The fall of Omar Bashir

There is hope Sudan is more likely to go the way of Tunisia than Libya or Somalia. The protests against Bashir were organised by that nation’s middleclass made up of professional associations including educated women, not by some primitive and violent groups organising around fanatical religious identity such as Boko Haram and Al Shabab. This is evidence of his contribution to the cultivation of democracy and enlightenment in that country.

I suspect this outcome has largely been because Bashir presided over a rapidly growing economy in Sudan. Between 1989 and 2013, Sudan was the 4^th fastest growing economy in the world – at an annual rate of 8.41%. Today with a GDP of $120 billion and only 43 million people, Sudan’s economy is larger than the combined economies of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi with a population of over 100 million souls. This growth led to increased urbanisation, increased education and therefore exposure of the population. It nurtured the professionals that have led the protests. The lesson we draw from this is that a transformative leader has greater potential to precipitate his own downfall than a stagnant predator – Karl Marx called this the gravedigger problem.

One reason transformative leaders are susceptible to causing their own downfall is that development tends to nurture social forces that develop interests that transcend initial growth. These social forces are thus able too convert their new social position into a powerful political force. Stagnant economies do the opposite: they stifle the emergence of social forces like a large and diversified middle class, a large labouring class in cities, and a large and educated population with sufficient exposure to seek greater change. Peasants tending to jiggers in villages are unlikely to lead a mass uprising. As a relief to many frustrated Ugandans, in Museveni’s pursuit of growth, he is nourishing his own enemy.

Therefore, I look at Bashir as a democratiser in that country. A democratising leader need not personally and consciously organise a transition to democracy, however attractive such a proposition is in our religious approach to politics these days. All he needs to do is preside over a state that nurtures the social forces that advance democratic politics. I do not share the religious view that great leaders should be judged by what they intend to consciously do. Rather the greatness of a leader is based on what they produce – whether they intended it or not is irrelevant.

A capitalist does not innovate and invest because he/she wants to serve some noble social objective of creating jobs or paying taxes to the state. Instead he/she innovates and invests purely out of a selfish motive to make money for him/herself and become rich. However, his/her selfish actions produce an outcome with many socially beneficial objectives – such as jobs and paying taxes to the state. This is how capitalism, whose foundational creed is that everyone should seek that which is to their immediate monetary advantage has led to unprecedented prosperity.

This logic applies to Bashir as well. May be he wanted to cling to power forever. That for me is really irrelevant – in the wider scheme of things. To keep power, Bashir’s government pursued policies and programs that nurtured enlightened social forces, which have toppled him and have potential to bequeath Sudan a democratic government.

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