Understanding Uganda’s economic stagnation

The difference between the three aforementioned nations and Uganda is that the former all began their journey from where Uganda is currently at, albeit 30 or so years prior.

This places Museveni almost at the very end of all long-serving African presidents, save for Eritrea. In the case of Eritrea, although, it lags behind Uganda in GDP per capita terms, it looks set to soon pass it as well. That is because along with Sudan and eSwatini, where Museveni’s seen his GDP per capita double, the former nations have seen it multiplied by five, with Eritrea’s having quadrupled in the same time period.

Data from World Bank, Last updated: Jul 6, 2018

Finally, in the name of fairness, Museveni deserves regional comparison. This is because widely varying socio-economic factors contribute to GDP growth in the vast landscape that is Africa. And since Sudan’s growth 25 years ago from where Uganda is now was already mentioned and GDP data for South Sudan is not available for the length of Museveni’s presidency, we will avoid this particular comparison. We will only remind ourselves that the Sudanese GDP has grown 5 times over the last 25 years.

With much more similar GDP starting points in 1986 and similar growth in Rwanda and DR Congo, Museveni seems less at odds with East African expectations for economic growth in terms of GDP. However, when compared with Kenya and Tanzania’s quadrupled GDPs, we can see that Museveni’s NRM government has only outperformed DR Congo with its never-ending wars that do not plague Uganda in the same way. Second-to-last in the region ahead of DR Congo and second-to-last ahead of Cameroon in the list of longest-serving presidencies, Museveni is objectively and undoubtedly keeping Uganda in economic stagnation, in complete agreement with the definition given at the beginning.

Data from World Bank, Last updated: Jul 6, 2018

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