Museveni’s next battle

The old CEC that was recently replaced comprised the chairman of the party who is Museveni, his two national vice-chairpersons, Haj Moses Kigongo and Rebecca Kadaga, regional chairpersons; Haj Abdul Nadduli (Buganda), Capt. Mike Mukula (Eastern), Gen. Matayo Kyaligonza (western), Sam Engola (northern), Godfrey Amooti Nyakana (Kampala), and Simon Peter Aleper (Karamoja).

But four of the seven officials who contested elections were defeated and replaced by new younger faces. Haj Abdul Nadduli (Buganda), Gen. Matayo Kyaligonza (western), Sam Engola (northern), Godfrey Amooti Nyakana (Kampala) were replaced by Godfrey Kiwanda for Buganda, Singh Katongole for Kampala, Jacob Oulanyah for northern Uganda and Chris Baryomunsi for western Uganda.

The 64-year old Rebecca Kadaga survived after a grueling battle against Percis Namuganza, a political debutant who is only 35 years old. Kadaga had sought Museveni’s intervention to have position of second-national vice chairperson also ring-fenced like Kigongo’s but Museveni threw her in front of the bus.

Fortunately for her, she survived. But elderly Abdul Nadduli; perhaps seeing that he could not manage the competition mounted by young cadres, decided not to contest for central Uganda vice chairmanship. That left space for 47-year old Kiwanda and the Kayunga NRM strongman Moses Karangwa to tussle it out. Kiwanda won. The elderly Kyaligonza who in 2015 only survived an onslaught from Museveni’s sonin-law, Odrek Rwabogo, who was forced by the party chairman to stand down, was not as lucky this time.

Museveni could not defend him and he was kicked out of the political battle field by the youthful Kinkizi politician, the 50-year old Baryomunsi. Baryomunsi can be referred to as the model second generation NRM politician having emerged onto the scene hardly 15 years back. Until 2000, Baryomunsi was hardly known on the national scene. But he is now in charge of the party. The 62-year old Engola was replaced by 55-year old Oulanyah. Only 50 year-old Nyakana lost to an older challenger, Emmanuel Singh Katongole who is 58 years old.

Even the 64-year old Mike Mukula fought a tough campaign against 47-year old Sanjay Tanna. Other young generation cadres in the CEC include Singh Katongole for Kampala, Gideon Rukundo Rugari representing the Entrepreneurs League, Mwine Mpaka representing the Youth League. To this add the new generation of leaders at the NRM Secretariat such as the secretary general, her deputy, treasurer and deputy.

They are joined by Secretary-General Justine Kasule Lumumba, her deputy Richard Todwong, the treasurer, Rosemary Namayanja Nsereko, the Prime Minister Dr Ruhakana Rugunda, and government chief whip Ruth Nankabirwa, among others.

Although Museveni still has to contest the 2021 presidential election, the question of how much longer he can hold onto power has been gaining currency

The ages of the old and new CEC are critical to understanding how they are a factor in creating an influential vacuum for Museveni in the post-2021 politics. By 2026, the party is poised to have a dominant generational shift in terms of leadership going by the recent NRM CEC elections. By then a generation of NRM top leaders who are less attached to the “we fought” mentality will have presumably become the majority members.

Although Museveni still has to contest the 2021 presidential election, the question of how much longer he can hold onto power has been gaining currency because, in spite of his increasing weakness within his party, there is a widely held view that the opposition is weak and cannot defeat him in 2021.

While commenting on the divisions within the opposition, Moses Byaruhanga, who is a senior presidential adviser of Museveni on political affairs, concluded that “it is impossible for the opposition or Bobi Wine for that matter to beat President Museveni come 2021.”

Even opposition leaders such as Gen. Mugisha Muntu, the leader of one of the newer parties; the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), have said publicly that defeating Museveni requires opposition groups to unite behind one candidate which they have failed to do.

In an article titled ‘After Mugabe, all eyes are on Museveni: how long can he cling to power?’, three professors; Justin Willis (History, Durham University), Gabrielle Lynch (Comparative Politics, University of Warwick) and Nic Cheeseman (Democracy, University of Birmingham) also wrote that “Museveni is a wily politician with a wellused toolbox for maintaining power.” According to them, Museveni politicalmanagement weakens the NRM as a political organisation and creates a problem: it prevents the emergence of any viable successor within the NRM.

“So Uganda is stuck with a president who is good at playing the electoral game and a ruling party which has no way of producing a successor,” they said.

But, according to the professors, Museveni’s strategy “can only defer the problem and make it more intractable.”