Guns silenced as people power wins in Kawempe

Opposition win in chaotic poll leaves NRM shabby ahead of 2026

COVER STORY | IAN KATUSIIME | After two weeks of chaotic campaigning where baklava masked soldiers dragged and arrested candidates from nomination booths, beat up journalists, and fired live bullets at civilians, Kawempe North Constituency is calm. And it has a new MP, Luyimbazi Elias Nalukoola.

The lawyer-cum-politician who ran on the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) ticket snatched victory from Faridah Nambi Kigongo; the well-heeled daughter of Moses Kigongo, the 1st National Vice Chairman of the ruling NRM party headed by President Yoweri Museveni.

When the state deployed heavily armed soldiers, some on trucks and Army personnel Carriers together with swarms of police and out-of-uniform security personnel riding in the dreaded unmarked state security vans commonly called `Drones’, it was seen as a show of force that would favour the NRM candidate, Faridah Nambi.

President Museveni led a raft of national big names that stumped for Nambi in the poverty-infested constituency that boasts over 10 ghetto communities, flood prone low income localities, and crime-riven peri-urban neighbourhoods.

Museveni’s presence charged the atmosphere as police diverted traffic and blocked the opposition vehicle movement. President Museveni campaigned for the NRM candidate but it was too little too late.

Faridah Nambi’s father, Moses Kigongo campaigned for her in the scorching March sun, together with the Prime Minister, Robinah Nabbanja and the Minister for Kampala, Minsa Kabanda.

Faridah Nambi’s campaigns were scenes of well-organised campaign marches and rallies, with supporters clad in brand new yellow T-shirts happily cheering on speakers spewing endless pledges to better the constituency.

On the other end, opposition candidate Nalukoola endured endless harassment that started on day one when he was dragged from the nomination venue by security agents, was punched in the face and kicked in the stomach. By the time the balaclava masked soldier from the Joint Anti-terrorism Taskforce (JATT) hauled and dumped Nalukoola into their waiting drone, his spectacles had flown off his face and his shirt was shredded into a rug.

NUP rallies were attended by supporters in droves from the densely populated suburbs of Kawempe. NUP president Robert Kyagulanyi, Leader of Opposition Joel Senyonyi and a host of MPs turned out to campaign for Nalukoola, who had emerged victorious in a crowded primary field of NUP candidates who wanted the flag.

But the popularity of the opposition party also kept the police and army on edge. Soon enough, there were confrontations on schedules, venues and attacks on Nalukoola supporters and those attending the rallies.

The harassment of Nalukoola and opposition NUP supporters continued unabated despite legislators making it a point of discussion in the national parliament and many calling the violence by state agents – a national disgrace.

Even for NRM standards, there was consensus that the violence had surpassed the usual.

NRM Spokesperson Ofwono Opondo while appearing on NBS political talk show Frontline castigated the violence as unnecessary and said there is a lot of entitlement and loss of direction in the party. He laid the blame squarely at the feet of the military leadership.
“I don’t hold the security forces accountable, I hold the command accountable. The police and army leadership can’t deny that those were their personnel.”

In Parliament, the Minister of Internal Affairs, army Gen.David Muhoozi whose docket oversees election security, described the state agents behaviour as “unacceptable.” He was particularly miffed that the so-called law enforcers were balaclava masked.

“It isn’t acceptable, if you are enforcing the law, you must be properly identified,” Muhoozi told Parliament, “We have rules of engagement, booklets written to officers.”

But the army is now led by Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni’s son who has displayed a shocking appetite for violence by threatening to behead and hang opposition leaders.

A few weeks ago, the army raided the headquarters of the NUP on Muhoozi’s command and destroyed the offices after a parade of NUP foot soldiers went viral.

It was no surprise that, a counter statement not made in parliament, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), took issue with the minister’s position.

“I disagree with General David Muhoozi. There is no requirement for security personnel to be identified! None at all!” Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

And so the harassment of the opposition candidate, his supporters, journalists, and the general population of Kawempe North continued. Many were beaten, some to the point of needing hospital care, women were undressed, others were grabbed and disappeared, and media equipment destroyed.

Journalists are nursing broken limbs, dozens of people are still missing; having been kidnapped by security officials and the Kawempe business area looks like a war zone. Nation Media Group; the largest private media company, had to withdraw journalists on the day of the ill-fated election.

Even journalists considered pro-government were not spared the state brutality where some journalists are admitted in hospital; camera equipment broken and confiscated in a saga that has become commonplace in Uganda.

The last day of campaigns saw police taking over a venue booked by the opposition. “The military was deployed at our campaign venue, so our candidate and supporters were beaten as they headed to the campaign venue, apparently because the NRM team wanted to use that route on the way to their venue,” Ssenyonyi said.

A video doing the rounds showed that NUP Secretary General Lewis Rubongoya and Ssenyonyi had reportedly busted a residence in Kawempe where ballots were being ticked in favour of the NRM candidate.

In the end, it appears, citizen anger and resilience prevailed and the opposition’s Nalukoola won with 17,764 votes out of 28,002 ballots cast.

“This is not my victory. It is a victory for the people of Uganda and for the people of Kawempe North,” Nalukoola said on election night.

The NRM’s Faridah Nambi lost with 8593 votes or slightly less than a half of what Nalukoola got. She now earns the moniker of `perennial loser’ since she vied for the Kampala Woman MP position in the last election and lost.

