COVER STORY: Hoima and 2021 election battles

The alleged rigging by opposition, he said, is partly due to the weaknesses of the NRM in terms of organisation ─ inspecting the registers of voters to discover the imported voters, using exercise books to record people that come to vote and comparing the list to the votes in the box among others.

He said that the opposition rigging machinery was aided by a police force that had been infiltrated by, Kawukumi (pests).

Asked to comment on allegations that the opposition engaged in cheating as Museveni put it, Semujju said Museveni should not lie – at his age. The President is 75 years old.

As the accusations and counter-accusations raged, election observers such as Crispin Kaheru, the coordinator of Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda (CCEDU) issued verbose statements.

CCEDU said that whereas the opposition parties and formations benefited a great deal from uniting behind a single candidate, the NRM leveraged its access to (and use of) state resources including government vehicles, and public officers to campaign for, and get the NRM candidate announced as winner in the Hoima District Woman MP By-election.

He said there is a likelihood that allegations and realities of occurrences such as circulation of pre-ticked ballot papers in favour of the NRM candidate (on polling day), arrests of agents from the opposition parties (for whichever reason) and the partisan involvement of some security agents to the point of attempting to subvert the will of the people in some areas within Hoima, affected the election and how it later turned out to be.

“It is possible that these issues could in future be brought up to query the credibility of the Hoima District Woman MP By-election,” Kaheru said in a notice.

NRM losing Hoima

What is not in dispute is that, despite the win, the numbers are the worst result for NRM in Hoima. It is the worst historical performance.

The opposition also won a majority; four out seven LC-3 chairperson position in Hoima and swept the grassroots sub-county councilor positions; 35 out of 47. The NRM swept the higher offices of LC-5 councillors; 11 out of 12.

Compare that with the outcome of another election that was held the same day in Kaabong District, northeast Uganda. In Kaabong the NRM won the District Woman MP seat, all six LC-3 chairpersons positions, all 8 LC-5 Councilors positions, and all 27 sub-county councilors.

The numbers show that the opposition is gaining more political ground in Hoima as its vote tally has increased while that of NRM has slipped– even after considering that the district has been chopped into two.

For instance, in the 2016 general elections, the NRM candidate who won the Hoima district woman representative seat (Tophace Byagira Kaahwa) garnered 96, 277 votes beating the FDC candidate (Rehemah Nabisere) with a very big margin of 86, 498. Nabisere, who only got 9, 779 votes, was not even in the second position.

Based on such results and others across the country where they have won elections, the opposition says they are ready to defeat Museveni and his NRM party in 2021.

But Museveni is equally determined to defeat the opposition. That sets the stage for what many say will be a contest requiring sweat, organization – and guarding the vote.

Tough times ahead

Opposition leaders that have spoken to The Independent since the Hoima results have pointed to working as one unit, with one common agenda – to oust Museveni.

Alaso said that key lesson learned from Hoima is that whenever the opposition come together and pool resources; they win.

She says come 2021 all efforts should be put on a joint candidate to ensure Museveni leaves.

“I am convinced Museveni’s time is up,” she said, “God has a plan….as a party we continue to mobilise ahead of 2021.”

Gerald Siranda, the Democratic Party Secretary General agrees with Alaso.

“For us, that was a referendum and we believe…this is a reflection that nobody can defeat Museveni without a joint effort,” he told The Independent.

He said the NRM’s narrow win in Hoima; amidst their state machinery, “shows that people have woken up”.

He said “the regime did whatever it takes to win and use this as an insulator to show that they are still in control”.

“The country must worry because the base that Museveni has now is the gun and the money,” he said.

He said it is going to be tough in 2021 because Museveni is going to be the candidate himself.

“If he has sampled us on an election where he is not a candidate we expect more than that when he is a candidate,” he said.

Ahead of 2021, Siranda said, the opposition is pushing for electoral law reforms. They want an independent Electoral Commission, clear understanding of the role of the UPDF in the electioneering process, a special police for the electoral process, and allowing devices like mobile phones at polling areas. They also want presidential election results declared at polling station level and then tallied at constituency level like is done in the neighboring Kenya.