Museveni has never won Gulu: Can Mao extend this losing record?

Gulu, Uganda |  THE INDEPENDENT | As the 2021 general elections draw close the campaigners of the National Resistance Movement-NRM, presidential candidate, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni must be strategizing to overcome his perennial defeat in Gulu district. Museveni has never won any election in Gulu district since 1996.  

In 1996, Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere trounced Museveni in Gulu scoring 90.4%, Dr Kizza Besigye won Gulu impressively in 2001 and 2006 scoring 80% in each of the election cycle. Democratic Party (DP) Norbert Mao, a native of the area won Gulu in 2011 with 44%. Besigye won Gulu again in 2016 scoring 50.6%.   

Museveni’s best score in Gulu was in 2016 when he polled 32.7%. Museveni started making inroads in Acholi region in the 2011 presidential elections after defeating the Lords Resistance Movement-LRA, which consequently brought a semblance of peace in the region.

If Museveni is to win Gulu in next year’s presidential election, he will have to retain the percentage he polled in 2016 but also increase it by at least 18 percent. That’s how he will cross the 50% threshold. In next year’s election, Mao is the only candidate who stands between the extension of this losing streak and Museveni’s victory in Gulu for the first time.    

Political analysts in Acholi region predict that Museveni will still struggle to win votes in Gulu City and district in the coming presidential election. With Mao back in the race and Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine of the National Unity Platform (NUP) party galvanizing the support of youths, Martin David Aliker, a writer and a political pundit argues that it will be hard for Museveni to earn a win.   

He says people that Museveni use to represent him and his ideas in Gulu are not the best.  

Aliker argues that “Gulu is a strong hold for Norbert Mao. “We still respect him; we know he is still struggling. We feel we will be betraying him if we don’t vote him.”

He says majority voters in Gulu still have a strong attachment to Mao and his appeal and legitimate leadership despite his failing at the national level. 

Tony Kitara, a lawyer in Gulu City opines  that the ruling NRM government has indisputably made some tremendous social economic transformation in Gulu but they won’t translate into solid votes for the president because the party lacks good leaders who can harvest the dividends of NRM investments in the area. 

But there are analysts who argue that Mao has not built party structures in his backyard and this may be leveraged by his opponents largely president Museveni to defeat him. 

Such analysts include Walter Akena, a scholar with the Agency for Cooperation and Research in Development (ACORD) Uganda who thinks Norbert Mao’s DP grassroots structure is in disarray in Gulu and that may not guarantee him a second round of success. 

Francis Odoki, an NRM supporter in Gulu is confident that Museveni will win the city and the district. While the 2021 polls appear complex, he says President Museveni will win with a landslide victory especially after he delivered on his key promises such as infrastructure, supporting SACCOs, giving them a city among others. 

Samuel Agwani, the Gulu City NRM Youth League Chairperson believes that President Museveni is the right candidate that voters in Gulu must consider because of his consolidated achievements citing economic transformation, peace, security and stability.

********

URN