The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
How Bobi Wine is turning his moment of triumph into a missed opportunity for strategic leadership
THE LAST WORD | Andrew M. Mwenda | Bobi Wine is without any doubt a great guy. His greatness does not lie in his thinking but in his character. And that could be the problem. A little over three years ago, he was largely known as a weed-smoking Rastafarian who sings good music often with strong political undertones. Then by one stroke of political intuition, he transformed himself into a major national political figure and international star, totally eclipsing Dr. Kizza Besigye, the principled, courageous but belligerent leader of Uganda’s opposition. He then took on the indefatigable President Yoweri Museveni by the horns for the presidency and gave him a real run for his money.
How did this singer turned politician come from nowhere and stage such a brilliant political coup? Many people, including me, grossly underestimated the power of Bobi Wine’s appeal. His bid for the presidency exposed the soft underbelly of the Museveni electoral coalition. First it proved that our hitherto invincible president could be defeated in an electoral contest in his Buganda base. Second, and as an insight from the first, that the much talked about rigging machinery of the NRM is actually a myth.
If Museveni is so good at rigging, why did he lose Buganda so miserably to this upstart? Where did his rigging machinery go? Why did he lose the North in 1996, 2001 and 2006 by huge margins but do well there in 2011? Why did he in 2016 lose Rukungiri and Kaseese in Western Uganda? How come he has often lost Kampala and Wakiso? What does the opposition do in all the areas that they can transplant to other regions? This is where the rigging mantra fails to add up. If it exists, this shows that with good support and proper organization, it can be beaten. Period.
Yet Bobi Wine, perhaps because he was carried by his emotions as opposed to his insight, failed to see the blow he had delivered against Museveni. Like Besigye before him, Bobi Wine saw the trees but missed the forest. He is a man of tactics, not strategy. He retreated to that old and tired mantra that has blinded Uganda’s opposition of the possibilities in front of them – allegations of rigging.
So Bobi Wine refused to concede defeat and regurgitated the claims that Museveni stole his votes. Once you lock yourself into this echo chamber of opposition activists’ victimhood card, you lose sight of all the opportunities before you.
Museveni’s electoral coalition has always been based on holding his Western base, keeping Buganda under his thumb as the Mecca of his revolution and being competitive in the East.
Museveni has always been willing to lose the North. In 1996, 2001 and 2006, Museveni was badly beaten there, but he never lost any sleep over it. Then comes Bobi Wine and by one stroke redraws the electoral map by literary chasing Museveni out of Buganda. What a feat! Does he see this? Do his handlers see its significance?
Bobi Wine is not a tribal chauvinist as his NRM critics allege. I don’t even think he has much attachment to his Buganda identity
What if in 2026 Bobi Wine kept Buganda, took the North with the margins Besigye had and became competitive in the East, what would happen to Museveni?
Bobi Wine is not a tribal chauvinist as his NRM critics allege. I don’t even think he has much attachment to his Buganda identity. Bobi Wine grew up in the ghetto in Kamwokya. That is his real tribe where his true feelings of belonging lie. At worst he is a ghetto chauvinist, selecting many around him based on their social-economic background than their ethnicity. If Baganda voted for him in large numbers, it is because they saw him as their son more than he saw them as his kin. They were opportunists who sought to cling on his brand.
The real danger Bobi Wine paused in central Uganda is that by his sheer charisma, he was able to win over two very powerful social institutions at the heart of Museveni’s political survival – Mengo (the seat of the powerful Buganda Kingdom, home of Uganda’s largest tribe) and Rubaga (the seat of the Roman Catholic Church, Uganda’s largest religion).
The shortfall is that his bromance with Rubaga did not go beyond Buganda, but he has the potential to take it across the country. Bobi Wine also suffered a demographic deficit in these two social institutions, with many elderly people not seeing him as presidential and thus opting not to vote.
Yet this is only a short-term handicap, if Bobi Wine sought to play the long game. He can rebrand himself and by 2026 (who knows?), he can look presidential. But Bobi Wine is focused on the here and now (tactics) and has missed tomorrow (strategy). There were many irregularities and some rigging. But anyone serious enough to look at the numbers would see that Museveni would have won anyway.
In fact I think the torment by security services against Bobi Wine played into his hands. It gave him free prime time publicity on radio and television where he had been blocked. By election time, his brand awareness was above 90%.
