Poll says Museveni wouldn’t win election

Findings of the poll

Of the 57% of the survey respondents said they are affiliated to political parties, 79% said they are the ruling NRM party supporters. This is a drop from the 82% who said they supported the NRM party in the lead up to the 2016 elections.

Similarly, disaggregated data per region shows that Museveni has his highest support in Bukedi, Lango and Tooro at 65% for each of these regions while his lowest support in Buganda at 27 percent. On the other hand, Kyagulanyi has his highest support in Bugisu (39%), Sebei (36%) and Busoga (30%) while his lowest support is reported in Rwenzori (2%) and Kigezi (3%). Dr. Besigye registers his highest support in Rwenzori (35%) while his lowest support is in Lango at seven percent.

Other issues polled about included the perception of the state of the economic living conditions, the lifting of the presidential age limit, managing transition and succession of political power at the presidential level.

People still bitter

The survey also shows that 59 percent of the population did not support the amendment of the constitution to remove age for persons seeking to contest for the presidency. It should be remembered that Uganda’s parliament removed the 75 year age limit in the Constitution that would have barred President Museveni from contesting in the 2021 election. Only 27 percent of the survey respondents supported the amendment while 14 percent of the respondents declined to comment on the issue.

Regarding the timing of Museveni’s retirement, 20 percent of the respondents would like to see President Museveni retire from the presidency immediately while another 15 percent would like to see him retire in 2021. On the other hand, 19 percent of the respondents would like to see him retire in 2026 while another 21 percent don’t want to see him ever retire. At least 25 percent of the respondents declined to comment on this issue.

The survey found that 23 percent of the population would choose Mr. Robert Kyagulanyi as the person to succeed President Museveni. Kyagulanyi is followed by Besigye at 10 percent and Muhoozi Keinerugaba at 6 percent.

Perceptions on economy

There is a general outlook of uncertainty on the economy.  Up to 79 of respondents said their living conditions were either very bad, bad, or neither good nor bad (40%). Only 20% reported their living conditions to be good (20%) or very good (1%). S

Political freedom

The overall findings from the survey is that Ugandans generally feel free to talk about politics in the country. The data shows that a combined 49 percent of the population were either very free or free to talk about politics as compared to a combined 26 percent who said they were not free or simply had no comment. The highest percentage (44%) of the population that reported not being free to talk about politics was in the Rwenzori region.

Perceptions on participation in the 2021 presidential elections

An overwhelming majority, up to 91 percent, expressed readiness to participate in the 2021 election. Only four percent said they will not participate while another five percent reported that they were undecided. Bugisu has the highest percentage of the population (14%) who reported that they were undecided. At least 60 of the respondents who indicated that they don’t intend to participate in the 2021 presidential elections perceive the elections not be free and fair. Up to35 percent reported that they did not have National Identification Numbers (NIN) while five percent indicated they won’t be participating in the elections because they are far away from the polling stations.

Perceptions on parliament

The survey found that 48 percent of the respondents intend to vote for their incumbent members of parliament compared to 43 percent who say otherwise. Regionally, the data shows that Sebei (72%), Bugisu (66%), Karamoja (65%) and Lango (65%) have the highest proportion of the population that are likely to vote their incumbent members of parliament. On the other hand, Bunyoro (60%) and Buganda (50%) have the highest proportion of the population that are likely to vote against incumbent members of parliament.

Is the country managed well?

At least 27 percent of the population perceive the country to be moving in the right direction while 26 percent perceive that the country is going in the wrong direction. Another 33 percent stated that the country was neither headed in the right or the wrong direction and 15 percent said they did not have an answer to the question. The data shows that Acholi (54%), Teso (44%) and Lango (43%) have the largest proportion of the population that perceive the country to be headed in the right direction while Busoga (49%) and Buganda (35%) have the highest proportion of the population that perceive the country to be headed in the wrong direction. A significant proportion of the population in Sebei (66%), Rwenzori (65%) and Ankole (52%) perceive the country to be heading neither in the wrong nor in the right direction.

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