But the opposition victory came at a huge cost: citizens of Kawempe and the entire country now live in fear that state inspired election violence is becoming normal.

The Joint Anti-Terrorism Taskfoce (JATT) which unleashed terror in Kawempe is a shadowy outfit that brings together agents from all security to work on missions under the UPDF.

JATT agents were last seen during Kampala bombings in 2021 and their springing up during the Kawempe elections appears to signal that the security apparatus has decided to unleash terror as the 2026 election looms.

High levels of election-related violence are nothing new in Uganda. In the run-up to the 2021 general election on August 13, 2018, NUP leader Robert Ssentamu Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine was badly beaten in another by-election in Arua, northern Uganda. His driver, Yasin Kawuma, was shot dead at the wheel. Then up to 54 people were killed in indiscriminate shooting by state agents to quell riots that erupted after Bobi Wine was on November 18, 2020 shot in the leg and blocked from campaigning in eastern Uganda.

The abiding theory is that in normalising violence, the goal of the regime is to sow fear in the electorate during elections. Close observers of how President Museveni operates say, whenever he has feels seriously threatened, he retreats to violence. They argue that it may be because Museveni came to power through a violent rebellion and has relied on brute force to suppress attempts to grab power from him.

But others argue that each time Museveni tries to retreat to violence as a means of control, he finds fewer allies even inside NRM. They say harassed opposition politician become headline news, gain popularity, and critical face recognition. Additionally, they say,even supporters of the ruling party and Museveni become demoralised, resent supporting a rogue regime, and keep away from the polls.

From the voter turnout, it appeared a combination of these scenarios played out in the Kawempe North by-election.

Kawempe is the largest of Kampala’s five divisions with an estimated population of 388,000 people. Kawempe North has a total number of registered voters at 199, 342 and only 28,051 showed up to vote. This was a measly 14%.

Nalukoola got about 70% of that 14%

The reality, however, 86% of registered voters stayed away from the polling booths. The late Muhammad Ssegirinya of NUP, who Nalukoola has succeeded, won the seat in 2021 with 41,197 votes. Ssegirinya’s closest challenger, Sulaiman Kidandala, won 7,512 votes and the NRM’s Tom Johnfisher Kasenge came third with 6,946 votes.

What these numbers show is that the state-violence succeeded in suppressing the voter turn-out. The question unanswered remain who would have benefited a large portion of those who stayed away had voted.

The quick answer is that the opposition candidate would have scooped even higher numbers given that Kawempe North is an opposition stronghold. The assumption is that Ssegirinya’s voters would vote Nalukoola. Not exactly perhaps.

The argument misses the reality on the ground that there was discontent among the foot soldiers of the NUP after the party card was handed to Nalukoola who until recently had no connection to the party based at Makerere-Kavule.

Nalukoola established himself in Kampala politics as a member of the youth wing of the opposition Democratic Party (DP), the Uganda Young Democrats. This association with the DP rubbed some NUP faithful the wrong way.

But the NUP leadership realised that Kawempe North has strong DP roots. The constituency also has a heavy muslim population which explains why nearly all the candidates were of the same faith. The NRM’s popularity in muslim majority constituencies has been on a downward spiral which was the other dynamic in the by-election.

From 2001-2016, its MP was Latiff Sebaggala, an erstwhile staunch DP politician who is now under the NUP tent. In 2016, Ssebagala was trounced by FDC’s Mubarak Munyagwa.

In 2021, Muhammad Ssegirinya romped to a popular victory after capturing the hearts of voters as a KCCA councilor. Nalukoola is muslim.

The NUP hierarchy picked Nalukoola because he ticked many of the boxes. They feared falling out with him would free him to run as independent candidate and possibly win. They handed him the ticket to ensure a win-win situation.

The NUP leader, Robert Kyagulanyi, urged unity and warned about the imminent violence in the election and the problem of dictatorship as what the party had to deal with.

In the ruling party meanwhile, Faridah Nambi’s camp also sought to capitalise on her muslim faith. Even when Prime Minister Nabbanja campaigned for her, she covered her head with a veil, even if she a Catholic.

Additionally, Nambi’s camp were also reading from their party, NRM’s membership register. It showed that the NRM has up to 20,000 members in the constituency and Nambi’s campaign was targeting them as a block vote. They also campaigned strongly on the service delivery plank, with speaker after speaker at rallies telling the crowds that service delivery would improve if they abandoned their opposition leanings and voted a pro-government candidate.

Nambi’s camp possibly calculated that if they suppressed the opposition vote by unleashing terror and violence, and kept their 20,000-strong block vote, they could romp to victory. It appears to have backfired. The NRM voters appear to have shrunk while the opposition was energised.

Nalukoola now appears to be a shoo-in for the next parliament since he has about only eight months in the current parliament.

It is also about six months to the general election campaign where aspects of the by-election could play out on a national scale. Unlike the previous election, there is no pandemic to curtail election activity which could set the stage for more wanton violence. All factors indicate that it is going to be a do or die election period. The army is now led by Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who has displayed a shocking appetite for violence.

the pre-election period, Electoral Commission boss Justice Simon Byabakama held a meeting with police chiefs on the escalating violence in the by-election. But there was cynicism on what the meeting could achieve as state violence has come to define the electioneering in Uganda.