For Museveni to hold Bobi Wine’s momentum towards 2026, he needs him to reject the electoral results. This is a signal that Bobi Wine wants his supporters to challenge the results on the streets i.e. stage an insurrection. It is this suspicion that justifies the security cordon around Bobi Wine.
So for the next five years, he is going to be tightly monitored and controlled because his every movement around Kampala, like Besigye’s before him, will be attracting large crowds supporters demanding action to reclaim “people power.”
These efforts are emotionally gratifying but not politically productive. They play into Museveni’s security-and-stability hands. The constant street battles with the security services will leave Bobi Wine psychologically and physically exhausted. This will take away the energy and focus he needs to build his brand in the north and east where he has good chances of growth if he can win the Catholic Church there. Now that is the long game I am talking about.
What should Bobi Wine do?
He should concede defeat, even though pointing out the many irregularities in the electoral process. He should tell his supporters that: “we know Museveni and expected all these irregularities. We entered the race factoring them into our electoral equation. But now we need to move on and focus on 2026 and I appeal to all of you my supporters to follow me on project 2026.”
To calm Museveni’s nerves further, Bobi Wine would not do anything in Buganda – not for now. He has it already. He would begin with West Nile, move to Lango and Acholi, ignore Karamoja and focus on Teso, Bugisu and Bukedi. He already has Busoga.
Museveni is unlikely to mount serious charm offensives because he is old and tired. And many around him don’t believe in his vision anymore. They believe in their individual survival. By 2026, candidate Bobi Wine could surprise us big time and shutter the myth of Museveni’s electoral invincibility. All Bobi Wine needs is faith and the ability to look beyond the immediate and play the long and quiet game.
*****
amwenda@independent.co.ug
“Bobi Wine is not a tribal chauvinist as his NRM critics allege.” Actually, he is just that – a tribal leader. After that, he would seek to impose Buganda’s “supremacy” on the rest of the country. He has the support of Mayiga and other Mengo insiders. They are using him to try and “conquer” the rest of the country to support the supremacy of his ethnic group and subdue them on its behalf. The rest who have their own grievances were expected to give him support. But some of them realized and sought to have their own representatives at the seat of power. Many in other parts of the country realized it was futile voting in the opposition or remaining in the opposition and miss having a voice in the parliament. There are benefits for them in joining the ruling party in order to move to the centre from the periphery. Bobi Wine does not represent their historical marginalization. He would be reinforcing their domination where they have chauvinistically been looked at as inferior. This can be detected by the sentiments from Bobi Wine’s ethnic group.
That’s true, he’s exactly a tribal chauvinist
Andrew Mwenda seems to ignore the agency/self-interest of the voters, when he insinuates that voters only chose Bobi Wine because of Mengo, Catholic Church,etc. The failures of M7 /NRM are obvious to even child such that the unhappy voters never needed any encouragement from anyone especially the Church or Mengo to vote against M7.
He also over estimates the power & role of Mengo & Catholic Church in the everyday life of people in Buganda. Mengo & Catholic church never give anything to ordinary Muganda but rather take from them. For Catholic church, it takes tithe every Sunday,charges exorbitant fees at it hospitals & schools like Nsambya hospital, St Mary’s College Kisubi & even it’s Centenary Bank charges the ordinary Muganda usurious interest rate like other banks. Mengo is equally exploitative as it charges high ground rents, some of its agents in Buganda land Board are known for grabbing & selling Baganda’s Bibanja, etc. People usually only follow orders from entities giving them something , hence it’s far-fetched that they will follow suggestions of whom to vote from Mengo or the Catholic Church.
The insinuations of personal “long-sightedness” also fall flat. Suggesting that Bobi Wine should now focus on 2026 by doing groundwork in WestNile, Eastern & Northern Uganda while ignoring Buganda assumes very improbable scenarios. That M7 will allow Bobi Wine to broaden his reach outside of Buganda & Busoga. That towards the 2026 election M7 will be less nervous about Buganda & will then allow Bobi Wine the room to reinvigorate that support that he will have ignored for 4years if he followed Mwenda’s advice.
