The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
Museveni’s speech bizarre?
It was not only Golooba-Mutebi who found Museveni’s victory speech quite puzzling. Bernard Sabiti, a researcher and public policy analyst also found it strange.
“For someone who had just won an election, I found his speech quite bizarre,” Sabiti told The Independent on Jan.21.
“I think President Museveni feels stung by the fact that this young man almost wiped out all the support he has enjoyed in Buganda for all these years,” he said, “That is why he thinks Bobi Wine brainwashed many youths in Buganda to vote for him.”
Sabiti told The Independent that he cannot compare Bobi Wine’s feat to Kabaka Yekka because beyond tribal heritage, there were many other reasons why Baganda voted for Kyagulanyi.
“It would be a big mistake to read into Bobi Wine’s win in Buganda using tribal lenses,” Sabiti told The Independent. Apart from Paul Ssemogerere in the 1996 presidential election, Museveni had never faced off with a formidable Muganda presidential candidate like he did this time.
Sabiti explained that there has been a growing antipathy towards the NRM party in Buganda over the recent years. “That is why the Baganda especially in urban areas have been voting for anyone who presents the biggest threat to the incumbent.”
Sabiti thinks the Baganda would still have voted for anyone who presented the biggest threat to President Museveni irrespective of the candidate’s ethnicity.
But Patrick Wakida, the executive director of Research World International, a Kampala-based polling agency, told The Independent on Jan.21 there is no doubt that voting in the just concluded presidential and parliamentary election was patterned along ethnic lines.
Wakida, however, quickly argues that it is wrong for Museveni to talk about Baganda being sectarian when you have a polling station where Museveni almost scores 100% in western Uganda.
Political analysts say voting patterns are complex phenomena which result from an interplay of varying factors in different circumstances. Charles Bwana in his paper: “Voting Patterns in Uganda’s Elections: Could it be the end of the National Resistance Movement’s domination in Uganda’s elections?” published in the online journal Les Cahiers d’Afrique de l’Est (The East African Review) in September 2009 says both objective factors that cut across a population and subjectively held sentiments determine the pattern of voting and the choices made in an electoral contest.
Bwana for instance attempted to contextualize the history of voting and emergent voting patterns since the NRM took over power in 1986. He looked at five national elections that have been under the NRM; elections in 1989, 1994, 1996, 2001 and 2006. In his analysis, he found that the greater part of northern Uganda had consistently voted against Museveni because of Museveni’s failure to bring peace.
One very consistent voting pattern is that in most of the elections held in Uganda, the northern part of the country has always voted against the NRM candidates and President Museveni. This is because in the early years of the NRM government, the NRA (now UPDF) went on a collision path with the population in northern Uganda resulting in the proliferation of insurgency groups.
“This instability and insecurity in northern Uganda has been the overriding factor for the indifference for the NRM and therefore the tendency to vote for the opposition candidates,” Bwana said, “On the other hand, the western and the central parts of the country have regularly voted in favour of President Museveni largely because of wanting to maintain the status quo of considerable peace and prosperity.”
Bwana also argues that Uganda’s old aged population appears to credit the NRM for maintaining some level of stability in Uganda as opposed to the period of political and constitutional instability during much of post-independence Uganda. On the other hand, the young voters judge the NRM not in comparison with Uganda’s past but on the basis of international standards of good governance and democratic practice.
Rather than look at Uganda’s checkered past and applaud the NRM, the young generation of voters has tended to rationalize about current problems affecting them and the failure on the part of the NRM to perform to their expectation.
In fact, Siranda says, a good portion of voters in this year’s election were young people who are not moved by the Luweero history. But also, Siranda adds, Museveni has made many unfulfilled promises to not only the people of Buganda but other regions of the country including Bukedi in eastern Uganda. This was a protest vote.
“This was a vote against unfulfilled promises.”
