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Uganda targets tenfold GDP growth riding on mining sector expansion

The East African nation boasts diverse mineral resources, including deposits of gold, copper, high-grade tin, cobalt, kaolin, iron ore, and others, which remain underexploited

Kampala, Uganda | JULIUS BUSINGE | Ugandan strategists are ambitiously working towards growing the nation’s economy tenfold, aiming to expand its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $50 billion in FY2022/2023 to $500 billion by 2040. However, a key private sector leader asserts that prioritizing the mining sector is essential to achieving this target.

The National Development Plan IV (NDPIV), set to commence in FY2025/26, emphasizes the implementation of the Mining Act (2022) to address systemic issues, including informality, speculation, institutional gaps, and inefficient licensing procedures within the sector.

Uganda boasts diverse mineral resources, including deposits of gold, copper, high-grade tin, tungsten, cobalt, kaolin, iron ore, and rare earth elements, which remain underexploited.

According to Richard Kaijuka, Chairman of the Board of Trustees for the Uganda Chamber of Mines & Petroleum and former Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, effective execution of the NDPIV plan could significantly increase the mining sector’s contribution to the national GDP.

“Excellent implementation of this plan would see the mining sector’s contribution rise from the current 2.2% to much higher levels,” Kaijuka said at a recent mining conference in Kampala.

He further emphasized that focusing on just three key minerals and adding value to them could generate more revenue than Uganda’s oil and gas projects.

Status and growth potential

The mining sector’s contribution to Uganda’s GDP has grown from 0.3% in FY2009/2010 to 2.2% in FY2022/2023, according to data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). Despite this growth, sector leaders believe strategic investments could push contributions beyond the 7% levels achieved in the 1950s and 1960s.

Kaijuka emphasized the need for substantial foreign investment to fully exploit the country’s mineral wealth. “We must attract serious investors and make mining a priority,” he urged.

Uganda’s annual mineral production, however, decreased by 35% between FY2017/2018 and FY2021/2022. Despite the drop in production volumes, the total value of minerals increased by 37.6% during the same period, reflecting a focus on higher-value minerals such as limestone, vermiculite, and gold.

Key mineral resources and economic impact

Uganda’s mineral wealth is vast, with gold being one of the most valuable resources. Significant deposits are located in Busia, Mubende, Karamoja, and Buhweju, where small-scale and artisanal mining dominates, though large-scale commercial operations are being pursued under the new legal framework.

The revival of the Kilembe Mines in Western Uganda, historically known for copper and cobalt production, has garnered renewed interest amid growing global demand for cobalt, particularly for battery manufacturing. Additionally, Uganda’s substantial iron ore deposits in the Muko and Sukulu regions present an opportunity to establish a domestic iron and steel industry.

In the southwestern region, deposits of tin, tungsten, and tantalum (3Ts)—critical for the electronics industry—are poised to attract global market attention. Large phosphate deposits in Tororo, essential for fertilizer production, further underscore the mining sector’s potential to drive economic transformation.

Challenges and recommendations

Despite Uganda’s rich mineral resources, the sector faces significant challenges, including inadequate infrastructure in remote areas, limited geological data, insufficient community engagement, and regulatory enforcement gaps. Kaijuka called for swift action to quantify the country’s mineral deposits, arguing that comprehensive data would inform better policy decisions and private-sector investments.

Uganda’s mining sector currently employs nearly 600,000 people, with over 60% involved in Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM). ASM contributes over 90% of Uganda’s total mining production, valued at approximately $850 million annually. Experts agree that formalizing the ASM sector and enhancing regulatory oversight will be crucial to unlocking its full potential.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, sector experts believe that as global demand for minerals continues to rise, Uganda’s mining industry could play a pivotal role in driving economic growth and industrialization. Increased investment in mineral exploration, quantification, and value addition will lower production costs, boost returns on investment, and expand the availability of domestically manufactured products such as cement, iron, and steel.

Nabil Alam, CEO of Blencowe Resources, which is licensed to mine graphite in northern Uganda, emphasized the need for a targeted value addition strategy. “Building in-country capacity is paramount. A clear value addition strategy for each mineral will yield positive results,” Alam said.

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