Rwanda border closure

The Daily Monitor of October 17, 2001 reported that Rwanda had informed its diplomatic missions in Kigali that Uganda intended to attack within 48 hours.

But Minister Short of the UK and Presidents Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania immediately called Museveni to express concern over the “impending” war. Under pressure, Kagame and Museveni promised not to be the first to shoot.

This time, there has been no open deployment of military assets by Uganda. Police was put on high alert.  Any military deployment has been covert.

Mutual suspicion

According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), an independent international NGO that has studied the conflict, most of the suspicion is based on faulty intelligence, biased perceptions and permanent suspicion, and concerns of infiltration.

As allies, Museveni and Kagame led the three wars that transformed the Great Lakes political landscape into what it is today.  In 1980, they led the National Resistance Army (NRA) war that brought Museveni to power in 1986. From 1990 to 1994, they allied again in a war that kicked Juvenal Habyarimana out of Rwanda and installed Kagame’s RPF into power. Then from 1996 to 1997 they allied again to kick Mobutu Sese Seko out of power in then-Zaire (now Dr Congo) and install Laurent-Désiré Kabila.

Over this period, Rwanda has sought to assert itself and has rejected any attempt to perceive it as an extension on the Kampala government. Uganda on the other appears unable to view Rwanda as anything but a dependent state that should not challenge its leadership in the region and on the international stage. The fall-out of this conflict now risks dismantling their legacy.

According to an ICG report titled `Rwanda/Uganda: A Dangerous War of Nerves’ of December 2001, “in many aspects, the Rwanda-Uganda quarrel looks indeed like an irrational and emotional family feud, between the Bahima Bayankole leaders of Uganda and the Tutsi Rwandan refugees who lived in Ankole since 1959 after the Hutu “social revolution” in Rwanda and headed home through battle in 1990. They captured power in 1994.

While in Uganda, the Rwandan played prominent roles. President Paul Kagame himself was the head of Uganda military intelligence in 1986. Col. Jack Nziza, who in 2001 was the director of Rwandan military intelligence, had close family relationship with form Ugandan IGP Kale Kayihura, who was a senior Museveni aide at the time. Then director of Rwanda’s External Security Organisation (ESO), Patrick Karegyeya, had relatives in Mbarara. Then RPA chief of staff, Maj. Gen. Kayumba Nyamwasa, was an assistant RDC of Gulu. Maj. Alphonse Furuma was head of the economic desk in Museveni’s office in 1988/89. Their common past creates permanent suspicion and fuels concerns for infiltration.

According to the ICG: “Their intimate twenty-year collaboration means that they know all of each other’s secrets. This feeds paranoia within the top leaderships and tendencies to see previously close associates as possible enemies.

“The Rwanda leadership now views Museveni as domineering and patronising. He is known for his belief in negotiations as a war strategy that he used in both the struggle against the military junta in Uganda in 1986 and in 1994 in Rwanda on behalf of the RPF. This makes it difficult for the leadership in Kigali to trust Museveni’s commitment to any agreement. In return, the Ugandan leadership views Kagame as resilient, driven by the need for recognition as a fighter, arrogant and unwilling to listen to advice.

These perceptions lead to fears and allegations that the RPA has infiltrated all security services in Uganda and could try to eliminate senior officials, including Museveni himself, to settle scores. Such fears have led to the hunt for Tutsis hiding as Banyankole Bahima within the Ugandan security services.

Commenting on the current tension on March 04, the Uganda Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Okello Oryem said it was a dispute between “blood brothers”.

“Uganda and Rwanda are two blood brothers; in this regard, you cannot rule out simple misunderstanding as families do. I beg for calm and patience from both sides,” he said in a tweet.

Cross-border kidnapping

Talk of kidnappings has always been common and is usually well timed. In one incident, Ugandan soldiers reportedly kidnapped a Rwandan soldier at the border on November 06, 2001 as Museveni and Kagame were in London at a meeting hosted amidst tension by then British Minister for International Development, Clare Short.

In a scathing diplomatic maneuver, Rwandan had circulated a letter that Museveni had written on 28 August 2001 to Clare Short requesting additional aid to restore Uganda’s capacity to protect itself against Rwanda. In the letter, Museveni described the RPF regime as “ideologically bankrupt”. Museveni told Short that Kagame had a bigger army than Uganda; at 100,000 officers and men under arms compared to Uganda’s 40,000. He wanted an additional U.S. $139 million on top of approximately U.S. $113 million in existing defence aid at the time.

It was a secret letter but Rwanda got it and sent it to all leaders of the Great Lakes region and to key diplomats at the UN headquarters in New York.

The letter was the centerpiece of the London meeting, which was the second meeting between Museveni and Kagame. They had met at the Gatuna border on July 06. They met again in September 2001 in Durban, South Africa, and October 12. All meetings had failed to resolve the tension. By the time we went to press, there were no meetings between Ugandan and Rwandan principals or diplomats this time.

Unwanted appointments

Now, as in 2001, Uganda and Rwanda are wary of each other of backing and harbouring opponents and infiltrating their security agencies. They have reacted by shuffling their officers.

Museveni moved first in January 2017. He elevated Col. Frank Kaka Bagyenda to head of the Internal Security Organisation (ISO) and Brig. Gen. Abel Kandiho to head the Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence (CMI).  They represent the security old-guard which includes the Lt. Gen. Henry Tumukunde, who until March 4, 2018 was minster for Security. Col. Kaka was with Museveni in the bush war from 1981 and worked with Kagame in intelligence and covert operation. He was also reportedly involved in the RPF war to capture Kigali. He forged alliances with Rwandan army and fell out with others. Brig. Kandiho is also said to have few friends in Kigali where he worked until the early 2000s and clashed with Rwandan security operatives.