NRM’s 1986 promises fade

After 39 years in power, its future is uncertain

ANALYSIS | IAN KATUSIIME | President Yoweri Museveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) is marking 39 years in power this month and a lot is happening.

The 39th NRM/NRA Victory Day Anniversary celebrations, held annually on January 26, are this year being marked under the theme: “39 Years of NRM/A: Salutations to Those Who Re-sanctified Our Homeland.”

The NRM’s anniversary is also happening at a time of uncertainty at home and radical change elsewhere.

As the ruling party nears its forty-year stretch and its leader now officially an octogenarian, political shifts are roiling inside the NRM and outside of it. It is especially noteworthy that Museveni and NRM have witnessed eight American presidencies so far but the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency is fraught with uncertainty.

Museveni, as the chairman of the party appears to be in retreat on account of old age. This has hobbled his party.

The NRM touted itself as a revolutionary party in the mould of Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) in Tanzania and African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa which are highly regarded liberation parties continent-wide. The two parties which NRM has affiliations to, have had frequent change of leaders.

Museveni devotes much of his time to country tours inspecting projects under the Parish Development Model—a multibillions scheme meant to improve livelihoods—another variant of the same government programmes established over the years. PDM is now dogged by reports of misappropriation of funds by government officials.

Days to NRM’s big day, Museveni was in the Busoga sub region, which remains mired in poverty, to visit PDM beneficiaries. These are mostly farmers subsisting on small plots of land. Museveni made his own assessment.

“I was happy to see that the Basoga are getting out of poverty. At the time of independence in 1962, only 19% of Ugandans were in the money economy, leaving 81% outside it,” he said in a statement.

“The challenge then was underdevelopment and underutilisation of resources. The Basoga are hardworking and have historically participated in the money economy through crops like cotton and sugarcane, but they often lacked “ekibalo”to maximize profits,” he added.

But with most of the NRM veterans dead or retired, some experts and current members say the organisation is plagued by ‘Museveni fatigue’ which has fed into succession tensions.

In effect, the future of the NRM has looked uncertain for a while and it is an issue that seems to haunt party cadres. The chairman of the party has kept all the cards to his chest and no one dares to confront him directly.

Museveni has already signalled his intention to run for president in the 2026 elections effectively keeping Uganda’s political transition in the state it has been in for over two decades.

There are rumoured plans to amend the constitution to have the parliament elect the president. This has fanned more intrigue and uncertainty about a post-Museveni Uganda.

There is also restlessness in Museveni’s party. His son Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the army commander who has presidential ambitions, is being set up as the “standby generator”. For now, he can only act outside of his father’s authority.

As old age takes a toll on the president, the leash on his son has gotten shorter and Muhoozi now acts more unrestrained ratcheting up tensions at State house, in the army and in the country.

Muhoozi has been a key figure in the current presidential term throwing teasers, staging rallies and seemingly building a power base of his own under his father. In the Christmas period, Muhoozi posted tweets on how he intends to behead opposition leader Bobi Wine and also mentioned a desire to hang Uganda’s highly rated opposition figurehead, Dr Kizza Besigye. After intense backlash, he deactivated his X account.

To many, it was proof that Muhoozi is increasingly acting on his own as these were statements that would otherwise get him detained and prosecuted at the General Court Martial if he were not the First Son.

Last year, Muhoozi made an unprecedented step for a serving army officer when he registered a political party, the Patriotic League of Uganda, which is actively engaged in political mobilization.

He had earlier appeared to be building momentum with his MK movement campaigns shortly after the 2021 election only to announce that he would not be running for president in 2026 after all.

According to some analysts, Muhoozi’s actions have left the NRM in a pickle since he publicly says he does subscribe to the party of his father. Some NRM veterans like spokesperson Ofwono Opondo have griped about his out of line behaviour.

Opposition grows amidst uncertainty

There has been a fierce contest in the political space between NRM and myriad opposition formations over the years. It is not clear how 2026 will play out.

The National Unity Platform, arguably the most potent form of opposition the NRM has faced, is marching from strength to strength.

As the dominant opposition side, NUP, continues to galvanise the country with a large youth population ahead of the 2026 election with tours in Uganda and abroad.

With 57 MPs in the House—less than a quarter of NRM’s 342, it has given the NRM monolith a run for its money down the ballot in local government mayorships and councillorships in the central region.

NRM’s anniversary is happening at a time when the Forum for Democratic Change formed by former members of the ruling party, is virtually no more with its leadership pulling closer to the NRM.

FDC’s larger than life former president Dr Kizza Besigye is locked up in Luzira prison on charges of unlawful possession of firearms. Besigye and his colleagues are now part of a new party that is struggling to find its footing.

Elsewhere, many individuals who are civilians are being held in safe houses and in jail while facing charges at the General Court Martial ranging from treachery to possession of government stores. Wearing a red beret in Uganda today can get one thrown in jail and never to be heard back from.

In January, Kawempe North MP Muhammad Ssegirinya passed on after an illness resulting from the torture and long detention he faced in what many observers called up trumped up charges.

The 37-year-old legislator was only in parliament for five months when he was arrested in September 2021 on charges of murder in the Greater Masaka region where he hails from. The officers who carry out the torture are never identified let alone brought to book for the disturbances because it is believed they are acting in state interests.

Discarded promises

Thirty nine years down the road, the NRM appears to have long discarded the ten point programme it said its governance would be based on. Security of person and property, one of its core pillars, appears to be increasingly disregarded – together with a lot more.

Succession remains an elephant in the room but corruption is a mainstay in the party.

Patrick Bingi, MP for Butemba County in Kyankwanzi district bemoans the corruption that has become synonymous with his party.

“When you look at the Auditor General’s report, you realise we are losing trillions of shillings per year. This is money that could improve service delivery. It will take the combined effort of the executive, parliament, DPP, CID to crack the whip.”

But Bingi says the NRM/NRA Victory Day Anniversary celebrations still holds significance. He says there is a lot to celebrate.

“There has been a significant increase in health centres and schools. I am now 40 but when I was in secondary school, there was no school in my district, we used to go to Hoima. Now there are five secondary schools here,” he said.

Bingi added that the connectivity in road network is another milestone worth celebrating. The sentimental attachment supporters have towards schools and health centres is one of NRM’s rallying points.

Many supporters also say that Museveni is a guarantor of stability and security in the country. They say because of the unrest that characterised past governments resulting into violent purges, coups and a perpetually divided military.

A lot changed on January 26, 1986 when the NRA captured power under Museveni after years of guerilla war.

As the day, January 26, approached, party apparatchiks were already making the rounds with newspaper commentaries of the anniversary rehashing the usual motifs.

“The country is largely peaceful. What we are grappling with are incidents of criminality that call for the involvement of not only the security forces, but the full participation of the communities in the different localities,” wrote Mary Karooro Okurut, a former minister for information, and NRM publicist who remains loyal to Museveni.

Despite the glowing praise heaped on Museveni and the NRM by the likes of Karooro Okurut, the succession uncertainty, widespread corruption, and state-inspired torture of opponents by the security forces could become the defining legacy of the NRM.