One year of war in Ukraine

How all sides to this conflict made strategic miscalculations that will reshape the world order

THE LAST WORD | Andrew M. Mwenda | Today (February 24th) marks one year since Russian tanks crossed into Ukraine in what President Vladmir Putin called a “special military operation.” Since then, the war has only proved the validity of the law of unintended consequences. It is a lesson best illustrated by the First World War. Barbara Tuchman’s classic, The Guns of August, tells the story of how all the European powers that entered this conflict could not have imagined its consequences. At its end, the German, Russian, Ottoman and Austrian empires collapsed; the British and the French emerged weakened and too timid to stop the rise of Adolf Hitler and the rearmament of Germany.

It seems Putin had hoped to overrun Ukraine in a few weeks; that his soldiers would be welcomed with flowers (remember the Americans in Iraq?) and that he would install a puppet government in Kiev after which everything would go back to normal. If this is what he thought, then he exposes the hubris of the human imagination.

Over the last 70 years, nationalism has demonstrated its strength even in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds. How could Putin believe Ukrainians would accept Russian suzerainty? Hadn’t he learnt a lesson from the Soviet invasion and occupation of Afghanistan? What of the Americans in Iraq who thought they would be welcomed with flowers. And then there had been Vietnam, Somalia and most recently Afghanistan? Couldn’t Putin have also thought of the Israelis in Lebanon?

Looking back, the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians and their Western “friends” saved Putin from himself. Having failed to take over the entire country, it seems he has scaled down his ambitions. Moscow now seems to seek to annex those parts of Ukraine where the majority of inhabitants are ethnic Russians. This will create a security buffer for his country. But it is a very risky gamble. Russia is a multiethnic state. If Moscow seeks the independence of ethnic Russians from Ukraine, why shouldn’t non-Russian ethnic groups inside Russia, like in Chechnya, seek the same?

In response to the Russian invasion, the Western nations led by the USA imposed what they called “crippling sanctions” against Moscow. Like Putin, they overestimated their influence. The sanctions were aimed at Russia’s international trade and financial system. The West thought trade sanctions would deny Russia foreign exchange earnings and thereby collapse the rubble. Financial sanctions would make it hard for Moscow to buy goods from abroad. This would make it impossible for Putin to prosecute the war, thereby instigating the collapse of Russia’s military.

The projections, at least for now, have turned out to have been wrong. Russia’s trade surplus today is much bigger than it was before the war. The value of the Russian rubble vis a vis the dollar is today higher than before the war. This is partly because the Russian central bank put controls on capital and currency movements. But it is also because the sanctions increased the price of Russia’s main export, oil. Thus, although Russia is selling less oil today than before the war, it earns much more money.

The world economy has changed a lot compared to the one the Soviet Union confronted in its titanic struggle against the USA. In 1950, for example, the U.S. produced 50% of global GDP. Today it is 24% (in purchasing power parity, 14%). In 1960, the West as a whole produced close to 75% of global GDP. Today it is 40% in nominal dollars, less than 25% in PPP. Only four Western countries are in the top ten largest economies in the world in PPP – USA, Germany, France and the United Kingdom (plus Japan, if we call it western). In 1970, only Japan and USSR were.

So, while it was easy for America to economically strangle her enemies in the 1960s, that weapon is increasingly less effective today. In fact, the more America uses sanctions to fight her enemies, the more other countries and individuals continue to shift from the dollar as a global currency. The confiscation of Russian reserves, for example, has sent a powerful signal that no one is safe with the dollar. No country can imagine permanent friendship with America, hence the need to diversify their risks. The Russia invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. response marks a major turning point in America’s (like Rome’s) inevitable decline.

Now we turn to the West. The war in Ukraine has led to significant inflation caused by increased costs of energy compounded by the costs of COVID19. This has instigated a precipitous decline in living standards. Consequently, there is widespread discontent with the war and the sanctions, a factor that is strengthening far right parties. These parties are hostile to liberal democratic ideals which the West claims to be defending in Ukraine. The irony is that while the West is “defending democracy” in Ukraine (as if there was any democracy in that sorry country), this war is actually undermining it at home. Few governments in Western Europe can survive a far-right momentum if an election were held today.

What of the Ukrainians? Elites in Kiev seem to have been misled to think that the West were real allies whose main strategic goal was to defend her independence and sovereignty. It is obvious that the strategic goal of the West (read America) was to weaken Russia. The cost on Ukraine and its people are clearly of little concern except as crocodile tears.

I emphasise America because NATO members are her satellites. They can only do her bidding. This war was instigated by Russian fear of encirclement by NATO. That is why France and Germany had opposed Ukraine’s integration into the alliance. America ignored them and began to train and arm the Ukrainian army and make it a de facto member of NATO.

The U.S. calculated that if it trained and armed the Ukrainian army, it would provoke Russia to invade. And if Russia took this bait, they would give it its own Vietnam and Afghanistan. America could arm Ukrainian nationalist to fight Russia in a protracted war of attrition. Like it suffered in Vietnam, America calculated that no amount of fire power can defeat the forces of nationalism. Therefore, Russia would emerge from the conflict weakened even though Ukraine would be destroyed as a country and society. But this will not help Washington but Beijing. China will then have a powerfully armed nuclear state as an ally in her coming struggle with the USA – talk of shooting oneself in the foot.

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amwenda@independent.co.ug