Behind Brig Deus Sande’s outbursts

While serving as UPDF Member of Parliament Brig. Henry Tumukunde was punished when he suggested in 2005 that lifting the two-term presidential term limit would not be good for the country’s stability. Immediately Tumukunde was forced to resign as UPDF legislator and later court martialed and placed under house arrest for years.

Another Army MP, Col Fred Bogere abstained during the vote. Bogere was left to serve out his parliamentary term, but he was never deployed again until September 2015 when he was retired from the army alongside Tumukunde.

This selective application of the law applies more so on low ranking soldiers who are seen to be supporting opposition politicians. A recent case is soldier named Collins Muhame at the rank of corporal who was arrested in Fort Portal for expressing open support for NUP presidential aspirant Bobi Wine.

Beware of history

In a book published titled ‘Elections in a Hybrid Regime, Revisiting the 2011 Ugandan Polls,’ several academics in 14 academic papers tackle the issue of the military in Uganda politics.

The top political science professors at Makerere University and other international research bodies appear to agree with Museveni and his supporters; that it is impossible to remove Museveni from power through an election.

Commenting on the role of the military in influencing political outcomes in Uganda, Sabiti Makara, who is one of the editors of the book, notes that Museveni would have to be removed militarily. Makara said this is possibly why the most valued credential that Kizza Besigye boasted when challenged Museveni in the 2001 election was that he was an army officer. He could command an army.

The dons also appeared to argue that by bragging about his stranglehold on the army, Museveni is playing mind games with voters. Showing them that he is stronger and they are weak without an army. They say Museveni threatens post-election violence in case they do not vote him. The dons cite 2010 opinion polls which showed that 59 % of Ugandans were afraid that post-election violence would break out, with 73% opining that losers would reject electoral results.

But another political scientist, Lumumba Bwire, noted that Museveni’s boastful claims of having control of the army make him look like a bad student of Uganda’s political history.

Bwire notes that all eight governments in Uganda, except two, since independence in 1962 have been over-thrown in a military coup.

This has made Uganda the most coup-prone country in the region; with an average of a coup for every six years, before Museveni came to power in a coup in 1986.

Bwire adds that the late former President Milton Obote, who was twice overthrown by the army, had similar false confidence regarding his government’s susceptibility to a military coup.

Writing in 1968 in his ‘Myths and Realities: Letter to a London Friend’, Obote had bragged: “As regards the position of the Ugandan army, I am perhaps the only African leader who is not afraid of a military take over.”

At the time Obote, like Museveni today, had battered the opposition and thought he had outmaneuvered opponents both in the army and his party, UPC. But just two years later, Gen. Idi Amin, an army officer Obote had groomed and put in charge, overthrew him.

Some people think that statements by the likes of Brig. Sande serve to portray the state of affairs in the country.

“I don’t’ see why Ugandans should stress themselves over something as clear as that statement and have no solution over it. Do you honestly believe that we have genuine democracy in Uganda? Do you believe that the Electoral Commission as it is currently composed has the capacity to declare the right winner of the presidential election other than Museveni who appointed them? What did Ugandans do when the army and police prevented Besigye from moving immediately after the rigging of the 2016 elections? In my opinion I think the money spent on presidential elections should have been used to construct a very good hospital in a place like Karamoja because this is a concluded case,” a retired NRM politician who sought anonymity told The Independent.

He added that the military, the police and LDUs have been fused with government and thus exposing them to abuse. “They have been personalized and fused so much that it becomes so difficult to unfuse them from the ruling government. No wonder some of them are seen herding cows of the big people in government”

But while appearing for a meeting with media owners and managers recently, the UPDF Chief of Defence Forces, Gen David Muhoozi, said the statement made by individual soldiers don’t reflect the position of the institution.

Nicolas Opiyo, a human rights lawyer, says Ugandans must pity and not condemn senior army officers like Brig Sande because “they are trapped in the bush war syndrome of we fought syndrome.”