Museveni’s next cabinet

Which opposition politicians are in and what awaits them

Kampala, Uganda | HAGGAI MATSIKO | President Yoweri Museveni might soon announce a new cabinet lineup. That is the expectation. And it is driven by both recent events and recent actions by the President. Museveni also plans to shuffle his staff at State House and permanent secretaries, according to informed observers close to State House.

They say Museveni has an established a pattern which has now reached the cabinet level.

They say Museveni reshuffles cabinet after being sworn-in following an election and again in the second half of his term. Sometimes, he starts with a reshuffle of security chiefs or Resident District Commissioners (RDCs).

That is why when he shuffled the RDCs in June this year, many expected a cabinet reshuffle to follow immediately after. But it is now three months later and nothing has happened. Insiders are unfazed. They say a reshuffle is imminent.

They point at how Museveni’s influential younger brother; Gen. Caleb Akandwanaho aka Salim Saleh, recently moved to what is being described as “remote location”. They say this means Saleh is working on a sensitive assignment for the President.

It is not a secret, among informed circles, that Saleh has for months been vetting potential candidates for cabinet.

As usual he has been alternating between the Mutundwe-based Serene Suites and his other home in Kapeka, Nakaseke district. Recently, however, insiders say he moved to a more remote location.

This has sparked even more speculation. Saleh, insiders say, usually comes up with a working draft of a cabinet list and President Museveni tweaks it to make the final list.

In the past, Museveni has used cabinet reshuffles to signal his political direction ahead of a major political fight or election. Often he has used reshuffles to court political support from certain geographical, tribal, or religious constituencies. He also used it to reward hardworking officials and loyalists, and punish poor political performers.

This time, however, the focus appears to be on breaking the momentum created by the determination of retired Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu to create a so-called `third force’, the reshaping after Muntu’s departure of Uganda’s erstwhile biggest party, the Forum for democratic Change (FDC) and the perceived decline in visibility of FDC stalwart Kizza Besigye and the emergence of “people power” and Kyadondo East MP Robert Sentamu Kyagulanyi alias Bobi Wine.

Observers say that to recapture the momentum from these events which are now the talk of the town, Museveni’s might seek to poach prominent personalities from their camps.

This strategy is favoured because of a general view that Museveni’s ruling NRM party has failed to create a new strategy leadership since the departure of once powerful Museveni confidante turned challenger; former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi.

Fight over opposition leadership

Sensing a vacuum in strategy, once written off politicians like Democratic Party (DP) leader Norbert Mao are moving swiftly to fill it. Mao has recently taken leadership in the call for revival of the Interparty Organisation for Dialogue (IPOD). His strategy is clear enough – possibly emerge as joint opposition presidential candidate in 2021.

It is unclear, however, whether Muntu who is equally intent on being on the presidential ballot in 2021 will let him. Or indeed, Bobi Wine, who has a penchant for springing surprises.

Mao must also be eyeing Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine keenly.

He sees a young Catholic; Uganda’s biggest religious grouping, and with a family legacy in DP where both his father and grandfather were major players.