Fear of renewed war in South Sudan

Juba tense after arrest of opposition politicians, army generals

COVER STORY | THE INDEPENDENT & AGENCIES | The political situation in South Sudan’s capital, Juba, is tense following the arrest of politicians and to army generals aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar.

The unrest comes amid growing concerns over instability in parts of South Sudan, particularly in Nasir County, where tensions have occasionally flared.

The security situation in Nasir County in Upper Nile State has been unstable since mid-February, following clashes between members of the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the White Army, a militant group allied to the Nuer, Machar’s ethnic group.

The White Army fought alongside Machar’s forces in the 2013-2018 civil war that pitted them against predominantly ethnic Dinka troops loyal to President Salva Kiir Mayardit.

The White Army on March 04 attacked and overrun Nasir Town.

The arrests also followed a high-level presidential meeting to address escalating security concerns in Nasir, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal states.

In an effort to de-escalate rising tensions in those areas, South Sudan’s Presidency convened a high-level meeting onMarch 03, chaired by President Salva Kiir Mayardit.

Machar had in a letter dated February 27, 2025 called for urgent dialogue with Kiir to address worsening security conditions, particularly in Upper Nile and Western Equatoria states.

Machar’s letter also suggest that South Sudan was stuck in a political deadlock and made a call for external mediators, according to reports in the South Sudanese media.

The extended meeting included key political figures such as First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar, Vice President for the Economic Cluster Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel, Vice President for the Service Cluster Josephine Lagu, and leaders of various political parties.

The leaders agreed that soldiers from the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) en route to Nasir County should proceed without disruption. The deployment aims to replace long-standing forces stationed in the area, according to officials.

Following the meeting, Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth addressed the media, stressing the leaders’ commitment to national unity.

“The leaders agreed to cooperate for the sake of the nation,” he said.

Minister Makuei also called for community cooperation along the route from Malakal to Nasir County, urging locals to facilitate the safe passage of the troops.

Puot Kang, Minister of Petroleum and a leading member of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO), echoed this appeal. He urged residents to ensure the forces reach their barracks in Nasir without incident, emphasizing the need for collective efforts to maintain peace.

Civil society representative Edmond Yakani described the meeting as “positive and cordial,” highlighting its focus on public education about the importance of peace.

“This dialogue is a step forward in fostering understanding and unity among communities,” Yakani said.

The Presidency also issued a broader appeal, urging citizens to avoid spreading harmful propaganda on social media, which it said could worsen tensions.

The advance of the White Army, after clashes with government forces, and their claim to control Nasir, a town near the Ethiopian border, has raised concerns about further instability in the region.

Tensions escalated further after the government decided to send additional forces, including elements of the Agwelek militia group led by General Johnson Olony.

Local communities have expressed fears that the deployment could lead to civilian targeting or a disarmament campaign. They have called for the deployment of the Necessary Unified Force, as outlined in the 2018 peace agreement, rather than the current forces.

In Western Equatoria State, unrest and insecurity have risen recently after President Kiir unilaterally removed SPLM-IO-affiliated governor Gen. Alfred Futuyo.

Government forces deployed in Nasir County state have been under attack from the White Army since the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) attempted to replace its soldiers who had been stationed in Nasir town. The army said they had stayed in the area for long and needed to be replaced.

“There had been skirmishes for some time, so the government decided to send a force to replace the existing troops. However, a negative campaign spread, claiming the new forces were sent to disarm civilians,” said South Sudan’s Minister of Information, Michael Makuei Lueth.

Nasir County is largely under the control of the SPLM-IO. Only Nasir town has not been under their control. Makuei said even the SPLM-IO had requested the transfer of the forces. But when the transfer was being done, the forces came under attack from the White Army.

On the same day, senior military officers from the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) of Machar were detained at the SSPDF headquarters in Juba.

Army generals arrested

The arrested include Gen. Gabriel Duop Lam who is the co-chair of the Joint Defense Board (JDB), Deputy Chief of Staff of the SSPDF, and acting Chief of Staff of the SPLA-IO. He was held at BILPAM military headquarters.

The other SPLA-IO officers who were put under house arrest are Gen. Koang Gatkuoth Kerjiok, Inspector General of the SSPDF, Gen. Wesley Welebe, Assistant Chief of Staff for Supply, Gen. Ashhab Khamis Fahal, Assistant Chief of Staff for Moral Orientation, and Gen. Garang Ayii Akol, Director General of Procurement at the Ministry of Defense and Veterans Affairs, and a representative of the SSOA.

In the wee hours of Wednesday March 05, security personnel also picked up South Sudan Petroleum Minister Puot Kang from his residence in the Thongpiny suburb of Juba, according to his press secretary, Sirir Gabriel.

Analysts say any eruption of renewed fighting between forces allied to President Silva Kiir and those of Riek Machar could deal a big a blow to the country’s peace process and scuttle the general elections slated for December 2026.

Government security operatives from the National Security Service led by Army Chief General Paul Nanquen have intensified a crackdown on pro-Machar leaders, sending South Sudan’s main opposition group into a state of panic with many of them either arrested, in hiding, or fleeing outside the country.

Among those arrested is the National Minister of Peace Building, Stephen Par Kuol. He was arrested together with his bodyguards and a secretary in his office.

Later the same day, numerous other SPLM-IO members were arrested at their homes, according to sources. Security forces also maintained a presence around Machar’s residence in Juba.

The Information Minister, Michael Makuei Lueth, who is senior member of President Salva Kiir’s SPLM Party, told a press conference the same day that the senior SPLM/A-IO officials were arrested because they were in conflict with the law.

“There is no joke about that. What we need is security. If anybody is arrested, it is for a reason. If you are in conflict with the law, it means you are accused of violating its provisions,” he said. “Once you are in violation, you are automatically in conflict with the law and subject to arrest and court proceedings.”

The SPLM-IO condemned the detention of Duop by Army Chief General Paul Nanquen, saying it violated the revitalized peace agreement.

“The People’s Movement in opposition… considered the action… in the illegal detention of… Gabriel Duop Lam, to be a violation of the revitalized peace agreement,” said a statement signed by SPLM-IO spokesperson Pal Mai Deng.

The statement said the detention of Duop Lam, who also serves as co-chair of the Joint Defense Board, was “illegal” and “endangers the entire agreement.”

The statement also expressed concern over “heavy army deployments” around Machar’s residence, saying such actions undermined trust and risked jeopardising efforts to calm violence in Nasir County..

The SPLM-IO called for Duop Lam’s release and urged all parties to work towards ending the violence. “The People’s Movement in opposition… affirmed its full commitment to implementing the revitalized agreement,” the statement said.

Oil exports disrupted

South Sudan’s civil war, which erupted just two years after the country gained independence from Sudan, killed an estimated 400,000 people, drove 2.5 million from their homes and left almost half the nation’s 11 million citizens struggling to find enough food.

A peace deal struck in 2018 has mostly avoided outright fighting between Kiir and Machar’s forces, though localised violence routinely flares up.

Daniel Akech Thiong, senior analyst on South Sudan at the International Crisis Group, told Reuters that the oil-rich country appeared to be on the brink of war, fuelled by increased access to weapons due to the conflict in neighbouring Sudan.

“The fragile peace that has maintained a delicate balance among competing armed leaders since 2018 is at risk of collapsing,” he said.

The war in Sudan has also disrupted South Sudan’s oil exports, which represented 90% of its foreign exchange earnings.