ANALYSIS: Lessons from Burundi’s SADC move

In Burundi’s case, the economic argument is strong because so far, it appears not to be benefiting from any intra-trade networks with other EAC partners.

Although it was officially admitted into the EAC in July 2007, together with Rwanda, it appears to have always been viewed cynically. At the time of joining, it was the only country in East Africa with significant internal conflict and a newly concluded civil war. Critics thought it was strange that the EAC was allowing Burundi in with such a past and present.

But Burundi supporters, led by President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, argued that membership of the EAC would help stabilise Burundi by expanding its economic and development opportunities and providing moral and political support to deepening its internal peace and reconciliation process.

The results have so far been mixed, especially with regards to human development and there is little evidence to show that Burundi’s entry into the EAC has improved its development indicators.

Prior to joining the EAC, Burundi’s poverty levels were between 65-70%. The most recent (2016) World Bank figures say Burundi ranks 180th out of 186 countries in terms of the human development index with nearly 65% of the population living below the poverty line.

Its economy is heavily reliant on agriculture which employs 90% of the population yet cultivable land is extremely scarce.  Food insecurity is alarming as the country ranks the lowest position in the 2013 Global Hunger Index.

Almost one in two households (around 4.6 million) is food insecure and over half of the children are stunted. Access to water and sanitation is very low and less than 5% of the total population has access to electricity.

So Golooba thinks Burundi can actually be better off if it is in two blocs because it could draw maximum dividends from membership in both.

Mwambutsya Ndebesa who teaches history and development studies at Makerere University in Kampala told The Independent that he does not think the Burundi government considered its move carefully.

“The reason I suspect they don’t know what they are doing is that SADC is about creating a free trade area but at the moment there are negotiations for a tripartite agreement between SADC and EAC within the COMESA framework to create a much bigger free trade area,” he said, “Burundi’s move to SADC has nothing to do with economics; it is politics.”

Ndebesa thinks Burundi could be using the threat of quitting the EAC as a bargaining chip to soften the EAC partners’ stance on Nkurunziza’s government. However, he says, Burundi’s courting of SADC could be a wrong move.

“It could be running away from the frying pan into the fire,” he said, “Burundi might think they are running away from the EAC politics but it will meet the politics of SADC which might actually be more no-nonsense.”

Ndebesa says, SADC appears to espouse more democratic values than the EAC and he does not think SADC would readily accept the “bad manners” of Burundi.

“I don’t know whether Burundi will be comfortable because it might have looked at the short term (but) it may not be that easy.”

Still, he says, if Burundi eventually is allowed into SADC, it might be better for Burundians even if it will not be good for Nkurunziza and company. He said SADC could nudge Burundi faster down the democratization path than the EAC which, he says, seems to be moving backwards.

But Fred Mukasa Mbidde, a Ugandan MP who represents Uganda in the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), opposes states being members of more than one regional body. He told The Independent on March 11that he does not see any political advantages available to Burundi in SADC because its “umbilical cord” is in East Africa.

Twinoburyo shares Mbidde’s view but with an economic dynamics perspective. He says Burundi’s smallest surface area, geographical distance, and poor economic structure are more at par in the EAC than in SADC.

He says Burundi is more integrated into the EAC through markets, labour, and trade and has limited potential to thrive in SADC in the short term.

For Jane Nalunga, the Country Director of the Southern and Eastern African Trade Negotiations Institute (SEATINI), Burundi’s move should signal to the EAC that it is challenging for regional integration to take root on the African continent.

Nalunga says EAC member states need to do more to make Burundi feel appreciated. For this Nalunga says, EAC must do something the flying geese do very well: have a leader.

She says in SADC, South Africa, with its 60% of the bloc’s GDP does that very well by supporting the bloc’s smaller countries like Swaziland and Lesotho.

“I have not seen any deliberate effort to pull-up Burundi by the other bigger members,” she says.

To illustrate, she points at basic issues like communication, where official documents and debates in the EAC use English and to a small extent Swahili.

Nalunga, who is also an expert on regional and national trade and investment policies and agreements, says she has on many occasions sat with Burundian delegates in regional meetings and she has observed how the issue of language affects their interactions with their partners in the EAC.

“They really struggle to speak English (and) those who attempt to speak often sound apologetic for not speaking good English,” Nalunga says, “How do you expect such delegates to push their national issues onto a regional forum?”

“The benefits accruing from membership to the EAC are far too few for Burundi,” she says.

Timeline of Burundi’s acts of protest within the EAC

• In April, 2015, Burundi’s political crisis explodes.
• Since 2015, Burundi has been boycotting EAC meetings over its differences with Rwanda
• In November 2015, Bujumbura recalled its representatives from EALA after the East African Parliament asked Burundi to halt the killings following the political crisis
• Burundi has sat out of the EAC-led Intra-Burundi Dialogue over the involvement of political rivals.
• In May 2016, Rwanda expelled more than 1,500 Burundians after they refused to be moved to refugee camps.
• In July 2016, a Burundian delegation pulled out of the 27th African Union Summit held in Kigali citing security concerns.
• In August 2016 Burundi breached the EAC trade agreement when the government barred merchandise-laden vehicles from crossing the border into Rwanda.
• In March 2017, five of Burundi’s nine MPs in EALA abstained from the session which ran from March 7-17 in Kigali.

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editor@independent.co.ug