The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
Rukungiri is the home of Besigye and Museveni’s mother. So Besigye winning by that narrow margin is due to identity and residence. Kiruhura, the home of Museveni’s Bahima sub ethnic group, is also understandable. Yet in spite of the old Ankole being Museveni’s tribal home, Besigye was able to get close to 30% of the vote in those rich districts except Kiruhura. And most of his vote came from educated elites in towns like Mbarara, Sheema, Bushenyi, Fort Portal, etc. In Kalangala, which is less urbanised but rich and is not Museveni’s tribal home, Besigye got 43% and Museveni 54%. In Mukono, urbanised and not Museveni’s tribal home, Besigye beat Museveni by 47:41%.
Let us also look at the worst ten districts in our poverty league tables. Nabilatuk is the second poorest with 73.1% of its people living in poverty, Amudat is 64.3%, Napak 60.2%, Kaabong 53.9%, Nakapiripirit 53.1%, Serere 49.2%, Kween 48.2% and Agago 47.2%. Nabilatuk was not a district in 2016, so it has no results. In Amudat Museveni got 97% of the vote against Besigye’s 2%, Napaka Museveni 94%, Besigye 3%; Kaabong Museveni 89%, Besigye 4.4%, Nakapiripirit Museveni 95%, Besigye 3.5%; Serere Museveni 51%, Besigye 44%, Kween Museveni 71%, Besigye 26% and Agago Museveni 60%, Besigye 39%. Museveni swept the poor districts, even beating Besigye in Agago with 60%, a district in Acholi, previously the epicenter of resistance to his rule.
We can also look at voter turnout in these districts. Kampala and Wakiso had only 51% and 54% turnout respectively. Kodido and Moroto had 72% and 77% respectively. Outside Museveni’s tribal home in Ankole, voter turnout in Kalangala was 67%, in Mukono 63. And while Museveni’s home district of Kiruhura had 89% voter turnout, Besigye’s Rukungiri had 75%. In Napak (79%), Kaabong (87%), Nakaoiripirit (77%), voter turnout in Museveni rural strongholds was much higher than in Besigye’s urban strongholds.
The evidence from both elections and the numerous opinion polls and surveys done over the last 20 years give a clear and overwhelming verdict: the higher you climb the income and education ladder, the near you get to urban areas, the higher is the support for the opposition i.e. the desire for change. And the reverse is true: the lower you climb the income and education ladder and the deeper you go into the rural areas, the higher will be support for Museveni i.e. support for maintenance of the status quo.
The lesson from the above numbers is simple but fundamental. Elites in Uganda, except for the top one percent, are tired of the status quo and want change i.e. favour opposition over Museveni. In saying the problem of Uganda is a useless elite class, is Besigye saying they are wrong to vote for him? Indeed they seem to be. Supporting a politics of radical extremists demanding change for change’s own sake, without examining the values, policies and social forces promoting this change is a danger to our country. I rest my case!
****
amwenda@independent.co.ug
“See how wrong I was when I fought Museveni in 2005 for giving land and tax incentives to BIDCO to begin planting oil palm in that island?”
It takes honesty to confess when you are and were wrong.👍👍👍
The reasoning behind this article is amusing and self defeating. World over, urban areas tend to be opposition leaning hot spots. This is largely because they are composed of educated, entrepreneur and businesses people. This group of people is able to easily see the government failures and the injustices compared to the rest of the population, and this not an exception to Besigye or Uganda. In fact, looking at the stats, the margins of Besigye’s win in urban areas are small, considering the behavior of voters in urban areas where the incumbent has been in power for more than 20 years. Therefore, Besigye’s point of elites is, I think mainly about those who have completely refused to participate in the elections, ignored assist to explain to the population about the current realities, BUT EVEN MORE ABOUT those elites that endless and deliberately misrepresent the facts as you do-Andrew most of the time. There is open letters to Andrew Mwenda in observer news paper by DEO SSELLWANGA, I recommend them to help the reader to understand my last point.
1.The elites especially the first class ones are easy to work with because they conceptualize issues easily and were well brought up.What do i mean;these are the ones whose parents are educated and are either retired Lawyers,Doctors,Teachers,Engineers or Nurses.
2.The second class of elites are those whose parents were not educated but coz of the good education system under M7’s regime they were able to send their children to school but they still dropped so they are allover social media making uncoordinated noise these group include those whose parents are boboda riders;taxi drivers,retired sex workers,maids,market vendors and uneducated housewives their children can easily say the word komayonko and its very normal to them.
3.The current crop of elite Ugandans are too comfortable with life in that they dont have time to participate in elections even though they participated in an election;they are too few to make an impact in the election results..
3.Time will come when elections results will be stage manged;what do i mean; Elections are about the majority winning so how do you surrender power to the majority in Uganda who are so clueless about how the world works?
4. Between the rich and poor who needs the other more and who can do without the other?
This is very absurd Mwenda! You surely should not have analyzed or assessed KB’s assertion by the absurd so-called elections in Uganda, which we all now know that KB does no longer believe in – ANYMORE. I think you have not been following KB, absurdly again. And you are an elite, I hear! What KB implies is that our people – educated or not, but perhaps uneducated forgivable – are so innert and so disappointingly sheepish as even to believe that so-called elections can cause change in Uganda. In fact, they should even not be participating in the absurd so-called elections. Because they should prove that they are smarter than this. Yes, you will ask: for all this time why has he participated in elections? There is no problem with that. We all wake up at one time or another. Isn’t it only natural?
What KB is referring to is that they (elites) are merely there sleeping waiting for mere elections in order to have been known to have so-called excercised their civil right. He is saying it takes quite more than this. You don’t vote if you are not going to push also. You demand but also broadcast also internationally. After all they have the tools: the knowledge, all the platforms, the strategic voices out there, i.e. friends and contact; etc. But, of course, in the final analysis, neither you AM nor KB understand the situation. It is a little more complicated than that. Pray, one time I will come back.
Great Submission Winnie
I subscribe to your sense of humor!
I find the part on quantitative analysis still wanting, elites can be described on three dimensions, intellect, social and economic superiority, while you explain that there is correlation between education and income and therefore being urban, you don’t give how many of people for example in Wakiso belong to which income or even education class or level. In Wakiso could be belonging to lower levels of education to be called elites but are intellectually enlightened or even highly entrepreneurial. Besigye may need to explain further who are his ‘Elites’ because as you point out a snapshot in what general statistics say is not in his favor. I believe he refers to the educated, employed (including under and over employed) not necessarily urbanized who don’t take politics seriously and therefore don’t vote. Its also known that when this class grows (the so called middle class),sitting governments have potential to last longer. otherwise its good points raised for opposition political strategists to begin with.