Finance: Average Ugandan to earn shs4.9m by mid 2026

Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | The government has a spending plan that should ensure an average Ugandan earns 1,338.7 US Dollars or 4.9 million shillings per year by the end of 2025/2026.

Currently,  the per capita income of Uganda stands at 1,046 dollars (3.85 million shillings) as at the end of June 2024, according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), and is expected to rise to 1,236.7 (4.534 million shillings).

The Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development says the country’s economic value (GDP) is expected to expand to 250 trillion shillings or 66.1 billion dollars in financial year 2025/26.

Currently, the ministry puts the GDP at 222.7 trillion shillings (equivalent to 59.3 billion dollars) by the end of this financial year (2024/25).

This growth is expected to be powered by 57.44 trillion shillings resource envelop, according to the National Budget Framework Paper 2025/26, which is lower by 14.7 trillion than that for the current budget of 72.1 trillion.

For the third year running, the ministry says there will be no new taxes introduced next year.

The theme of the NBFP 2025/26 is “Full Monetization of Uganda’s Economy through Commercial Agriculture, Industrialization, Expanding and Broadening Social Services, Digital Transformation and Market Access”

The Ministry says this is consistent with the Fourth National Development Plan (NDPIV) which runs from next year for the next five years, as well as the Charter for Fiscal Responsibility. It also satisfies the requirements of gender, equity responsiveness and balanced development.

As is with all precious budgets this planned expenditure will be financed using both domestic and external resources.

Domestic resources are projected to increase by 1.7 trillion to 33.68 trillion shillings next year from the 31.98 trillion planned for this year “on account of strong economic growth and widening of the tax base,” says the ministry .

It is still uncertain whether the current year’s revenue targets will be met. Uganda’s revenue deficit for the 2023/2024 financial year was over 1.9 trillion shillings.

Minister of State for Finance, Henry Musasizi says the ministry is going to strengthen measures aimed at strengthening revenue collection by Uganda Revenue Authority and the non tax revenue (NTR) collecting agencies.

The economy is projected to grow by 6.4 percent at the end of 2024/25, and faster to at least 7 percent in 2025/26 and to double digits at the onset of commercial production of oil and gas.

The key drivers of this growth are investments in the ten-fold economic growth areas (ATMS): Agro-Industrialization and light manufacturing; Tourism development; Mineral-based industrial development including Oil and Gas and Science, Technology and Innovation.

The paper says that specifically, the budget will prioritize investments in the fundamentals: peace and security, roads, railways, electricity, irrigation, reducing the cost of capital, human capital development in health and education, international relations and disaster management as well as the ATMS.

*****

URN