Just days to the election, Mwambutsya Ndebeesa, a lecturer of political science at Makerere University told URN that Kyagulanyi had the “home advantage” this time. “It is not going to be business as usual as it has been in the last 35 years,” he said.
Mwambutsya said even though the NRM still boasted of a sizeable support base, political support in Buganda had since shifted towards the opposition. Mwambutsya hinted that he would not rule out ethnic voting patterns and moods and emotions.
“Bobi being a Catholic and a youth from Buganda will obviously give him an advantage. He also has not carried the baggage of having been part of the NRM in the past like other candidates who have challenged Museveni before like Mugisha Muntu, Benon Biraro, Kizza Besigye, Amama Mbabazi and Gen. Henry Tumukunde from western Uganda. That will give him an advantage over the other challengers of Museveni.”
Museveni’s 10-Point Programme
When Museveni assumed power in 1986, he unveiled the 10 Point Programme which he said, traced Uganda’s problems to the fact that previous political leaders had relied on ethnicity and religion in decision making at the expense of development concerns. For decades, Uganda became polarized along tribal, religious and ethnic grounds.
The 10-Point manifesto condemned “sectarian, religious and tribal cleavages” as manufactured divisions claiming that “one’s religion, colour, sex or height” is not a consideration where new members are welcomed in the National Resistance Movement. Museveni said it was imperative to start growing the seed of unity and anti-sectarianism among Ugandans.
Among the solutions Museveni thought could help cure the sectarian tendencies amongst Ugandans was the adoption of a no-party system of government. That formula had worked until 2005 when Uganda returned to multi-party democracy.
In his 2005 paper, “‘Populism’ visits Africa: The Case of Yoweri Museveni and No Party Democracy in Uganda,” Giovanni Carbone says Museveni’s argument for a no-party model was that western representative democracy could hardly succeed in countries like Uganda where ethnic, linguistic and religious fragmentation combined with pre-industrial development and the lack of a modern class structure were a recipe for disaster. Has Museveni’s winning formula turned full circle?
Going forward, Wakida says, there are two emerging narratives. He says there is a group of people who think this country needs a transition while there is another group who think the status quo should remain.
For Siranda, it is important that a person who wins a hotly contested race calms down a nation which is at the moment too divided. President Museveni needs to come up with harmonising and reconciliatory messages and glue back the country, Siranda says.
“He needs to drop the arrogance and boy-headism. The more he talks about the sectarian tendencies, the more the people will coalesce around their communities.”
For Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, the FDC spokesperson, it would take a pretender not to accept that “things are happening in this country.”
“Instead of hiring crowds to celebrate his victory, he should be consuming the results the way others are consuming them,” Ssemujju said, referring to Museveni’s choreographed stopovers along the Kampala-Mbarara highway on Jan.21 as he returned to Kampala from his country home following his victory which will now keep him in power until 2026.
In 2026 Museveni will have ruled Uganda for 40 straight years. It will be a remarkable milestone for a president who once derided African presidents for overstaying in power.
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Honestly speaking, the issue of secterianism hinted on by the President is correct and shouldn’t be just dismissed. If the discussants cared to listen to the tone, messages, body language used by some candidates, the near genocide messages on social media, the actual physical targetting by goons during November rioting of people due to their tribes, the sermons in some churches, the physical threats, all coupled by the voting pattern, the writing becomes clear on the wall. I don’t think that there has been ethnicity-targeted talks , threats, and attacks in the recent past anywhere in Uganda compared to here in Buganda. TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE. Without accepting that there is a problem, it may be difficult to find a solution for it.
Tribalism played arole in this election,, it is true that sentimentalism overpowered reason in this election to the extent that people from western region of the country became a target from Bobi Wine supporters! This is my humble prayer, we need an opposition that will liberate the country as a whole including the western region of the country.
We must face the truth! Sectarianism took center stage and that is why Bobi Wine failed!
