are asking Besigye to leave then you are being unfair because you are not asking Museveni who is in office to leave.

As Besigye and FDC look beyond elections, Bobi Wine has been trying to shore up support among his base looking at the 2021 polls as a way of delivering change. Besigye and Bobi Wine exchanged words in April this year when Besgiye dismissed the chance of an alliance between Democratic Party (DP) and Bobi Wine.

Bobi Wine wondered why a four time presidential candidate was discouraging those who intend to use the same path of elections to achieve change. “For a leader to say a vote can never oust Museveni without offering a solution is disappointing… Don’t talk about democracy and stand four times and on the fifth time you say it doesn’t work, we believe it works,” Bobi Wine said.

Bobi Wine has found favour with the ‘1986 children’ as they are called. These are Ugandans born in the Museveni era, when a 41-year-old Museveni captured power on January 26, 1986 after a five year guerilla war. The oldest Ugandans in this generation are 33 years old, a few years younger than Bobi Wine, who is 37.

Museveni cheekily calls them ‘Bazukulu’ (grandchildren) as he addresses them in his regular letters on Facebook and Twitter. Ironically, the Bazukulu are the voters Bobi Wine is banking on to oust Museveni in the next election. He has been urging them to get National IDs and register for voting day.

So the emergence of Bobi Wine, a popular musician, on the political scene presents a direct challenge between Museveni and the Bazukulu who are Bobi Wine’s peers.

This demographic dynamic leaves Kizza Besigye in a tricky position. In 2021, he will be 65 with hopes of adding to his three million vote tally. In his defence, Besigye says he has never stopped anyone from standing.

Besigye polled an impressive two million votes in first three elections he took on Museveni, and notched one million more votes in the 2016 election. It could be a real test though for the former FDC president to bag the same vote tally with an insurgent Bobi Wine, who has galvanized a disgruntled and bulging Ugandan youth population, on the same ballot.

When Besigye and Muntu faced off in a televised debate for the FDC presidential flag-bearer in 2015, Besigye told Muntu that he was guaranteed of two million votes when he stands for President at the national level, given that he had scooped the said number of votes in the three elections he had contested in.

Besigye was directly challenging Muntu, then party president, on his potential for attracting votes. But now the ground seems to be shifting from under Besigye’s feet, four years later.

Research World poll

A poll survey released in May by Research World International (RWI) placed Besigye behind President Museveni and Bobi Wine. The poll indicated that Museveni would score 32 per cent, followed by Bobi Wine with 22 per cent and Besigye with 13 percent. RWI surveyed 2,042 respondents aged 18 years and above across Uganda.

FDC spokesperson Ibrahim Semujju Nganda said the poll was inaccurate but admitted that he would use its findings for internal research.

The poll was instructive because RWI is headed by Patrick Wakida, a known sympathiser of FDC. Critics of Besigye have also pointed out his anti-election rhetoric which is said to leave his supporters in confusion. Often, he has told the masses that the NRM junta cannot be uprooted using elections only for him to stand.

This was the message Besigye gave right before and after the 2016 elections. Before the 2016 elections, which Besigye says he won with a margin of 52%, he said he would guard his votes against the NRM state machinery.

So the criticism aimed at Besigye has been denouncing the viability of elections while at the same time claiming victory in the same elections.

Brian Atuheire, an unwavering supporter of Besigye says there is an anti-Besigye campaign in the media. “We have seen new candidates before. We saw it with Mao and Otunnu in 2011 and with Mbabazi in 2016. The new candidates with the support of the media have not won.”

Atuheire adds that people should focus their efforts on Museveni who first stood in 1980 and in 1996 before asking Besigye who came in 2001.

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