Syrian political shift may have profound effects on Turkish economy:

ANKARA | Xinhua | The downfall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government could have profound effects on Türkiye’s economy, offering both opportunities and challenges, experts have said.

Turkish companies are expected to compete for “lucrative” contracts to rebuild Syria’s housing and infrastructure, said Engin Guner, a construction industry expert from Ankara, citing Turkish firms’ good experience in post-conflict reconstruction of roads, houses, utilities, etc.

A militant alliance led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group waged a major offensive from northern Syria on Nov. 27 and had since swept southwards through areas held by al-Assad’s government. Following territorial gains, including the capture of the capital Damascus, the alliance declared the end of al-Assad’s rule on Sunday.

After the rapid fall of al-Assad’s government, shares of building and construction companies surged on the Istanbul Stock Exchange.

Before the conflict, Syria was a key trade partner for Türkiye. Ali Oguz Dirioz, an associate professor of international relations at Ankara’s TOBB University of Economics and Technology, highlights the potential economic benefits of reopening trade routes.

“Restoring logistical links could significantly boost bilateral trade and open up new opportunities for energy and infrastructure cooperation,” he said.

On the other hand, Türkiye’s budget has been stretched by the financial burden of hosting approximately 3.7 million Syrian refugees, covering costs such as education, healthcare, and social services. According to a UN report updated on Nov. 30, Türkiye has become the largest host of Syrians who have fled a civil war.

Mustafa Sonmez, an independent economist in Istanbul, believes repatriation of Syrian refugees could relieve the government’s fiscal pressures, reduce consumption, and lower indirect tax revenues.

Syrian refugees have made significant contributions to Türkiye’s domestic consumption, particularly in housing. Their departure could reduce demand for rental properties, potentially stabilizing the housing market and lowering rental prices, Sonmez added.

However, some experts express concern that the return of refugees could strain Türkiye’s labor market.

In 2023, Türkiye’s Ministry of Labor and Social Security issued work permits to around 108,000 Syrians. Industry officials believe the actual number of Syrian employees is much higher, underscoring the potential impact of their departure.

Abdullah Sezgin, an employer in Gaziantep, a city near the Syrian border, told Xinhua that his textile business could face serious challenges if many Syrian workers decide to return home. “If they leave in large numbers, businesses here could struggle due to rising personnel costs,” Sezgin explained. ■