The tragedy of human hubris

How Israel’s plan to enter Gaza ignores the lessons of history and will only lead to tears

THE LAST WORD | Andrew M. Mwenda | Israel is preparing a ground invasion of Gaza in a vain effort to destroy Hamas. It is incredible how stupid human beings can be, especially our inability to learn from history. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon to destroy the PLO and remove Syrian influence from that country. Initially, the operation seemed a success as a surrounded PLO left Beirut and relocated to Tripoli, Syrian influence was neutralised and Israel installed a friendly government in Beirut led by her Christian allies. However, when a pro-Israel president was assassinated, Israel’s position in Beirut became untenable and her forces withdrew to Southern Lebanon.

Then things began to take a nosedive. New resistance emerged. Islamic militants launched guerrilla attacks against Israel forces. The conflict was too twisted to revisit here. But suffice it to say that with time, the civil war in Lebanon intensified, new factors and combinations came into play. In May 2000, Israel withdrew from Southern Lebanon. The Christian army it had trained, armed and financed for 18 years fell within days to Hezbollah, a radical extremist Islamic movement and a mortal enemy of Israel. By this time, Syria had regained complete dominance in Lebanon. Does anyone in Tel Aviv remember these events?

This delusion, that because you are powerful you can invade and occupy a country easily led Americans into Vietnam. For 15 years, it bombed that country with relentless abandon, killing and maiming millions of its citizens. At the height of this effort, America had half a million troops in Vietnam. North Vietnam was supplying the rebels (Vietcong) in the south using what was known as the Ho Chi Minh trail which passed through the little neighboring country called Laos. America determined to destroy this trail. It threw more bombs on Laos than those dropped during the entire Second World War. The Ho Chi Minh Trail was never destroyed. America withdrew from Vietnam a militarily defeated and politically exhausted country.

The lessons of Vietnam seemed to have sunk into American political consciousness for decades. The U.S. did not invade and occupy another country for almost three decades until in 2001 when it went into Afghanistan and in 2003 went into Iraq. Both occupations brought only tears to America and Washington, in spite of her enormous resources, withdrew from both countries defeated. Meanwhile, the enemy the U.S. claimed to have gone to fight and destroy in Afghanistan, the Taliban, grew stronger. America had no option but to sign a surrender agreement with the Taliban. After 20 years of occupation, it withdrew leaving the Taliban to take over the country.

In Iraq, America went there claiming to fight the forces of terrorism. After ten years of occupation, it left behind a highly radicalised country, gave birth to ISIS and strengthened Iran’s hand in the region. Except for the initial shock and awe that characterised the U.S. “victory” in Iraq, it is difficult to see any other victory America got in the Middle East. Yet this did not stop the USA from invading Libya, toppling Col. Muammar Gadaffi and leaving the country in ruins, ruled by a motley of terrorists. Now America is encouraging Israel with a ground invasion of Gaza to eliminate Hamas.

The mighty USSR went into Afghanistan in 1979 and secured a quick victory, occupying the entire country. Nine years later, it withdrew exhausted. Last year I argued with friends that Russian President Vladmir Putin would NEVER seek to invade and occupy the whole of Ukraine, even as his military armada closed in Kiev. The best he would do is occupy the east whose people feel close to Russia, most of them are ethnic Russian or speak Russian. Is it possible that Putin could have deluded himself that he can have an easy victory and occupy the entire Ukraine? We do not know. But if he tried, it would have been the worst decision of his life.

Uganda is also following in these footsteps in Somalia. In 2012, our government took a decision to kick Al Shabab out of Mogadishu. The aim was to stabilise the country, protect its people against Al Shabab “terrorists” and shift the transitional Somali government from Nairobi to Mogadishu. Initially, UPDF seemed to achieve this grandiose objective. But this was only the calm before the storm. Today, with five countries (Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi, Djibouti and Uganda) occupying Somalia, Al Shabab has grown bigger, stronger and better organised. The AU and her allies can postpone but cannot stop the takeover of Somalia by Al Shabab.

This brings me back to Israel and her plans to invade Gaza to destroy Hamas. History should be Israel’s guide but it seems the decision makers in Tel Aviv are reading a different script. There will be no victory for Israel in Gaza, only a protracted occupation that will leave Tel Aviv exhausted, internally divided and internationally isolated. The only way Israel can destroy Hamas is to launch a brutal, scorched earth policy in Gaza and kill every Palestinian there, or at least 90% of them. In short, only a genocide can guarantee victory. And Israel can learn from the USA, Canada and Australia where settler colonialists killed most of the indigenous people and pushed the remaining few into “native reserves.”

There was a time when colonial powers invaded and occupied other countries for decades at low cost. But that was 18th and 19th centuries. A major development from modern Western civilization (which dates beginning around 1800) has two interconnected dimensions: the first is the political awakening of the masses; the second is the rise of nationalism. Political awakening was occasioned by urbanisation and mass education; nationalism was a result of growing self-awareness leading to politicisation of identity. An idea emerged in Europe that every nation, really an “imagined community” must have a state of their own and the members of that community must enjoy freedom to govern themselves.

For millennia, human beings had largely been governed under empires, which were multi ethnic. Now every ethnic group came to demand a “nation-state.” The creation of a nation-state went hand in hand with ethnic cleaning – the forceful eviction or elimination of those deemed not to belong. The state of Israel itself was created through ethnic cleansing of Jews out of Europe during the holocaust and then mass migration to Palestine. The very creation a Jewish state, based on the expropriation of Palestinian lands, created a Palestinian identity and hence Palestinian national consciousness. This is the animal Israel is fighting, not Hamas.

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amwenda@independent.co.ug