The end of opposition

Museveni welcomes rebels

At the same time, the leader of the ruling NRM party, President Yoweri Museveni, appears determined to collect as many MPs as are available.

On July 14, Museveni met with 16 so-called rebel MPs who many commentators had predicted would be switching to the opposition. Instead, they were at State House to beg forgiveness from Museveni and be allowed to carry the party flag in the 2021 elections.

“We are here as your sons and daughters. We request you to forgive us and we move on,” said Kumi Woman MP, Monica Amoding, on behalf of her 16 colleagues.

“When duty calls we are here and ready for deployment,” said Lwemiyaga MP, Theodore Ssekikubo; the most loud-mouthed of them.

“Without your revolution, we wouldn’t be in that Parliament so thank you for this opportunity and please forgive us,” said another loud-mouth, Workers MP Sam Lyomoki.

And Museveni was as magnanimous and forgiving as always for the sake of unity within the party.

President Museveni’s approach was in stark contrast with what was happening at the FDC headquarters. There, the FDC electoral body was vetting candidates and kicking out some, including MPs and long-term members.

When Kampala Woman MP Nabilah Ssempala returned nomination forms for the Kampala mayoral race on July 15, the FDC elections refused to accept them, saying correctly, that Nabilah was late.

The FDC’s attitude was doubly perplexing at a time when popular, powerful names were quitting the party in droves.  Those leaving include Winfred Kiiza (District Woman Representative for Kasese), Ogenga Latigo (Agago North County), Robert Centenary (Kasese Municipality), Odonga Otto (Aruu County), Reagan Okumu (Aswa County) and Paul Mwiru (Jinja Municipality East). Others are Angelline Osegge (Soroti District Woman), Elijah Okupa (Kasilo County), Herbert Ariko (Soroti Municipality), Simon Oyet (Nwoya County), and Francis Gonahasa (Kabweri County).

Okupa, Osege, and Ariko had been barred from the nomination exercise apparently because they had “pending issues to resolve” with the party. Amuriat, who is from the same region of Teso with them was infuriated that the three supported Mugisha Muntu during the 2017 fight for the FDC presidency.

Following that fight, 15 FDC MPs stopped remitting contributions to the party. Instead of seeking to reconcile, the party leadership threatened them with a law suit in 2019.

Sabiti Makara, a political analyst and lecturer at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Makerere University said the exodus from the FDC should not be taken lightly.

“It is really a worrying situation for the strongest opposition party now losing so many people,” he told The Independent on July 17.

Makara said that FDC leader, Amuriat, should have anticipated that this crisis would arise and should have reached out to members to understand their grievances and find a solution. Going forward, he said, Amuriat should focus on retaining members that have not yet thought of leaving and recruit news ones.

“His leadership may not be working very well in the party,” Makara said, “It could be lacking strong charisma.”

Amuriat, apart from lacking charisma and being the weakest leader FDC has had since its inception in 2004, has failed to perform one critical function of a political party leader; he has failed to mobilise resources for the party. According to several sources, the FDC is broke. It has no money to support candidates carrying its flag. It is probable it would not be faced with an exodus if the party had money and was promising to fund some of the campaign activities of its candidates.

FDC broke

Even its defacto leader, Kizza Besigye, who pulls the string from his office at Katonga Road, appears to have exhausted his funds mobilization appeal among donors from Europe and America. Instead, according to Makara, the big names leaving the party are those who are saying that “the dominant role of Besigye is not democratising the party as much as they want”. Many are not excited about the prospect of Besigye again carrying the FDC flag for the fifth time in a presidential race against Museveni. They want another candidate. Unfortunately, FDC has not revealed a new crop of leaders since the departure of its former president Mugisha Muntu.

As a result, Amuriat, does not have a challenger in spite of being the weakest leader the party has had. Amuriat’s would be challenger, party secretary general Nandala Mafabi, also kowtows to Besigye.

Mugisha Muntu might turn out to be a beneficiary of the lackluster leadership in FDC. Viewed largely as a leader with inspiration and no fire, Muntu had failed to attract politicians looking for short-term action. But his Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) party is increasing getting a second look from parliamentary hopefuls. There is talk that donors from western capitals are looking favourable at him and supporting him financially. Two incumbent MPs; Paul Mwiru (Jinja Municipality East) and Gerald Karuhanga (Ntungamo Municipality) have already indicated they would run on an ANT ticket in 2021. A few others have said “they are considering the possibility”.