It’s disappointing to generalize Buganda or Baganda with regards to sectarianism in voting. This may imply that those that contributed to the 35.91% are not appreciated and are intentionally being pushed into hating to stand with Buganda to vote for Museveni, if they’re not Baganda, or hating to participate in voting, if they’re Baganda and Museveni supporters.
Sectarianism should be questioned starting from the ministry of internal affairs who fail to recognize Ugandans as Ugandans but not Ugandans as Acholis, Baganda, Banyankole e.t.c (i.e. passport forms, police statements)
Let a study be carried out to identify the most tribalistic region comparing rural to rural and urban to urban.
Everything in Uganda is happening majorly in buganda. The land fragmentation is happening here in buganda. When the baganda speak they are being tribalistic. If a muganda went and contested in arua, would he get any support there? It’s here in buganda that we see candidates who are not baganda contesting and some being voted. Which other region does that. Before we judge baganda for sentimentalism and tribal prejudice, we ought remember that we are all culprits. And actually for many years people of other regions have always cast a protest vote against any muganda presidential candidate because they have been made to think that if a muganda is president then the kabaka will be president. This is an absurd argument. There is a clear distinction. We shouldn’t pull the kabaka into this discussion. Being Ugandans we all have our own traditional leaders who we cherish as custodians of our cultural values. Why should the kabaka be victimized for that.
If museveni had majority support in the west why’s it tribalistic for kyagulanyi to have majority votes in the central. My prayer is that we stop calling baganda tribalistic.
I don’t think what you’re saying is entirely correct. There are a number of baganda in western Uganda in: Bushenyi, Itendero, Kaabwoohe, Nyamunuuka, Ntungamo, Kakoba in Mbarara. And in these areas, these people have been severally elected to political offices. For example, the Basajjabalaba family.
What I find to be an extension of tribalism is that majority of these baganda that get elected to political offices in these areas of western Uganda are voted for by baganda majory, implying the same tribalism extended. Whether we like it or we don’t, tribalism is a cancer with us and among us. The other fact is that regions with cultural institutions tend to be more tribalistic than those that font have, because they have to preserve their strength, identity and influence.
Unless you don’t really what tribalism mean,am not seeing sense in all your argument.
Then sectarianism should also be thought of in WESTERN UG coz almost 80% went for M7.
Why are we one-sided when describing “sectarianism politics ” we should be talking about all sides of the country
“Why are the Baganda sectarian this time when they have always voted for him?” Previously, the Baganda voted together with other diverse ethnicities for just causes. But this time they formed their own party (NUP) and voted for themselves. Their sentiments have for nearly four years been sectarian. At least after Kyagulanyi’s loss for the presidency, they seem to recognize M7 by his ethnic identity as a Ugandan. Before that, they had sought to foreignize him and even suggested that all people from the Ankole sub-region were foreigners and not Ugandans. The sectarian voting pattern has effectively set the Baganda apart from other Ugandans. They plotted to exclude other Ugandans from working with them. They met in their inner circles and agreed not to work with those “foreign” to Buganda. At the same time, they went about trying to persuade the world that it was the country’s youth seeking to overtake the “regime” of old people. They even persuaded the world through social media that they had 80% of support in the country because Uganda has the world’s youngest population. The foreigners who did not know the voting culture believed their lie and promoted it as a done deal that Uganda was having a “youth revolution”. However, it has turned out that some backward ethnic chauvinistic ideas were the ones driving NUP. Kyagulanyi himself is only a singer. He knows more about nightclubs, cocaine, marijuana, and alcohol especially when on the stage. Not many people can trust a man straight from the night club to lead the country. That would be political suicide for Uganda. Even the Baganda themselves have a leader in their Kabaka. Kyagulanyi was merely an instrument for many of the Baganda candidates to go to parliament. Parliament has become a money minting machinery for those who chance to get there. I talked to one Ugandan in a district in eastern region who said they could not vote for Kyagulanyi. When asked why she posed a question, “Can Bobi Wine rule over the Kabaka, knowing he’s his subject?” I was then speechless.