M7’s battle for 2026 against Bobi Wine is already in play. There is sustained attack to brand Bobi Wine & NUP’s recent electoral victories as a tribal/sectarian affair & seeks to alienate Bobi Wines’ non-Baganda & non-catholic supporters in both Buganda/Busoga & other parts of the country. This tribalist branding will continue to 2026.
It will also be political suicide for Bobi wine to concede to defeat especially with the circulating videos & firsthand accounts of ballot stuffing & other malpractices. As these have reinforced Bobi Wines’ supporters beliefs of their being cheated. This plus the increasing international pressure offers Bobi Wine an opportunity to even exert more of his current advantage. And M7 is likely to reflexively unleash more violence diminishing his support domestically & internationally. With M7’s current anxiety he may unleash just enough violence plus the making the usual reckless statements like gadaffi did to allow direct international intervention in Uganda that will force M7 out.
We have been there before not once
Who was Semei Nyanzi and many others?
The church has never ignored injustice
These “biological substances”, “toilet paper”, “thieves”, “harlots” as described by Ugandans occupy a Geographical area, have some common practices but rarely go for block decisions
These are Independent minded people united by culture and values
when they served as grass, as elephants fought, some wilted and died and others did sprout with minimum assistance.
How hatred blinds man!
Living things when subjected to uncomfortable conditions adjust as a means of survival ( Charles Darwin)
kindly generate a hypothesis and use the scientific method to get answers
Mbu “what should Bobi Wine do?” World over, quite a good number of journalists amuse me, but none amuses me more than Andrew Mwenda. His prediction, advice and analysis, more especially when he likes someone as he does with president M7 can be more based on emotions rather than reality. He wrote on this forum many times that Besigye’s Miltant style was putting off many educated and fence seaters from voting and if a person like Muntu contested, he would attract many of such and increase voter turnout . I argued that Mwenda’s argument was null and void as Muntu would do very badly. Time came and muntu contested and I was happy as I knew mwenda’s argument was unrealistic. I noted it on this forum again during the recent campaigns and by then Mwenda had sensed that he would be put to shame, and wrote some sketch article about such. Your advice is misleading and rarely works. Leave Bobi alone.
when does the Central region become Buganda?
when you create a critical mass of people with similar concerns, they are bound to effect change
the supporters of the candidate, identified with him, how does that become a regional crime?
The Speaker and a minister for lands have an explanation for the voting pattern in their home area but for
central region there is sinister motive!
You put some effort into studying the experience of voters from central region in order to develop a theory
grounded in the data gathered; I hope you will recruit data collectors who understand the language. Please
do not massage the findings
I hope you will subsequently unlearn the content from indoctrination against the central region
What is amusing me with most of the journalists who are on m7 side are on pressure as if m7 wasn’t declared a winner but i think every logical and critical person has no doubt to believe that these people like Andrew Mwenda, Ambassador Gyagenda Ssenakula and others May have been campaigning for m7 in the Central as a job and now the big man is now putting them on pressure to account for his lose in the Central because most of them are speaking the same language. But please Mwenda and your group pray hard this doesn’t go beyond this, those weak excuses like tribalism you know it better than me that it didn’t cause that voting pattern in central. Am a mugwere of Mbale but i want tell you most people who voted for m7 fall mostly in two categories, the first and biggest are those who are uninformed and misinformed and the second group is that of people who benefit directly in government. When it comes to advising bobi wine just try to listen to your self.
1.I cried during M7’s victory speech where he said he still wants to be President to guide and Cleary see Africa follow the right Sociopolitical path.
2.Uganda is not yet ready for a Civilian President coz of her past.
3.The Geopolitics and the contribution of Uganda in the region could not allow any Tom to be President.
4.The people from the North and Western Uganda are surrounded by nations that are not stable thats why they voted for M7.
5. The Colonialists made the Baganda and Northerners believe that they were masters of Administration that’s why up to now the Westerners are despised,no one will believe that a good,Doctor,Engneer,Economits,Lawyer can be a Westerner.they even believe that the wealth they have is a fluke.
6.The Buganda are living in the past gory where Coffee was the key cash and the Kabaka was worshiped.These days we have Tourism,Minerals,Milk that supplements the economy and Social media and Christianity have replaced worshipping kings.
7.The Baganda voted like Adolescents.
8.It was not necessary for the army to torture Bobi coz even if worse came to worst they still had the guns and means to declare M7 winner.
