Kayihura’s fall

In around of reshuffles that followed in January 2017, President Museveni appointed new chiefs for CMI and ISO; Kandiho and Bagyenda respectively. These too were known foes of Kayihura.

Since Kayihura is no fool, he kept his head down, and Museveni left him free.

Finally, sometime in March 2017, reports emerged that Museveni had been warned that Kayihura feared he was about to be arrested and was launching his foray into open politics. He was allegedly gunning for the presidency.

Intelligence personnel even had T-shirts with Kayihura’s portrait on them and a venue for the launch event. Museveni reportedly deployed to block the event. But Museveni soon realised the reports were B

At the time, Kayihura’s feud with Tumukunde, Bagyenda, and Kandiho was out in the open.

Then in March 2017, Kaweesi was killed by assassins. Once again Kayihura became a prime, albeit unmentioned, suspect.

At Kaweesi’s vigil, President Museveni said criminals had infiltrated police and warned Kayihura to clean up or he would do it for him.

The criminals were said to be enjoying Kayihura’s protection.

But when Kayihura arrested suspects, his favoured detention facility was exposed as a torture facility. When he failed to adduce evidence, suspects in custody claimed instead that they were being tortured to implicate Tumukunde for the murder of Kaweesi. And those under ISO custody and at the Military Court Martial claimed they had dirt implicating Kayihura.

One of them, Special Police Constable Ali Kabanda, who was attached to the Flying Squad, in a May 2017 dossier claimed that his life was under threat because of his knowledge of the arrests and extradition of Rwandese refugees.

He said that at the centre of these operations were Nixon Agasirwe, Baroza, who was Kayihura’s aide and Ismail Baguma, a Rwandan commissioner of police, said to be a Rwandan attaché at Uganda Police. Kayihura’s opponents point at him as the best example of how Rwandan intelligence has infiltrated police under Kayihura.

Kabanda claims Baguma had a team of operatives disguised as special hire drivers and boda-boda riders around the country.

With claims Rwanda had infiltrated bodaboda structures, CMI cracked down on BodaBoda 2010 and arrested its leader Abdullah Kittata another close ally of Kayihura. Museveni also dismantled the Crime Preventers.To make matters worse for Kayihura, tensions with Rwanda were getting worse.

Uganda accused Rwanda of plotting regime change in Kampala and vice versa. Owing to his close relationship with the Rwanda leadership (President Kagame was the best man at Kayihura’s wedding), Kayihura has always come under suspicion whenever there are tensions between Kampala and Kigali.

Sources tell The Independent that shortly before he was fired, Kayihura held a meeting with a confidant in security.

Both Kayihura and the confidant were being seen as the top sympathisers for the Rwandan government and Museveni had shuffled the confidant from an influential security position allegedly over links with Rwanda.

“I have taken a hit because of these Rwanda issues,” the confidant said.

“For me, it will be worse when these tensions get out of hand,” Kayihura reportedly said.

Kayihura’s worst fear

Those close to Kayihura say he is concerned that the people investigating him have in the past fought him or accused him of undermining them professionally and even attempting to murder them. Bagyenda,Kandiho, and Gen. Salim Saleh appear obvious.

But Kayihura fears even others like Akullo.

When Joan Kagezi was murdered in 2015, Akullo who was driving a few metres behind her feared that she had, in fact, been the target.

Owing to her alleged longstanding frosty relationship with Kayihura owing to her closeness to President Museveni and First Lady Janet Museveni, Akullo reportedly feared Kayihura wanted her out of the way. There is no love lost between them.

So far Museveni has dealt with Kayihura as he does with powerful cadres who become political threats – contain them. In the case of former head of ISO and powerful minister Jim Muhwezi, and Lt. Gen. Tumukunde, it was a case of contain and rehabilitate. In case of Gen. Sejusa and former Prime Minister AmamaMbabazi, it is contain and watch.In some cases, such as that of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) stalwart KizzaBesigye, it becomes perennial animosity. It is not clear what Kayihura’s fate will be.