Museveni’s election strategy

Targeting new MPs

But a double blow appears to have been inflicted on this strategy in just one month – October. First, the NRM primaries threw up new faces who are largely unknown quantities. This means Museveni, who has often insisted that you should not change a winning team, will be running the 2016 campaign with an unknown and untested team.

Then on Oct.30, the Supreme Court ruled that even if an MP is expelled from a political party upon which one was elected to parliament, it does not automatically mean they lose their seat in Parliament. In what has been described as a landmark, the court quashed an earlier decision by the Constitutional Court.

Lawyers for the petitioners said the ruling frees MPs from the stranglehold of party bosses.

“The ruling will enforce discipline on party leaders to learn to be accommodative,” said one of the lawyers, Peter Walubiri.

“I think that the MPs in the next Parliament will be freer,” said Dan Wandera Ogalo, another renowned lawyer, “It also sends a clear message to them (MPs) that they are in Parliament to speak for the people that voted them and not for Political Parties.”

The new MPs mean Museveni will have challenges of acclimatisation if he wins the 2016 election. The court ruling meanwhile means he has lost part of the stick he has in the past used to beat them into line. He needs new tricks. But he has been there before.

Soon after his election in 2011, he faced a tough-talking parliament dominated by the so-called young Turks and a speaker who appeared determined to enforce legislative independence. It was tough early days as MPs debated the oil bribery scandal, the death of young vocal MP Cerinah Nebanda, and later Public Order Management bill and the Anti-homosexuality law. In the end, Museveni tamed them.

This time, when it emerged that over 20 new comers and returnees had trounced a host of incumbents including 12 ministers in the primaries, the fears of newcomers returned.

Inside the NRM, speculation lingers over whether the newcomers are strong enough to beat opposition candidates. Can Daniel Kyazze (Ragga Dee) beat the opposition candidate for KCCA Lord Mayor, the incumbent Erias Lukwago?

The older party stalwarts they defeated may have grown complacent within the party, but their experience, thick financial muscles, and control of the state apparatus owing to their many years in government, counted in contests with the oppositions.

The newcomers meanwhile are stepping into positions favoured by past results. Early this year, the polling agency Research World International (RWI) released a report showing that a majority of the voters want change. Also, a 2013 parliamentary report showed that in the 2006 elections, out of 303 MPs only 144 returned to parliament putting the attrition rate of incumbents at 53%. In the 2011 elections, of the 332 MPs, only 150 returned to the 9th parliament, putting the attrition rate of incumbents at 55%. There is no reason for 2016 to be different.

What the attrition rate shows is that out of 10 MPs, 6 do not return to parliament. This shows that fresh contestants have a bigger chance of coming to parliament than an incumbent has of retaining their seat.

Defeating incumbents and ministers in the NRM primaries has become a trend. In 2010, several ministers and party stalwarts were walloped by minions. Michael Mawanda Maranga, defeated Dr. Richard Nduhura, then state minister for Health to take Igara East. Nduhura had represented Igara East since 2001.

Wilberforce Yaguma Rutashokwa, beat Urban Tibamanya, the State minister for Urban Development in the race to seek NRM’s endorsement in Kashaari County. Yonah Nsubuga beat Ian Kyeyune to win the NRM endorsement for his candidature in the Wakiso district LCV race.

Eng. Yorokam Bategana Katwiremu, beat incumbent minister Prof Ephraim Kamuntu. Cerinah Nebanda beat Dorothy Hyuha in the Butaleja district woman MP race. Eddie Kwizera beat Ethics minister James Nsaba Buturo in Bufumbira East.

Vincent Bagiire beat Aggrey Bagiire, the State Minister for Agriculture for Bunya West. Muhammad Nsereko, who beat veteran politician Francis Babu and Nakawa RDC Fred Bamwine to win the NRM ticket to run for the Kampala Central parliamentary seat.

Maurice Kibalya beat Lands junior minister Asuman Kiyingi to carry the NRM flag in Bugabula South. Raphael Magyezi, also beat Prof. Tarsis Kabwegyere to become the NRM flag bearer in Igara West. Fox Odoi, beat George William Oketcho to claim the NRM ticket in West Budama North in Tororo.  And Saleh Kamba defeated state Minister for Water Jennifer Namuyangu in the NRM primaries.

Looking at this trend, observers say any of the losers could easily have lost against any serious opposition candidate. The losers include ministers like Tarsis Kabwegyere (General Duties), Sarah Opendi (Health), Francis Babu (NRM Vice Chairman Kampala),  Nyombi Thembo (ICT), David Migereko (Lands), Jessica Alupo (Education), Seezi Mbaguta (Public Service), Vincent Nyanzi (Office of the President), Sulaiman Madada (Elderly) Flavia Munaaba (Environment), Asuman Kiyingi (State Minister of Works) and Peter Nyombi (the former Attorney General).

The losers can petition. However, so far the party electoral commission has received only 11 petitions contesting the results. These pale significantly in comparison with the 1500 petitions of 2010. Kahinda Otafiire has petitioned, together other high profile losers.

Museveni, who has in the past said his party is like its symbol, the bus, with people disembarking while new ones board, is urging them to accept the vote results. He appears to be going ahead full blast, or as his supporters would say, `paka last’ – in unstoppable fashion. The party secretary general, Kasule Lumumba, has already warned losers in the primaries not to dare run as independents. It is a shallow threat, as there is no law barring them.

Pundits claim their departure gives Museveni an opportunity to dangle their positions to newcomers. They say Museveni wins tones of support whenever he appoints a new MP as minister for the first time. Before current Minister of State for Economic Monitoring, Henry Banyenzaki, and Chris Baryomunsi of Health were appointed ministers, they were acerbic critics of government. The jobs silenced them. Museveni has mastered using cash and cane to control parliament and the new comers will be even more vulnerable if he wins in 2016.