The US-Africa Axis in 2025 and Beyond

What does Trump’s victory in America mean for relations between the US and Africa in general, and between America and Uganda in particular? Good question, and it’s one that has certainly been discussed at length over the course of the last few weeks. While hindsight will always be the ultimate judge, there’s nothing more insightful than trying to make a prediction.

Let’s take a closer look at how to do it and what it would mean to our region if our ideas came true.

Formulating foreign policy predictions

We are not setting out to be controversial, nor do we wish to provide a commentary on what is happening in the US right now. Our aim is simply to look at the facts and recent historical context to formulate our own foreign policy predictions. Because of the divisive nature of US politics at the moment, we feel it important to stress this point. As a result, the predictions that will follow have arisen by looking at:

• The current economic climate in the US and Africa and the prevailing sentiment of the IMF and World Bank
• Current relationships between African leaders and the Biden Whitehouse, as well as a review of relations with the previous Trump Whitehouse
• The level and scale of Chinese investment in our continent and how this may influence US-China relations going forward

Now that we have explained how our thought processes have unfolded, we may begin looking at the details.

Competition for smarter extraction technology

The Chinese BRI has — according to many — allowed Beijing to steal a march on Washington when it comes to access to African raw materials. The era in which African manpower and labour could be exploited for minimal outlay very much looks like it is coming to end. Why? Because mobile devices and electric vehicles are being made at faster rates than ever before, and it’s Africa that possesses much of the raw materials for batteries.

The US has become increasingly aware of the need to extract raw materials at a scale in a way that is faster and requires fewer people on the ground. In places like Uganda that have virtually unexplored regions thought to contain precious metals and rare earth elements, this is an exciting opportunity for growth. President Trump has made no secret of his willingness to use economic tariffs in an attempt to slow Chinese expansion. He is also a prominent advocate of fracking for natural gas deposits. His track record appears to indicate that a large-scale investment in extraction and drilling could be on the table.

Travel infrastructure investments and eCommerce

While some see Trump as a protectionist, he is really a businessman in high office. He has made no secret of his vision of bringing manufacturing back into the US, and this is something that could have a real benefit to Africa. To understand how this could play out, we need to look more closely at the situation on the ground.

US businesses want to be able to sell to as big a market as possible, and currently much of Africa is overlooked in favour of the Middle East, Far East, and Europe. Using US construction companies to build roads, housing, and sanitation services in key African commercial hubs could prove highly lucrative for the Trump administration. It would also have the dual benefit of counteracting the Chinese BRI that has placed Beijing in the driving seat in the eyes of many Republicans in Congress.

A potential clash over online speech and content

X has faced a political backlash in Brazil and the fluid political nature of some African countries may come into play here in a big way. Trump is very outspoken and determined to reduce the level of perceived censorship in US agencies. Watching how this could play out in Africa will certainly be very interesting.

While we never wish to predict such unfortunate events, it is a grim reality that political corruption and mission creep will continue in certain corners of our great continent. If X is unwilling to help leaders censor the public, it could truly become the global town square Musk has talked about since buying it.

With the Whitehouse pushing back against the idea of hate speech and censoring so-called disinformation, it could open the eyes of western leaders and officials to practices in Africa. With that would come global economic pressure and possibly even sanctions against rulers who are seen to have become illegitimate as a result of their own actions.

Cultural influences and moves into entertainment

Nollywood takes its name from Hollywood for a good reason — the US continues to set the tone for global entertainment. What will be really interesting is seeing if US entertainment and sports franchises come to Africa and move beyond simply building fan bases in South Africa.

Dana White at the UFC has been very open about wanting to put on a UFC Africa fight card in 2025 and it just so happens he is one of the best friends of President-elect Trump. If the Whitehouse were to get behind one of the world’s largest sports leagues coming to Africa on a regular basis, who knows what kind of doors could be opened and connections could be made.

It will also be interesting to see how different businesses around the world — not just in Africa — adapt to what could be a new economic reality. eCommerce stores, streaming sites, and places to play games online like Bonus Focus may all benefit from U.S. investment in African infrastructure designed to counteract the influence of China.

Final thoughts

Hindsight is always perfect and yet no one who makes a prediction does so with its benefit. For this reason, we have attempted to make our judgements as apolitical as possible and stick solely to the facts available at the time of writing.