Race on to stop climate destroying our health

As the planet is ravaged by heatwaves, droughts, floods and cyclones, economists are calling for better investment in health to save millions

ANALYSIS | AGENCIES | With 2024 being the hottest year on record, in which the Earth for the first time saw more than 1.5°C of warming since pre-industrial temperatures, climate change is arguably now the greatest threat to health.

Human beings in some of the poorest countries will need to battle extreme temperatures, floods, droughts and wildfires against a backdrop of overwhelmed health systems and economic crises.

This week, an analysis by the World Economic Forum mapped preventable human and economic impacts of climate change across 11 diseases, including malaria, dengue fever and cholera. It underlines how critical investments now could still save millions of lives.

Here are the four most important takeaways from the report.

1. Heatwaves and droughts will be the biggest killers

Climate change is estimated to cause an estimated 14.5 million deaths and US$ 12.5 trillion in economic costs by 2050 – and 500 million more people are likely to be exposed to vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue.

The WEF analysis showed that floods were found to pose the highest acute risk of climate-induced mortality, accounting for 8.5 million deaths by 2050.

Droughts, indirectly linked to extreme heat, are the second-highest cause of mortality, with an anticipated 3.2 million deaths. Heatwaves are likely to have the highest economic toll at an estimated US$ 7.1 trillion by 2050 due to the loss in productivity.

2. Low-resource countries will bear the brunt of negative health effects

The most vulnerable populations, including women, youth, elderly, lower-income groups and hard-to-reach communities, will be the most affected by climate-related impacts on health. Around 40 million people in Africa alone are living in severe drought conditions.

In sub-Saharan Africa, southern Asia and Central America, around 80 million people will be at risk of hunger by 2050. The populations facing a higher risk of food insecurity are also less likely to receive adequate support in mitigating the loss of livelihoods, property, and food and water supplies.

The WEF analysis showed that floods were found to pose the highest acute risk of climate-induced mortality, accounting for 8.5 million deaths by 2050. Droughts, indirectly linked to extreme heat, are the second-highest cause of mortality, with an anticipated 3.2 million deaths.

By 2030, more than 2% of total working hours worldwide are projected to be lost every year because it is either too hot to work or people need to work more slowly because of the heat.

Flooding is set to cause enormous devastation, and trigger a spike in malaria and dengue. Malaria, a vector-borne disease that thrives in stagnant water, is projected to have a significant impact, costing approximately US$ 1 trillion and impacting 409 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) – a measure of the overall burden of disease, including the impact of disability and early death.

3. Investment in enhanced prevention, improved diagnostics and novel treatments could save millions of lives

Despite these gloomy predictions, the WEF analysis estimates that 6.5 million lives could be saved, economic losses reduced by US$ 5.8 trillion and 1 billion fewer disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) accrued.

The report points to the success of key public-private partnerships such as the COVAX Facility, which was designed to ensure equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines worldwide. This helped hundreds of millions of people in low-income countries receive COVID-19 vaccines they otherwise wouldn’t have.

4. Building climate-resilient health systems

The report calls for the evolution of climate-resilient healthcare and delivery systems, in which effectiveness and accessibility are primary objectives. These systems will need to both protect people from climate shocks as well as aid recovery from health crises.

This ability to ‘bounce back’ will require the development of innovative treatments for infectious diseases, drug delivery innovations and preparedness planning of emergency services in anticipation of climate events.

The development of resilient systems will also need to include “adaptation planning, infrastructure resilience, disease surveillance and response, capacity building, innovative research and development, continuous evidence gathering and policy integration.”