Is Byabakama losing control of elections?

Museveni’s proxy

By resorting to a so-called scientific election, Byabakama is not talking impossibilities. Digital media is already heavily deployed in Uganda’s electoral. The EC used Biometric Voter Registration and Biometric Voter Verification at polling stations in the last elections in 2016. In fact, virtual campaigns and electronic voting appear natural next stages for Uganda.

Even the digital campaign Byabakama has proposed could possibly work if all players accepted the limitations on public gatherings imposed by COVID-19 and the sanctions imposed by the constitution, namely that the terms of elected officials expire and election must be held unfailingly.

But opposition politicians appear determined to oppose whatever Byabakama throws at them. They treat him as a proxy of their opponent; Museveni.  Many of them recognize that six months amid Covid-imposed restrictions is too little time to try to unseat Museveni who has been in power for 34 years and controls the election process; including appointing the election officials. But they appear determined to milk the process to inflict as many body blows on Museveni as they can.

The result has been unprincipled posturing. The FDC president, Patrick Oboi Amuriat, for example, said in early June that the National Executive Committee (NEC) of his party was against postponing the election.

“We should go in for these elections, and I am sure that as FDC, we are going to win. Why should we postpone elections? There is not any law that permits the extension of elections.”

“If the Government wants to postpone elections, they should announce a state of emergency and conduct a referendum,” Amuriat said.

But on July 03, Amuriat told Parliament that if normal elections cannot be held then FDC wants a transitional government set up.

“The only constitutional amendment that FDC would propose is for the introduction of a transitional government which will cater for a situation of no elections at the time when they are constitutionally required to take place and the time of the current government is elapsing.”

Even MPs from the ruling party, possibly fearing their fate in the 2021 elections, initially appeared to break ranks with their party leader, President  Museveni, to oppose Byabakama’s scientific campaigns and demand the usual election public rally campaigns.

“We demand that EC comes forward together with scientists to explain with evidence and research why mass rallies were banned and yet places such as Kikuubo in Kampala are packed with people,” said Kasule Lumumba, the Secretary General of the NRM at a Town Hall meeting for all political party leaders and the EC convened by the Netherlands Institute for Multi-party Democracy at the Sheraton Kampala Hotel said on June 02.

“The changes in the roadmap have affected us greatly as a party. There are things that were introduced that we do not understand and that is why my party has been quiet for all this time,” Lumumba added, ““Without our presence, you have little or no jobs; this is candid talk that you must take in.”

Lumumba appears to have eventually fallen into line because, at a subsequent meeting with the Committee for Legal and Parliamentary Affairs of parliament on July 08, she announced that NRM was ready to go on with election and on time.

But in a surprise twist at the earlier event, the EC boss had backed Lumumba on the need to put the scientists on the spot.

“I think they (scientists) need to come and explain to the public why there can’t be open rallies yet many people are still meeting in Kikuubo,” Byabakama said, “If they find out that the country is free of COVID-19, we are ready to lift the ban on open rallies. What we are looking at here is risking the lives of people and yet they have a fundamental right to choose their leaders in a free and fair election.”

It is not clear what Byabakama and the others would say if Museveni turned around and said “Ok. Have public campaigns”.

Byabakama appears to be cleverly positioning himself for that and any other eventuality. After all, who knows what the COVID-19 situation will be in February 2021 when the elections are expected.

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