By the way, Victor, a good number of nonbaganda that voted NUP did not realize that they were misled thinking they were voting for change via Kyagulanyi, until it became clear from the voting pattern that Kyagulanyi & NUP are simply a reincarnation of a baganda nationalism (KY). But some of us saw it earlier when annointing visits were made to religious and cultural institutions not in any other part of Uganda, but only in Buganda, yet this candidate was presumably contesting to be president for the entire Uganda. How can one explain this? I even think that after this realization by voters, if elections were to be held again now, some of the nonbaganda that voted Kyagulanyi/NUP would not vote it again.
Good obervation
Silly talk only you people when innocent masses are being massacred you mean you don’t mind coz they’re in Buganda.???
Let me believe that you will get what to say say when your personal relative shall have died coz of police brutality. There you can speak about voting on marginalisation and say who is bad and who is good
Whilst Kyagulanyi is married to a munyankore, Museveni is married to a fellow mulaalo. When his son Muhoozi wanted to marry, he actively encouraged him to at least marry his cousin but not from any other tribe of Uganda. In the whole of Museveni’s imediate family, you won’t find anybody from another tribe, all are balaalo. In the whole of Uganda it’s only in Buganda and a few parts of Bunyoro where you can find people being elected without being members of the local indigenous tribe. In all other areas it’s taboo; a Muhoozi or a Mosoke being elected in Moroto or Arua? A Sekandi being elected in Ankole? You find many clusters of Baganda in Ankole; in Mbarara, Kabwohe, Bushenyi, Rugaaga, Isingiro but no muganda can be elected in these places yet Buganda has elected many non Baganda for a long time, including the Acholi, Banyankole, banyarwanda etc. Museveni, because of selfishness won’t see this; he is only interested in himself!
Lies. Who was there when Museveni was allegedly ‘encouraging’ his son to marry his cousin? Are you wear that Gen Waley recently lost his wife, who was from Gulu?
You are just a Muganda chauvinist and extremist. If Muhoozi married his “cousin” their culture perhaps allows it. Don’t include Banyoro in your tribal nonsense. The Baganda had even snatched some counties of Bunyoro to impose their language, culture, and names there. The tribalists have now officially been identified by how they voted and they should be left alone to do their thing. Let’s imagine if oil had been discovered in Buganda, they would have said, this is “ebyaffe”. Stop defending tribal bigotry. Stop being defensive. You guys have shown your true colours that you don’t vote share what you have with others, in that you have a tribal party that was masquerading as a national one, “National Unity Party”. Rename it “Buganda/Baganda Unity Party, BUP”. Officially make it BUP and register it afresh instead of the false picture of NUP.
Victor u seem annoyed . How come it was fine when Baganda voted m7 all the time now they are tribalistic when they voted Bobi
West has always M7 and they are not tribal really.?
What Museveni wants you to believe is what makes him stay in power but remember these ststements and ugandas dare to read and these references can shape your talk.
1.He said we cannot give up power to by just ballot papers meaning he will do anything with the incumbency and state machinery to rig,to bully opposition and smeer them with all unproductive sentiments to make people believe he is the right candidate for the high office.
2.Ugandans if you read his doctored book the mustard seed you find that Museveni came in power with war monger tactics of the bush with scanty knowledge to govern this ciuntry and was seeking that knowledge from then Mwalimu Julius Nyerere and a certain aide to help him to steer the country Uganda.You can atleast remember we had wars with neighbours and he even invaded Congo for his own gain and afew of his military inner circle to gain from the loot but at the expense of the country.
