Battle for 2016

When Museveni opened the issue for public debate, there were over 200 hands of NEC members springing to their feet to speak. The president stood up and asked all those who wanted to speak to line up. NEC is composed of about 500 members and over 200 people lined up to contribute. Museveni stood at the microphone for almost two hours listening to the contributions from the floor. One after another, and without a single exception, all the speakers defended Mbabazi.

Some said he is hard working. Others that he is disciplined; many claimed he had made the party efficient.

“Now the party even sends us buses to transport us from our home districts for NEC meetings,” some members said. A few delegates told Museveni that Mbabazi is the President’s right hand man. Others said those asking Mbabazi to resign one of the jobs are fighting the President and are also supporters of the opposition.

Museveni listened in silent wonderment. Many NEC members interviewed by The Independent say that listening to the chorus of support Mbabazi was receiving from the floor must have convinced the President that his secretary general had stolen the heart of the party from him – or was doing so.

After everyone had spoken, Museveni said that it is not “other people” asking Mbabazi to resign one post. The President said it was his (Museveni’s) wish that Mbabazi relinquishes one of the posts especially that of secretary general and remains prime minister. To conclude, Museveni said, let everyone rest. He, the President said, would resolve the matter.

If Museveni had any doubt about allegations that Mbabazi was building a powerbase in NRM, the theatrical performance of the prime minister’s enthusiasts confirmed his worst fears.

Mbabazi’s power base

Museveni also knew that Mbabazi had used his influence to recommend for appointment of many people to influential positions in government. So he had a base in the executive. He had also helped many NRM candidates win parliamentary and local council elections at district, sub-country and even parish level; so he had a base in the party structure.

It was also alleged that Mbabazi had used his position as security minister before he became Prime Minister profitably. Not only had he used intelligence services to penetrate the lowest ranks of the NRM and the country’s political structure, he had also build a wide array of operatives in local councils and the intelligence services to promote his ambitions.

Mbabazi’s victory in the 2010 election for SG of the ruling party was a culmination of these highly cultivated efforts. For Museveni who intends to run again in 2016, Mbabazi’s actions, real or imagined, posed a serious challenge to his plans.

For starters, Mbabazi became SG after defeating some of the most historical and/or influential members of the NRM – Otafiire, Kiyonga and Bukenya. Behind these men lies the Cardinal, Emmanuel Wamala and the Catholic Church (behind Bukenya) and such people as Jim Muhwezi and businessman Hassan Basajabala (behind Otafiire). It seems obvious that although a victor, Mbabazi remained insecure.

Some political observers argue that to solidify his position against these powerful NRM functionaries, Mbabazi began building a strong base in the party.

But then the law of unintended consequences set it. Museveni began getting reports that Mbabazi is building a base to challenge the president and the evidence was there. Thus, what may be have begun as Mbabazi’s desire to defend himself against an onslaught from the Otafiire-Bukenya-Muhwezi-Basajabala axis was now presented to Museveni as an effort to kick him out of State House.

Throughout his decades-long rule, the President has shown determination to secure his job, seeing upstarts with schemes to challenge him. Therefore, even an innocent effort by Mbabazi to solidify himself as SG is sufficient to raise suspicion that he is eyeing the top job.

Besides, some observers say, even if Museveni believed that Mbabazi’s efforts were purely aimed at consolidating his position as SG you can never be sure what would happen if those efforts were successful.

Assuming, as one close Museveni confidant told The Independent, that Mbabazi is successful in building this base in the party to protect his job as SG; then what? Is it not possible that such a base can give him second ideas about attempting to even capture the biggest prize of all – the presidency of the party? If you are Museveni, it is better to believe the worst case scenario and rather than let it blossom, you begin to put in place schemes to thwart it.

A close Museveni confidant argued that even if Museveni trusted the prime minister’s intentions, it cannot be 100 percent. Even if Museveni trusted Mbabazi 95 percent, he would maintain 5 percent skepticism to take precautions.

As a result, sources tell The Independent, Museveni’s precautions against his prime minister have proved disastrous for the effectiveness and efficiency of running government.

