The power of social media

This created a danger. Social media is susceptible to misrepresentations, forgeries and lies especially in the hands of highly impassioned and creative groups. Fake results can be announced even before closure of polling. Videos, photographs and documents showing rigging in progress can easily be manufactured to create a virtual reality of massive rigging. This would make it difficult to protect the integrity of the polling process.

The inability of the NRM and the state to effectively participate in social media conversations and debates led to an inevitable fatal error – its shutdown during polling. Many people may never know (or agree) that the primary aim of shutting down social media was to protect the integrity of the polling process.

Opposition activists had begun producing stage-managed videos and photo-shopped pictures showing massive rigging underway. There was even a hashtag on Twitter called “rigging in progress” where evidence of ballot stuffing was being manufactured using modern software to create an alternative reality.

Besigye had very little organisational infrastructure to give him victory. But social media amplified his voice and allowed easy mobilisation of his supporters.

For the first time, Museveni’s monopoly of traditional media (which he has attained through state control, intimidation, and bribery) was outcompeted by Besigye’s control of social media, which his army of fanatics attained through verbal terrorism.

On the face of it, this was democracy at work: people’s multiple voices could be heard beyond the reach of state control. But there was also a risk: such lies and forgeries undermine democracy. The actions taken to protect the integrity of the polling process achieved the exact opposite. In the eyes of many, they were seen as aimed at rigging the vote in favor of Museveni.

And this was not an entirely wrong interpretation; many in Museveni’s camp were afraid of the pro Besigye mass hysteria online, mistaking if for mass support across the country. So they sought shelter in the state in order to rig. But rigging cannot work for the weak. They lost in Kampala and Wakiso in spite of delayed delivery of ballot papers.

In many ways it was a replay of December 10, 1980. Democratic Party officials saw their candidates across Buganda and Busoga trouncing UPC candidates by margins of nine to one.

This led them to believe stories that similar trouncing was happening across the country. Rumours began circulating of DP winning constituencies where polling was still under way and where UPC has winning by large margins. This state of affairs led Adoko Nekyon to call a press conference at DP headquarters and announce DP President Paul Ssemogerere’s victory.

DP supporters flooded Kampala streets and began jubilations. To protect the integrity of the polling process, Paulo Muwanga, who was the head of the interim government, issued a proclamation stopping anyone announcing results except him.

It also legalised the extension of voting to the next day. But Muwanga’s proclamation achieved the exact opposite i.e. it convinced everyone that Muwanga was rigging the election for UPC. Besigye knows the psychology of the state in Uganda under Museveni; its penchant for use of military and police hardware to enforce its will, especially in times of crisis; its reliance on financial as opposed to ideological incentives to secure compliance with its desires, a factor that floods it with many opportunists looking for a quick financial payoff thereby crowding out the more politically grounded supporters. But these actions undermine the legitimacy even of well-intentioned state actions.

Besigye’s supporters are inspired by their candidate and genuinely see him as a redeemer seeking to bring them deliverance from the grip of a corrupt, greedy and selfish “regime”. There is nothing more valuable in politics than faith in a higher goal that seems to stand above self-interest.

Therefore in the competition for public perception, Museveni’s paid handlers could not out talk and out post Besigye’s passionate believers on social media. We may never know the truths even if there was to be a vote recount. But we can infer from FDC’s lack of organisational presence in most of the country (NRM contested 10,656 positions unopposed) that it was unlikely for Besigye to beat Museveni. However, Besigye proved that you do not need actual votes to “win.” You can use social media to create a particular mindset; especially among your passionate supporters – that you won.

amwenda@independent.co.ug