3.Ugandans if you know you geography and history well and a someone comes up with a statement saying Kampala is not part of Buganda kingdom ;is that a lie ,fact or that someone is trying to insult your intelligence or fooling you to believe what he wants you to believe.Top leaders who stay in power unwarranted by the people they lead always using the helm to paint lies because he being at the top he can be listened to the more or can misguide the people into something for his own benefit.e.g People in America have died of covid because of Trump’s lies so the power of a leader’s tongue who wants to cling on power the more just like our general here who seeks to have his death bed while in state house can have a devastating effect costing life in numbers .People are shot dead in uganda because they protested their candidate is arrested even when they have a right to protest the constition has it ;they are painted to be terrorists are shot in their own country.with the quote”orders from above”.
4.Ugandans we should give credit to central original dwellers (Baganda)who have stood with all walks of life from other parts of uganda and have given refuge withstanding all concequences but with good will to make you stand in brotherhood and sisterhood to carry on with your lives abundantly ;those people are not here by mistake but God had all the answers why so Museveni DONT TAKE THEM FOR GRANTED they have their own say they can choose they own leaders you cannot hate them for that but for comparison purposes you in Nrm you have crashed democracy in your own camp come sunshine;come rain no one can stand against as a flag bearer for the party .WHEN CAN IT HAPPEN?WHEN YOU ARE DEAD?I THINK YOU CONTEMPLATED IT HAPPEN WHEN YOU HAVE COME FOOD FOR THE WORMS .THINK HARD BECAUSE WHAT I FORESEE THIS US THE LOST YOU HAVE ENDURED
This is stuff that has repeatedly been spewed out by Dr Kiyingi, the doctor that murdered her wife Robinah in cold blood. Contemptible.
You claim rioters were shot for rightfully and peacefully protesting the detention of their leader Bobi. Are equally aware that these same ‘peaceful’ demonstrators ransacked shops, undressed women, robbed people on their illegal blocks of money, burnt down Nakaseke High Court building, shattered and burnt down vehicles carrying passengers just bcz they were coming from the west, sexually molested women, attacked security personnel on duty including clobbering a lady police officer with a hammer etc?? What would such goons deserve? Do you think that when you get to power (God forbid), you’re going to close down prisons, disband police, prisons, and army, because your regime will be one without laws?? Better wait for that time. But for the present, govt won’t allow goons to endanger lives of Ugandans.
Then sectarianism should also be thought of in WESTERN UG coz almost 80% went for M7.
Why are we one-sided when describing “sectarianism politics ” we should be talking about all sides of the country
Sometimes I wonder these sectionalism talk, let us look at issues that is why I don’t vote NRM, because look at public expenditure is so high for God sake why this big parliament, let us compare to Tanzania which is almost five times bigger than Uganda, its members of parliament are 393, Uganda we are going 500, look at these RDCs, looking big V8 vehicles ministers driving worth 600M , and yet external debt is increasing so at end of the day revenue collected will pay interest on burrowed money and cater for public expenditure which is useless hence population we lack good services such as good Medical care or put this money to innovators such we build local knowledge and start our own factories . Look at failed government institutions which are not independent and look at corruptions on increase case global fund, army junk helicopters and many forms of Corruption
Indeed elections in buganda wasn’t sectarian but revealed the pain they have endured over the years. Massacring of over 50 innocent baganda who were in support of Bobi, polarisation of the country i.e the Western Uganda 🇺🇬 against the rest of the nation. The west is treated as superior in all aspects, look at resource allocation, heads of major government departments and agencies, the army, police, education,
Wait until the people you are defending revert to calling you the Badokolo, badudugu! Then you’ll have a glimpse of their tribal bigotry.
Can a Muganda be president. Am a Muganda. How best can I be Muganda president.
I believe who ever becomes president, will surround them self with fellow tribes men that’s the trend in African politics there is no doubt about that. Cultural institutions will most probably come to play in such administrations at the cost of others. The big man never thought of the repercussions of restoring some institutions, now he has to deal with it. We have more dividing factors than unifying. Which is a weak point for a small country like ours.
I just doubt the DP defectors would’ve joined NUP if Mr Wine was a Langi.