9.The Westerners should earn to be social with other tribes,they even eat pork alone.
10.Counting of Votes found Rajab and Ejakaat in women’s house.
11.Uganda ‘s PR on the international Areana is tainted even a mere Japdhola like Ofwono had the nerve to abuse the US ambassador to Uganda
But Winnie, either you are being cynical/sarcastic about Gen Tibuhaburwa dishonesty and empty rhetoric; or from what I know is that: people like you who unreasonably/emotionally cry (shed tears) because of the conjure of a conman like Mr. Museveni, suffer from dependency syndrome and other psychological shortfall.
I will address the elephant in the room. A Muganda can’t win an election outside of Central region. But non-Baganda including M7 have been winning elections in Buganda. M7 won his home region of Western Uganda by a landslide. But that isn’t sectarianism since only the tribalistic Baganda are capable of that. Past the momentary prejudice, Baganda don’t care that much about tribe — a privilege I guess. They care about values and interests. And if you share the same values and interests as them, you’re one of them regardless of your name or mother tongue. Baganda also get rubbed the wrong way by savagery, arrogance, and crookery. M7 and party have shown themselves over and over again to suffer from all the aforementioned vices. Baganda voted for their values and interests this time around. It’s an accident that they voted as a block.
Baker Kawesa, you are not addressing the elephant in the room, but a mouse in the kitchen cabinet. In other words, it is being stereotypical and a fallacy to say that a Muganda can’t win a election outside Central Region. E.g., I was told that during the 1996 Election the Greater Northen Uganda massively voted votted for Dr. Kawanga Ssemogerere.
This time around, if Mr. Tibuhaburwa did not make it impossible for Kyagulanyi to systematically campaign peacefully and throughout the country, Kyagulanyi I suppose a typical Muganda, would have had a humiliating landslide victory over Gen Museveni.
Bobi is not his own man. His reckless naivety makes him an ideal puppet for M7’s opponents. He needs to watch his back because I see sly older politicians in his camp pulling the rug under his feet.
His personal achievements from nothing by the age of 38 aren’t accidental.
You who isn’t naive blah, blah what have u achieved so far in your obscure existence?
We should confuse our impressions or opinions of people with facts.
Hi Andrew,
As an Afro-Canadian whom look at Africa with the yearning for good governance and a media that holds politicians whom have overstated their usefulness (such as Mugabe in Zimbabwe), I am very disappointed with the gist of your article. Have you ever heard the saying; power corrupts but absolute power corrupts absolutely?
How can such blessed countries with vast riches in minerals and oil have so many people in desperate poverty? The answer is…. it is too easy to look the other way and say “All we needs is faith and the ability to look beyond the immediate and play the long and quiet game.”
We all need to choose a side, either the side of good with self sacrifice OR the side of evil and greed.
I will ask you! Would you have been one of those people who said to Mandela in South Africa that “All we needs is faith and the ability to look beyond the immediate and play the long and quiet game.” How about my ancestor whom suffered brutal despicable inhuman slavery in North America? Would you tell them that “All we needs is faith and the ability to look beyond the immediate and play the long and quiet game.”
A European writer once said in regards to the people whom look the other in Nazi Germany (as you are advising Bobi Wine) “today they come for your neighbor and you do nothing and say nothing, then they come for you”
In closing, I categorically reject your article and say SHAME ON YOU for giving support to tyranny and in so doing confuse the issue for people in the west whom may be able to help bring clarity to a very bad situation currently in Uganda. Let’s not forget recent history, the great hopes that Mugabe brought to Zimbabwe which ended with a failed state because he wanted to die in power, he refused to do the honourable thing which was to conclude that he did not own the country nor was the country his family piggy bank. So sad. How can anyone in the developed world show any respect for Uganda when Uganda does not have respect for itself.
1.Prophet Elvis Mbonye is a true prophet. He said Museveni would win and Bobi Wine would lose. And that Yoga would die. And that also Trump would lose by a landslide.
2.Victor you are right about Bobi being illuminati. I just saw a YouTube video of a lady exposing Kyagulani’s affiliation with the occult.
3.Museveni is the best president in Africa. I love how he cares about the welfare of us Ugandans. God bless our president and if possible with long life to a ripe old age of 175 +
4.For all school going children, endeavor to study law. It is the best profession ever!
