ANALYSIS: River Nile politics

Meanwhile Henry Bazira, the Executive Director of the Water Governance Institute, a Kampala-based NGO told The Independent that Sisi’s approach is the correct move.

Bazira said Egypt is perhaps beginning to realise that the 1929 and 1959 colonial agreements were never made in the interest of the citizens of the upper Nile states like Uganda and Ethiopia.

For decades, the upper riparian countries in the Nile Basin have been demanding talks on how the waters of the world’s longest river can be used equitably.

In 2010, five upstream countries of the River Nile—Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Kenya signed the Cooperative Framework Agreement which seeks to repeal the 1929 and 1959 colonial treaties which gave Egypt and Sudan exclusive user rights over the Rive Nile waters.

The agreement which outlines principles, rights and obligations for cooperation, management and development of the Nile basin water resources wants to amend the governing principles of managing the River Nile based on the international rivers, such as the fair and equitable use of water and harmlessness.

But Sudan and Egypt have repeatedly expressed concerns that electricity and irrigation projects could affect their historical share of the water in the River Nile where Egypt was granted 55.5 billion cubic metres and Sudan’s 18.5 billion cubic metres.

Egypt has particularly been reluctant to sign away their rights related to River Nile as the North African country already suffers from an annual deficit of 21.5 billion cubic metres.

The contested clause emphasised in the 1929 and 1959 agreements clearly stipulates that countries in the upper Nile basin should not use water to the detriment of the downstream nations.

That clause meant that countries like Uganda and Ethiopia could not construct hydro-electric dams and open big irrigation projects without getting consent from Sudan and Egypt, something the upstream countries have been trying to oppose.

But in 2011, for instance, Ethiopia started building the 6,000MW capacity Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, one of the major tributaries that supply about 60% of the water that flows into the main River Nile— the main source of water for close to 90 million Egyptians. Uganda is also building two more power dams at Isimba and Karuma for a combined capacity of 788MW.

“The truth of the matter is that these countries have moved on and they can no longer be ruled by history and so, it is may be important for Egypt to agree with the members on how to manage the Nile because, it is a resource for all the countries along it,” Bazira told The Independent.

“Sisi is trying to negotiate for support from the upper riparian states which are in overwhelming support of the 2010 CFA,” he says, “By visiting individual countries in the upper Nile; Sisi is trying to buy allies in Egypt’s favour.”

“It is good for Egypt to rally with the rest when it comes to using the River Nile because with the current challenges of climate change, all these countries must sustainably benefit from the River Nile resource,” Bazira said.

Barenzi also agrees with Bazira saying Egypt seems to have realized that the 1929 and 1959 colonial agreements which mainly favoured Egypt and The Sudan are no longer tenable.

“These (agreements) need to be revisited because they have been overtaken by events,” Barenzi said.

For example, Barenzi says, at the time these agreements were signed, the upper riparian states were hardly populated and many were governed by the colonial power, Britain. He says, these countries have since grown their populations and this has caused tremendous pressure on the environment adjacent to River Nile yet the river needs an ecosystem that is well-preserved to the level of the period those colonial agreements were signed.

“If the people in the upper riparian countries cut down the trees and clear the vegetation around the river, the Nile will no longer retain the amount of water it had in the past and even though the colonial agreements stipulate the do’s and don’ts, the fact remains the water would reduce.”

In order to preserve the integrity and water security which Egypt cherishes, Barenzi says, engaging the upper riparian states in a sustainable way is definitely a good move by Sisi.

“Egypt’s involvement in the strategic stability of the riparian states could ensure that political conflicts do not affect the usage of the Nile waters,” he says, “Most importantly, Sisi wants to ensure that Egypt is now taken as a colleague and not a domineering partner in the Nile basin.”

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