For example, Mbabazi does not have sufficient funds as prime minister to visit the country. His budget no longer provides for that. Second, his official communication using his mobile phone is limited to Shs200,000 a month which his office enforces with discipline and rigour.

Museveni has also starved NRM of all funds. This has been extremely effective since the president raises over 90 percent of the party’s finances. Whatever little money is available for the party, it is given to Minister without Portfolio, Richard Twadong, whom the president has informally appointed to act as his SG.

As Museveni kept stalking Mbabazi, sources say, the president discovered that Mbabazi has even set up a presidential election taskforce chaired by his sister-in-law, Hope Mwesigye.

The taskforce, which is composed of among others Dr. Augustin Nuwamanya meets every Saturday at China Bowl and has attracted a large collection of Mbabazi diehards including MPs, politicians who lost during the last parliamentary elections, NRM mobilizers, independents, activists and other well-wishers.

Mbabazi running out of time

Why would Mbabazi break ranks with Museveni at this time? In 2001, Mbabazi rebuked Col. Besigye for allegedly “jumping queue” of NRM presidential hopefuls.

Now sources say the prime minister realizes there is possibly no queue. Aged 67 years now, he will be 75 years in 2021, the age limit to run for the presidency. People who have spoken to him say Mbabazi believes it will be impossible to amend the constitution and remove the age limit as they did with the term limits. Therefore, if he does not try his lack now, he will miss the goal of his ambition – to be president.

Meanwhile, sources say Mbabazi’s group feels confident that their man can beat Museveni in an NRM primary. This is because they now have capacity to mobilise a majority of NRM voters at the party’s delegates’ conference.

However, the Mbabazi group has a Plan B, so insiders claim. If Museveni uses his influence to rig their man out of victory, they would immediately form a break-away faction of NRM which they hope to link up with Mugisha Muntu’s faction of the FDC to form a third force which they believe will split both parties right in the middle. This would leave NRM and FDC holding to their extremist fringes. This third force would emerge as the majority party which they hope will also attract many independents.

Reliable sources inside Mbabazi’s camp say that FDC is ripe for a divorce between the Muntu faction and the Kizza Besigye-Nandala Mafabi faction. The battle between the two groups is about approach to politics.

Muntu appeals to the moderates who feel they should try to win over independent and moderate NRM loyalists who think Museveni has overstayed in power. However, Muntu’s people argue that to achieve this, FDC would need to adopt a moderate posture and stop sounding angry and vengeful. Yet FDC’s support-base wants Besigye exactly because of his belligerent and angry tone especially his ability to denounce Museveni in the severest language.

Sources inside the Muntu camp claim that actually Besigye wants to run for the presidency for yet another time in 2016. To realise this goal, he has allegedly allied with Mafabi to undermine Muntu as president of the party.

According to this view, Besigye and Mafabi have a deal. If Mafabi becomes FDC president, he will not seek to be the party’s presidential candidate in 2016. This way, Besigye would be able to stand as the FDC presidential candidate since the party constitution does not necessarily require the party president to also be the party presidential candidate.

Besigye would then get former vice president Gilbert Bukenya as a running mate, a deal that has been discussed by the two sides or so intelligence sources claim. This means that 2016 could see a three way race where Museveni will fight two tickets led by his former allies, Mbabazi-Muntu ticket and Besigye-Bukenya ticket.

Mbabazi’s supporters believe that in such a scenario, Museveni would be most likely forced into a second round. Indeed, the prime minister’s camp believes Museveni would not survive a second round.

According to this reasoning, the aim of a second round is to undermine the myth of Museveni’s electoral invincibility. Once so exposed, it would make many army and security chiefs begin to calculate their chances of survival if they do not exercise independence during elections. And the military is Museveni’s trump card.

According to his supporters, Museveni would most likely face the Mbabazi-Muntu ticket in the second round.  Besigye’s supporters, who are staunchly anti-Museveni, are equally keen to see the President defeated and would have no option but to join the Mbabazi-Muntu ticket. This is a threat Museveni is also preparing for; how to defeat a second-round alliance of Muntu, Mbabazi, Besigye, and Bukenya.