Kenya’s Rift Valley on edge as elections loom

Despite heightened tension during the last presidential election in 2013, which was mostly peaceful even though Odinga claimed Kenyatta robbed him of victory, Naivasha remained calm.

This is seen as due to the alliance between Kenyatta and Ruto — who were both hauled before the International Criminal Court for their alleged role in the post-election violence. The charges were later dropped.

– ‘Superficial reconciliation’ –

Despite their partnership, the ICG notes that “reconciliation remains superficial,” in the Rift Valley, where conflicts over land have been common since Kenya’s independence in 1963.

Omondi echoes the conclusion, saying much-promised land reform efforts have never been carried out.

“The true reconciliation is not there,” said Omondi. He believes the Kenyatta-Ruto partnership is all that is keeping the valley peaceful.

“If Uhuru divorces with Ruto, you will see violence in Rift Valley, on the biggest scale you’ve ever seen,” he said.

Many of the scars from the 2007 unrest remain visible in the region.

Steven Mungai has lived in a displaced persons camp outside Nakuru ever since his shop in the western city of Kisumu was torched after the disputed vote.

A Kikuyu, he said he can never go back to his former city on the shores of Lake Victoria, where Odinga’s Luo ethnic group is dominant.

“Over there, I won’t be able to sleep because if I recall what I encountered all those years, my heart starts racing,” he said.

The Rift Valley is likely to remain a tinderbox, especially ahead of the next election in 2022 as it remains to be seen whether Kikuyus will maintain their pledge to back Ruto for president.

And there’s no telling if Odinga’s opposition coalition, which has repeatedly warned of election fraud, will tolerate a loss at the ballot box next week.

“If it’s free and fair, there will be no violence,” Omondi said. “But let me assure you, if it’s rigged, there will be violence.”