The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
How every action taken by Besigye since his arrest has played into the president’s hands
THE LAST WORD | Andrew M. Mwenda | Since he was abducted from Nairobi, Dr. Kizza Besigye has been involved in a series of tactical battles in court. Yet each victory he has secured has left his strategic position very weak. Consequently, he has quite inadvertently handed President Yoweri Museveni the rope to hang him.
Besigye believes that Museveni is a tyrant destroying Uganda. He argues that Museveni has personalised the state and made Uganda a private estate for him and his family. Over the years, and out of his personal experience, he has come to believe that Museveni cannot be removed from power peaceably through electoral competition. Hence, only a mass uprising or an armed insurrection can rid Uganda of this destructive tyrant.
It is because of this that Besigye has been engaged in political activism on the streets trying to precipitate a kind of 2011 Arab uprising. After more than a decade of failure, he decided to precipitate an economic crisis backed by an armed insurrection. That is what he was discussing in Nairobi. Sadly, he was caught red-handed in the meeting. Besigye and his wife Winnie Byanyima know this truth and that the state has iron-clad proof.
This is where Besigye’s lack of strategy becomes evident. If he wants to expose Museveni as a tyrant, the best proof was for Besigye to be tried in a military court martial. This was the more attractive because the Chief of Defense Staff (CDF) who is the head of the military (and therefore oversees the court martial) and is also the son of the president, has already convicted Besigye and sentenced him to death on Twitter (X). This was the golden opportunity to keep the trial in the court martial only to expose the tyranny he claims to be fighting. If the court martial sentenced him to death, exactly what the CDF had already done, his case would have been complete.
Now, for political reasons, it would be most unlikely that Museveni would hang Besigye. In fact, it is very likely that the court martial would have given Besigye a lenient sentence since he was accused of “treachery” – whatever that means. However, Besigye’s best strategy was not to seek proper justice with due process. Doing so defeats his claim that he is in a political struggle against a tyrant who disrespects the rule of law, disregards due process and runs roughshod over the rights of citizens.
A revolutionary in Besigye’s shoes would have turned the court martial into his political rostrum. He would have declared his political aim as liberating Uganda from tyranny. He would have said there is no other way to liberate Uganda except through armed insurrection and political assassination. Then he would conclude by saying he is willing to die in the struggle to liberate the country from the tyranny and incompetence of family rule.
Rather than try to make history, Besigye went on a hunger strike to protest his trial in the military court martial, insisting on the High Court. Without noticing, Besigye had conferred legitimacy to his trial in the High Court. But this defeats his own claim that courts in Uganda lack judicial independence. Besigye and his supporters believe that even our Supreme Court is Museveni’s tool. However, (I don’t know whether Museveni plotted this with Owiny Dollo), the Supreme Court “defied” the president and issued a ruling that civilians (Besigye) cannot be tried in a military court. Museveni acted angry at the ruling but accepted its orders. So, “the tyrant” yielded. You need to be totally blind not to see Museveni’s ironic smile.
Now the stage has been set for Besigye’s trial in the High Court. This is in circumstances where Besigye, his wife and many of his supporters have, inadvertently, expressed faith in civilian courts. The Supreme Court has also demonstrated its independence. Thus, whatever verdict Besigye gets in civilian courts will be seen as legitimate. If he is convicted on treason charges and sentenced, perhaps even to death, it will be difficult for them to turn around and denounce civilian courts as lacking independence.
I do not know whether Museveni anticipated all this and laid the trap for Besigye. What is clear is that in getting away from the court martial (where alleged tyranny would have been exposed) to the High Court (where due process is believed to be upheld) Besigye inadvertently handed Museveni a rope to hang him. Besigye’s lack of strategic foresight led him to a series of tactical battles that have led him to this strategic defeat.
Please ignore these claims that the audios of plotting to overthrow the government violently are fake. You need to be stupid to believe this delusion. In any case, many key pillars of the opposition are in close communication with foreign missions in Uganda – the Americans, the British and the French. All these embassies got those audios and sent them home for verification. Any friendly diplomat would tell them that after verification at their advanced laboratories, all of them returned with one verdict: they are authentic. It is, therefore, a terrible delusion to think otherwise.
So, Besigye is going to trial in a court of his choice and one whose credibility has been strengthened by his own actions and the Supreme Courts subsequent decision. With such credibility and with the state in possession of hard evidence against him, Besigye has limited room for maneuver. His best option was to own the audios, state his political convictions, his political aims for the country and make justification for the means he had chosen to bring about political change. The best place to do this cannot be a credible civilian court seen as dispensing justice. His best platform would have been a military court martial which lacks credibility in the eyes of many, including many Museveni supporters and diplomats. Then, even if they hanged him, he would have become a martyr for the cause.
I have always felt that as a soldier, Besigye is a very poor politician and as a politician, an equally very poor soldier. This is in large part because he has a very poor conception of strategy. Now, it is very likely that he will be found guilty by the High Court and sentenced to death. Then he will need Museveni to save his life by exercising his prerogative of mercy. His wife Winnie Byanyima will go to State House and kneel before Museveni to save her husband. The son of Kaguta will have the last laugh.
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amwenda@ugindependent.co.ug
Andrew’s analytical skills have deteriorated significantly, particularly when it comes to the first family in Uganda and Rwanda during the times when he has good relations with President Kagame. First, Museveni didn’t accept court orders; he immediately stated that he would call parliament to override the orders. He followed through with this statement, and ‘his parliament’ complied as expected and will pass laws allowing civilians to be tried in court martial. Second, Besigye and his lawyers have little faith in Uganda’s court system controlled by Museveni’s cadres, whose many judgements and precedents are wanting. Ref to many judgements by Justice Douglas Singiza, Musa Ssekaana, etc. Dissidents, justices such as Justice Esther Kisaakye, have faced significant challenges. Look at the timing of the probe that Museveni has instituted to probe Justice kisaakye. The purpose of this probe is to signal to other justices that they should tow Museveni’s line when judging on the matters that he is interested in or face dire repercussions. Besigye, along with many other Ugandans, holds minimal faith in Uganda’s court system. However, as a civilian, Besigye wanted to be tried in the right court, for civilians, of which he is, which is the right thing to demand. Does that imply to Andrew that Besigye and his supporters believe in that court? Only a narrow-minded person can make such a stupid claim, leading me to question Andrew’s perspective. In Andrew’s world, excellent strategic thinkers that have made the right move to transform Uganda include Nobert Mao ‘power sharing’. Still waiting to see the transformation Andrew was excited that Mao would achieve by making an alliance to transform Uganda’s politics. As for Winnie kneeling before Museveni to forgive her husband at some point, Andrew, Isn’t that how dictators rule?