5. Besigye and Muntu love chips, chicken and pork.
6.The supreme court will defend God’s choice of president elect Museveni against shameless thug Bobi Wine’s appeal. And with Elvis Mbonye’s intercession, Museveni will come out victorious.
7. Long live Museveni. Long live NRM. And long live Uganda!
@Winnie. Elvis Mbonye is a false prophet. He is not using the power of God. Only God is the giver of life. Yoga shall live and not die. Mbonye too is a devil worshiper and evil. Don’t be surprised when you meet him in hell. He does not have power over life and death. It is only God who is the judge. God has already judged the devil and he is awaiting the lake of fire. And you Winnie you worship idols. Don’t worship Museveni while calling for others to die. You too are sectarian and evil. I read where you wrote that “Ofwono Opondo was a mere Japhdola.” Why did you disparage Ofwono Opondo if you are saying, “Museveni is the best president in Africa?” He is the government spokesman. @Winnie, I don’t need your praises when you say, “Victor you are right about Bobi being Illuminati.” I don’t need anybody’s praises. I point out facts after research for the good of humanity. So back off because you are a tribalist and just another chauvinist. Other Ugandans voted for continuity because they too have development agenda without being chauvinistic. You are only praising Museveni probably because he’s from your ethnic group and the goods you are waiting to get from him opportunistically. The other minorities have to work with a government and chose leaders from their areas for parliament according to their own issues. Many people want stability for their elderly parents and also a government that will ensure they don’t lose their property to looting by hooligans and land grabbers who take advantage of the ruling party. Therefore, leave me out of your praises. Thank you.
….the goods you are waiting… I meant goodies… for correction.
Ah Winnie and Victor you are in a class of your own
I admit that you are entitled to your opinion and must respect it
Winnie kindly review the Trek of the great leader to the areas where he conducted a successful experiment; take a pen and paper and count the great developments in that area, also note the ownership
Also look at the inhabitants, who buys their produce? do they get the market value? are they able to sustain the activity?
Now conclude the trip by counting the monuments, there is one around Makulubita subcounty head quarter
You shamelessly talk of minerals (as a share holder, yes they exist), the people obsessed with coffee used to grow it as individuals, sell it and sustain the families. They had no reason to know any body powerful, not even a subcounty chief
. Right now they cannot afford the tourism that you offer
There is this cattle keeper from “Lukoola”, i mean cattle corridor who on being admitted to hospital starved to death; he could not eat the posho and beans offered by the hospital when all his cows had been eaten by some strangers. has his ghost been compensated?
Knowing the past informs the present and the future
when you chose to live like a water plant, you obey the wind all the time but there are plants that shed leaves during harsh conditions
The mistake people who do not know their history make is to believe that you can force human beings to consume all that is pushed down their throats
Please note culture evolves.
We deal with Ugandans from all parts of the country, we have toured the entire country, we have lived over several decades
“listen to others, even to the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story”
@Byampuna, please note I am not in a class with Winnie. I am just from the minorities and have never held power in Uganda, neither do I wish to be among the power-hungry people. Leave me out of your categorization in the same camp with Winnie. I research and analyze issues. That’s all.
ah ah
it is nice to learn that you do research, so you seek to know; well Yoga Adhola had a series on Semei Rwakirenzi Kakungulu, to some of us it is clear as to who the administrator was answerable by the time he crossed the Nile and possibly the Kafu component of the great river
This part of history is overlooked by those who do not dig deep, and have thus made claims that are misplaced;
The myth about “power” does not mean much to individuals who are independent minded [one may never interact with the members of the “club holding powerful positions’ in sadness or joy, a mere co-existence, there may even be nothing to show (for the common good) in their respective villages possibly that is why they can easily do without them
Have a nice weekend
@Byampuna. Haha. Yes, we know that Semei Kakungulu had sought to be crowned king over then greater Bukedi. But even the colonialists he thought would crown him king over Bukedi refused. That is how he started resisting the British and even Anglicanism and started his own religion of the Abayudaya or a form of Judaism. That’s also how there are Baganda settlers/immigrants in Mbale who went there along Semei Kakungulu today. But Kakunguli himself came from Kooki but married the Kabaka’s sister whom he divorced when she refused to leave Anglicanism.
