IDPs want to stay rather than go home, says report

New solutions needed as 60% wish to stay in their displacement location

ANALYSIS | RONALD MUSOKE | For every 10 people internally displaced by conflict or disaster, six of them would rather remain in their current locations than return to their communities of origin, according to newly released findings from the second edition of the UN’s International Organistion for Migration (IOM) report published on Dec.17.

According to the report, early in their displacement, many people already favour remaining where they have settled, challenging the common assumption that returning to one’s area of origin is always preferred.

With over 58.5 million people currently displaced within their own countries, this data provides crucial guidance on how to create and support lasting solutions for millions in crisis, notes the report.

Among those displaced by disasters for more than five years, a staggering 96% wish to remain where they are. Safety emerges as the top determinant: when people feel secure, 71% prefer to stay, while those who feel unsafe are more likely to consider returning to their areas of origin.

But economic opportunities also become increasingly pivotal over time. For individuals displaced five years or longer, 25% cite livelihoods and employment as their main priority, compared to 18% among those displaced for less than a year.

Although people displaced by conflict may consider return more often than those displaced by disasters, the underlying factors remain consistent across contexts—safety, stability, and livelihood opportunities are paramount, according to the report.

The report is intended to support decision makers, from policy to operational partners, with a fresh evidence base to improve outcomes for internally displaced persons. It is important to create conditions where people who are displaced can make informed decisions about what solutions they prefer.

Published by IOM’s Global Data Institute (GDI) in partnership with the U.S-based Georgetown University, the Periodic Global Report on the State of Solutions to Internal Displacement (PROGRESS) offers a comprehensive analysis of the global state of solutions to internal displacement.

“Humanitarian and development partners often struggle to identify and measure solutions to internal displacement,” said Ugochi Daniels, the IOM Deputy Director General for Operations. “To address this need, IOM has collected IDP data for two decades, but the dedicated solutions-oriented evidence-based data was still required. PROGRESS aims to fill this gap.”

PROGRESS responds to a longstanding gap in understanding what displaced people themselves want and need. Based on over 116,000 household surveys and 463 qualitative consultations across 12 countries, it provides an in-depth assessment of the factors shaping displaced persons’ choices.

“Partnering with IOM has been a unique opportunity,” said Dr. Elizabeth Ferris, the Director of the Institute for the Study of International Migration at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.

“IOM’s unparalleled data collection capacity in the field combined with Georgetown’s academic expertise allowed for a rich blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis. We hope these findings will help stakeholders better understand what displaced people want and guide them toward sustainable solutions.”

The PROGRESS initiative is an essential resource to advance the UN Secretary General’s Action Agenda on Internal Displacement, equipping the humanitarian and development community to better resolve, prevent and address internal displacement worldwide.

In a foreword to the report, Amy Pope, the IOM Director General noted that the continuing rise in the numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs) worldwide –up from 71.1 million in 2022 to 75.9 million in 2023–is a stark reminder of the challenge the world faces as conflict, violence, disasters and climate related events impose human costs on communities around the globe.

“To overcome these challenges, we need more than the world’s attention,” she said, “We need the world to act, to do better at delivering durable solutions that leave no one behind.”

“That is the spirit behind the UN Secretary General’s Action Agenda on Internal Displacement and the mandate of the Office of the Special Adviser on Solutions to Internal Displacement.”

Using data collated from 33 of the world’s most troubled displacement contexts, along with focused case studies of IDPs in nine countries, the report identifies the factors that go into what someone who is displaced wants to do next.

“We want to increase the self-reliance of internally displaced people, so the choices of those people–whether to return home, resettle elsewhere, or integrate locally, must be at the heart of our work to find lasting solutions to displacement.”

“When the options IDPs need are not available, their progress toward stability can be fragile and short-lived. That is why it is crucial for humanitarian and development partners to have data on what displaced families intend to do.”

