Global upheavals and renewal – a review of 2023

BEIJING | Xinhua |  As the New Year’s ball is about to drop, let’s review the passing year.

This was a year of upheavals: Global economic growth hit the brakes, the geopolitical landscape shook with increasing intensity, regional conflicts erupted like wildfire, humanitarian crises worsened, and a web of traditional and non-traditional security risks emerged.

In the midst of the turmoil, divisions, opposition, confusion, hesitation, and anxiety loomed large. Instability and uncertainty gripped this ever-changing world, forcing humanity to forge a new path forward, carrying with it the promise of hope and renewal.

More and more players on the international stage have joined China’s calls for joint actions in addressing the various global risks and challenges to deliver a bright future of peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit for future generations.

GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS FLARE UP

The world witnessed the emergence of multiple geopolitical flashpoints in 2023, creating an atmosphere fraught with tension and opposition.

According to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think tank, in 2023, as much as 183 regional conflicts occurred in the world, a record high annual number in the past three decades.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to drag on, with both sides in a state of exhaustion and only the United States reaping the benefits.

By pulling strings in Congress to secure military aid for Ukraine, the United States aims to weaken Russia’s power through proxy.

With Ukraine being drained of resources, and Russia gradually adapting to the new normal of warfare, the spillover effects of the conflict continue to chip away at the very fabric of global security.

According to United Nations (UN) statistics, civilian casualties have exceeded 10,000 in the 21 months since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

However, despite all the costs, Western countries will not easily give up playing with their puppet on a string in the conflict; as long as it remains profitable, they will continue to reap the tragic dividends, and perpetuate the crisis.

The deterioration of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become another major geopolitical flashpoint this year.

On Sept. 30, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan claimed that the United States helped make the Middle East region quieter than it had “been in two decades.”

Just seven days later, a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict erupted.

The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on Oct. 7 launched the Al-Aqsa Flood operation against Israel, resulting in heavy casualties. In response, Israel carried out strikes on tens of thousands of targets in the Gaza Strip, causing over 20,000 Palestinian deaths and leaving more than 50,000 injured.

The conflict dealt a heavy blow to the stability of the Middle East, signifying a complete failure of U.S. Middle East policy.

Regarding both the Israeli-Palestinian and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, Washington’s contradictory accusations against Russia and its blind support for Israel have exposed its double standards.

The stark contrast between the assistance to Ukraine and its disregard for Palestine clearly highlighted the U.S. pursuit of hegemony and self-serving policies.

Across the globe, the conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Yemen are far from being extinguished. Intense battles have erupted within Sudan, lasting for months and resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and over 7 million people displaced.

In Eurasia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are locked in a standoff. In Latin America, tensions are high between Venezuela and Guyana. On the Korean Peninsula, the arrival of a U.S. strategic nuclear submarine in South Korea and the expansion of joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, coupled with the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), have escalated the situation.

In Southeast Asia, clashes continue between local armed groups in northern Myanmar. In Africa, coups have erupted in nations such as Niger and Gabon. The proposal of military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States in Niger elicited a vehement response from Mali and Burkina Faso, exacerbating tensions within the region.

GLOBAL ECONOMY IN STAGNATION

In 2023, the global economy grappled with the hurdles on its path to a much-needed recovery, including escalating geopolitical tension, surging natural disasters, and the growing trend of deglobalization and trade protectionism.

In its latest economic outlook report, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has projected global gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 2.9 percent in 2023, followed by a slowdown to 2.7 percent in 2024 and a slight improvement to 3 percent in 2025.

In 2023, the global financial landscape took a major hit as the Federal Reserve announced aggressive interest rate hikes, sending shockwaves through the global banking industry. This has led to the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the United States.

Meanwhile, the specter of recession was looming over several European countries as the new year dawned. Nations including Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Sweden are expecting an economic slide of less than 1 percent, according to the European Commission.

While the EU was struggling amid a stalling economy, a few others were bucking the trend. Asia continued to be a major contributor to global growth, and the Chinese economy demonstrated noticeable resilience with positive prospects in the long run.

In November, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised China’s economic growth forecast for 2023 upward to 5.4 percent from a previous 5.0 percent.

“The Chinese economy is on track to meet the government’s 2023 growth target, reflecting a strong post-COVID recovery,” read a statement by the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director, Gita Gopinath, following a visit to China.