@victor
I used my cousins’ mail, her name had come to you
Please do not folloe the string using her name
Andrew. I agree with you that Bobi should have a long term strategy. However, having heard from people like Tumukunde that the elections were rigged in the past and seeing how Bobi was continuously harassed lets not pretend that Museveni has not rigged this election like other before.
In Law; there is Duty of Care;My comment is no 7 okay.
To my loyal followers;
I Winnie the original Brition of high class who makes great contributions on this page hereby declare that comment 12 is not mine its an insult to me and falls short of my presentation, class and style of writing.
Why should i wish Adhola Death?I know Omeros,Rajab and Ejakaait’ are behind this crap.
If you wished Adhola death, may it come back to you! We shall pray for Yoga Adhola to live long. May God protect him!
I think Andrew Mwenda has become a scattered brain who needs serious help.
Otherwise, how can one separates a person’s “great character” from his mind? In other words, what comes first: a great character or a great mind?
Consequently I believe, AM is full of nuggu (covetous) of Hon Kyagulanyi stunning social, international celebrity status and political achievement in a blink of an eye. Hence Mwqenda’s barrage of demonization and his contradictory character assassination of BW.
Byampuna, I like your intellect and objectivity.
In my opinion, although Andrew Mwenda is talking about the shortsightedness of Hon Kyagulanyi, he himself is already blind. E.g., blind to the fact that Buganda (Central) is cosmopolitan (inhabited by the citizens of the world). As a result many of the different resident tribes in Uganda in Central registered and vote differently with and/or the Baganda. E.g., most of the people from Greater Northern and Eastern Uganda resident in Central usually vote the Opposition.
I give a recent e.g., the MP elect for Makindye East is Derrick Nyeko of NUP from Northern Uganda. In other words, Namwongo e.g. is very cosmopolitan whose residents among others, include Ugandans of Indian origin. Therefore, when Central sic Buganda voted in block to show Mr. Museveni the exit, actually all Ugandans became foresighted not shortsighted the way Andrew mwenda wants to insinuate.
Bobi Wine’s success shouldn’t be tied to religious institutions but rather the failure of this government to address the unemployment problem. You can’t have a huge percentage of a country’s youthful population unemployed or underemployed and you’ll think they’ll vote for you. That’s an outright no. Whether you’re from the east, north or wherever as long as you suffer the same fate you’ll vote for a youthful person who resonates with your struggle and plight regardless of the region they’re from.
The road to 2026 is going to be quite something for Uganda. This despair that is in the hearts of the youth must be addressed.
Ah
I have been waiting for this information, you mention the
British, I hope you now realize who was in charge. An
individual who was seeking self-determination could not
have been selectively acting on behalf of a leadership that
was not in control of its administration . The association of
his acts with a troubled leadership beats my understanding,
from your reading i hope you have noted the situation of
“wars” some religious at the time and finally an agreement
signed on behalf of a two tear old leader
Does this make you rethink the claim of a population greedy
for power?
Our generation had an opportunity of reading the history of
the areas that we occupy, it informs the way we relate.
This mishap is regrettable, having to keep active even when resources are limited,
( thanks to COVID-19) you become dependent on others!
but we have to get on the same page with regard to the history of this enclave, otherwise the same
“story” will be passed on to generations
As for the immigrants i hope they enjoy the same environment as those who settled in central region
I recall as students who chose to study from Eastern region, any mistake we made was attributed to
belonging to a certain tribe!
At the University not showing interest in UPC activities reflected you believed in Prof Lule (RIP); To
date opinion gets skewed when a number of people from certain areas are involved.
The country deserves better
Dear Editor
Please do not release the last string to Victor
I used an e0mail but the owner is not Byampuna (her name came by accident)
Ah
I have been waiting for this information, you mention the
British, I hope you now realize who was in charge. An
individual who was seeking self-determination could not
have been selectively acting on behalf of a leadership that
was not in control of its administration . The association of
his acts with a troubled leadership beats my understanding,
from your reading i hope you have noted the situation of
“wars” some religious at the time and finally an agreement
signed on behalf of a two tear old leader
Does this make you rethink the claim of a population greedy
for power?
Our generation had an opportunity of reading the history of
the areas that we occupy, it informs the way we relate.