Pope notes that even basic information about these intentions helps plan resources effectively, ensuring the right support is in place to guide IDPs along their chosen path to a durable solution.

People-centred approach needed

The main finding of this year’s PROGRESS report reveals a difference in what IDPs plan to do, and the current policy direction. There is often a bias toward returning IDPs to their communities of origin. However, the results of PROGRESS2024-based on more than 85,000 household surveys reveals a wide spread intention of IDPs to remain where they are.

This finding showcases the critical importance of taking a people-centred approach by listening to IDPs and ensuring that their voices are at the heart of solutions planning and programming. According to the report, factors that impact the IDPs’ preferred solution include how long they have been displaced and why, along with their own safety, security and opportunity to pursue a livelihood among others.

The findings invite humanitarians and development partners alike to take a renewed look at their collective advocacy, planning, data collection and operational delivery, to help IDPs find and achieve the durable solutions they prefer.

PROGRESS, the Periodic Global Report on the State of Solutions to Internal Displacement, was first launched in 2023 to provide evidence on the factors which enable internally displaced persons (IDPs) to move forward and eventually achieve durable solutions.

The joint initiative of IOM’s Global Data Institute (GDI) and Georgetown University’s Institute for the Study of International Migration (ISIM), PROGRESS is intended to provide analysis of key variables that influence durable solutions on intentions of IDPs.

It brings together insights from analysis on IDPs intentions across varied durations and causes of displacement, vulnerability of household members, perception of safety and security and participation in community activities in displacement. It reveals promising new routes for humanitarian and development stakeholders to improve solutions outcomes for IDPs.

According to the report, by mid-2024, IOM tracked over 58 million IDPs and 36 million IDP returnees across 31 countries with active DTM operations, with estimated 49% of IDPs residing with host communities and 51% in displacement sites.

The trend of recent high level of IDPs observed in 2023 continued into the first half of 2024. Sudan remains the largest displacement crisis in the world with over 11 million IDPs displaced across 9,470 locations by the end of October 2024 with 53% of IDPs under 18 years of age. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, where historic floods drastically increase vulnerabilities for the 6.9 million IDPs, is the second largest displacement crisis.

Of special concern is the unfolding situation in the Gaza Strip where continued attacks hinder delivery of aid to about 1.9 million IDPs as flagged by the Principals of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee.

A majority (60%) of IDPs surveyed across nine countries included in this year’s analysis, wish to stay in their location of displacement from year one of displacement onwards.

This suggests that supporting local integration in the first few years of displacement would correspond to IDP intentions. Local integration preferences approach 100% by year-5 of displacement in disaster settings–with higher percentages (69.5%) of conflict-displaced also expressing an intention to remain in their area of displacement.

Although the intention to relocate or resettle to another part of the country increases slightly over time–from 2.7% for those displaced for one year or less, to 3.9% for those displaced for more than five years, this remains the least preferred displacement solution for surveyed IDPs. A higher percentage of those displaced by disasters intend to stay in their current location than those displaced by conflict (in eight of the nine countries analysed).

According to the report, 40.8% of respondents reported that they had been displaced on multiple occasions; 59.2% reported that they had been displaced only once. The share of IDPs who intend to stay in their current location reduces as the number of displacement increases.

Data on perceptions of safety (of mostly conflict-displaced households) shows that most (95%) surveyed IDPs feel safe in their locations of displacement and female-headed households are just as likely to feel safe as male-headed households.

Livelihoods become an increasingly important influence on a solutions intention the longer people remain displaced. About two out of 10 surveyed IDPs (18.1%) displaced up to a year reported livelihoods and employment as the major factor influencing solutions intentions compared to 25.2% of those displaced for over five years.

Going forward, the report notes that national authorities and international partners have historically practiced a returns-oriented approach to resolving displacement. Findings from this report, strongly suggest the need for a pivot by all stakeholders to improve IDP prospects for achieving the preferred solutions by making local integration support programmes widely available.