International trade, marked by a burgeoning imbalance and recurring frictions between economies, has fallen short of expectations due to geopolitical confrontation and the resurgence of protectionism that harms global trade.

As a result, the volume of world merchandise trade was expected to grow by 0.8 percent this year, less than half of the 1.7 percent increase forecast in April, according to a forecast released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in October.

The growing trend of fragmentation posed an additional risk to global trade, raising concerns among insiders in the global trade arena.

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Deputy Secretary-General Pedro Manuel Moreno highlighted the potential risk of trade fragmentation due to geopolitical strains during a WTO forum in September.

“Estimates by the WTO and the IMF suggest the potential losses from fragmentation could range from 5 percent to 7 percent of global GDP. This would be like removing the GDPs of India and Italy from the global economy. The cost is massive,” he said.

The IMF also warned in its new World Economic Outlook report that the intensification of geoeconomic fragmentation will not only mean high costs for global prosperity, but also hamper multilateral cooperation, and industrial and supply chains.

Moreover, a surge in natural disasters added a dramatic twist to the 2023 global landscape.

Earthquakes have rattled the Mideast. On Feb. 6, an earthquake of 7.7 magnitude struck southern Türkiye near the border with Syria, killing more than 50,000 people, leaving millions homeless and causing damage worth an estimated 100 billion U.S. dollars.

On Sept. 8, Morocco was hit by a 6.8-magnitude quake, claiming over 2,900 lives and leaving more than 5,530 injured.

Frequent extreme weather events further crippled the already fragile global economy. A severe heatwave swept across the European and African continent, with Italy reporting temperatures of 48.2 degrees Celsius and Morocco recording an even higher 50.4 degrees Celsius.

Wildfires have been raging in Canada for nearly half a year, scorching an area exceeding 180,000 square kilometers.

MULTIPOLAR ORDER ON RISE

In 2023, the principles of multilateralism and a multipolar world were on the rise, gaining increasing support and recognition worldwide.

At the General Debate of the UN General Assembly in September, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed the importance of multilateral institutions that match a multipolar world, which is in the making.

“We are moving toward a multipolar world. Multipolarity is creating new opportunities for different countries to lead on the global stage,” he said, noting that the challenges facing the world are universal, and they require universal solutions and cannot be solved through small groupings of states or coalitions of the willing.

Such a belief is becoming widely accepted: A unipolar order can no longer address global challenges, and a singular hegemony fails when attempting to dominate the world through wars and money.

The past year also saw an empowered and unified Global South, and left an indelible mark on the world stage.

Following the accession of Iran to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in July, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) joined the BRICS cooperation bloc a month later.

While the African Union became a permanent member of the Group of 20 (G20), the Group of 77 and China summit in Havana called for greater solidarity and cooperation among the Global South countries.

Developing countries are assuming an increasingly important role globally in advocating and fostering a fairer and more inclusive international order, speaking up louder against injustice and exclusion.

A collective resistance to the dominance of Western powers swept across several countries in Africa, coinciding with the withdrawal of French troops from Niger.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva vowed to strive to eliminate hunger, poverty and injustice during Brazil’s term as the rotating presidency of the G20.

Leaders of African countries such as Barbados stood up representing those vulnerable to climate change, urging the developed countries to make greater efforts in curbing the negative impacts of the climate crisis.

Amid the significant global changes, China has always been upholding multilateralism, promoting equity and justice, and fostering cooperation and development.

In November, Chinese President Xi Jinping flew over the Pacific and held a significant meeting with his U.S. counterpart, Joe Biden, in San Francisco, which contributed to a more stable China-U.S. relationship and added new momentum to Asia-Pacific cooperation and world peace and development.

In April, Iran and Saudi Arabia, with the mediation of China, joined forces and resumed diplomatic ties that had been severed for seven years, catalyzing more reconciliations among traditional foes in the Middle East.

In October, the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation was held in Beijing, during which Xi announced eight major steps China will take to support high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.

A multipolar world needs strong and effective multilateral institutions, said Guterres at the opening of the General Debate of the UN General Assembly in September.

“Despite our long list of global challenges, that same spirit of determination can guide us forward. Let us be determined to heal divisions and forge peace, determined to uphold the dignity and worth of every person, determined to realize the Sustainable Development Goals and leave no one behind, determined to reform multilateralism for the 21st century and come together for the common good,” he said. ■