The next presidential debate

Voter’s changing

In a country without an established culture of straw polling of the public over such events, it is difficult to say if voters are likely to punish Museveni for dodging the debates.

“No voter is going to change because of the debate,” thundered the NRM and government spokesman, Ofwono Opondo, on the early morning Capital Gang FM radio show. His sidekick, Chris Baryomunsi – who is a Minister of State for Health, said the show amounted to nothing more than Friday Night comedy.

Yet even by Ofwono’s own admission, his children of voting age formed new opinions of some of the candidates because of how they performed at the debate. “My daughter who is in Namagunga and son who is at university said Bwanika and Biraaro were quite good,” he said on the show.

Even before the night debate ended at 11pm, over 10 memes ridiculing President Museveni’s dodging the debate had been circulated on social media. Many more followed as the night wore on.

If Museveni is looking to see if the debate can change anything, he might also look at the only woman in the race, Maureen Walube Kyalya, Elton Joseph Mabirizi, and Amama Mbabazi. These three possibly had the worst showing. Museveni’s main challenger, Kizza Besigye and Prof. Venansius Baryamureeba went in as strong contenders and did little to change that impression.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the two who have been getting rave reviews since the debate are independent candidate, Abed Bwanika, and Uganda Farmers Party (UFM) candidate, retired Maj. Gen. Benon Biraaro.

Bwanika is a three-time contender in the presidential race, and was a little known to the public, although the grasp of issues he showed during the debate was a surprise to many viewers.

Gen. Biraaro, on the other hand, was a totally new entity.

Although he has been traversing the country since he was nominated in December 2015, few Ugandans have been paying attention to this soft-spoken gentle giant, with wide white eyes, thick lashes, and dark well-cropped hair that is greying at the temples. Biraaro stood taller than all the other candidates at the debate – in stature, composure, and novelty and pitch of his ideas. It is unlikely that a single debate can hand Biraaro the presidency but, if no viewers knew him going into the debate, coming out of it, few of them are likely to write him off.According to several people that The Independent spoke to, going into the debate, Maureen Walube Kyalya and Elton Joseph Mabirizi were trailing in popularity. That the debate buried them was just as surprising as the shallowness of their presentation.

“Is Mabirizi a real engineer,” was a trending question after the debate. He possibly is not. His only known qualification is that he is a renowned Christian evangelical preacher of the type usually called `pastor’. He also allegedly has a diploma in electrical engineering from an institute in Kampala.

Museveni’s handlers claim participating in the TV debate elevates such challengers to the level of equals with him. But the assumption is that Museveni’s level can only either stay constant or sink. This argument rejects Museveni potential to sour so high at the debate that his knowledge, oratory, and style simply shows how far below him Besigye, Mbabazi and the others are – thus elevating him even farther.

Secondly, winning over the `elitist audience’, Museveni’s group say pays attention to the debate is critical. Observers also argue that Museveni’s biggest loss from not attending the debates is symbolic. They say that as a man from the military – an institution not known for lofty debates, Museveni needs to embrace democratic practices. They say Museveni fought the 5-year Luweero bush war that brought him to power as a defender of democracy. He argued that the 1980 presidential election had been rigged in favour of Milton Obote. Unfortunately, some of Museveni’s behavior since he came to power has clipped away his credentials as a democrat. Fearing to debate his challengers is the latest.

Debating is important among democrats because a lot of politics involves communication and transmission of messages, especially verbally. The unwillingness of leaders to debate national issues leads to a narrowing of avenues for freedom of speech and consolidation of unfair or dictatorial tendencies. Only the military “rely more on the gun than on the gift of the gab,” Mazrui writes.