Why NRM fears Independent MPs

The People Power wave

Combine these numbers with the so-called Bobi Wine wave – phenomenon behind parvenu legislator, Kyagulanyi Sentamu aka Bobi Wine’s easy defeat of candidates fronted by bother the ruling NRM and FDC in the Kyadondo East by-election in 2018. He ran as an independent. Despite being new on the political scene and appearing unprepared without any established party backing, Bobi Wine won easily with 78% of the vote.

Bobi Wine also worked with a small group of Independents and some opposition MPs in a bid that almost failed the ruling party from lifting amending the constitution to remove the 75-year age limit. The ruling party had to fall back on the military to beat the MPs into submission before the constitution could be amended. It now appears Museveni does not want groups of MPs he cannot control.

And in a few months, Bobi Wine, the Independent with no party structures no huge wards of cash has become a kingmaker of sorts. He ensured that candidates he supported in subsequent elections won.

Thanks to Bobi Wine’s support, Independent candidate Kassiano Wadri swept the Arua Municipality by-election beating both NRM’s Sarah Tiperu and FDC’s Bruce Musema.

Both FDC and NRM had thrown their all behind their candidates. Museveni and Besigye campaigned for their respective candidates. They lost.

In the Arua Municipality by-election, NRM was looking to retain the seat that was previously occupied by a party stalwart, Ibrahim Abiriga, who had just been murdered.

Wadri and FDC’s Bruce Musema’s votes combined were slightly above 7000. On the other hand, NRM’s Tiperu and the other five party leaning independents had over 9000 votes combined.

“NRM lost because of internal dynamics,” NRM’s Ofwono Opondo lamented blaming the loss on messed up party primaries, which he claims divided the ruling party’s support and gave chance to an independent candidate.

Indeed, during the 2016 elections, Museveni struggled with several NRM-leaning independents who were challenging party flag bearers.

In another by election, riding on Bobi Wine’s support and mobilisation skills, Asuman Basalirwa beat NRM’s Francis Oketcho and FDC’s Eunice Namatende in Bugiri Municipality.

Armed only with his `people power’ slogan and popularity as an artist, Bobi Wine has disrupted the political landscape in Uganda.

People Power candidates have since won student guild presidential races at Makerere, Nkumba, Kyambogo and Mbarara universities.

And ahead of the 2021 elections, Bobi Wine is seen as the most popular contender against President Yoweri Museveni.

The existing tensions between his camp and that of Kizza Besigye, who has until recently been the defacto leader of opposition in Uganda having challenged President Museveni for four times in vain speaks volumes of Bobi Wine’s political clout as much does the fact that other opposition leaders like Mao and former FDC Mugisha Muntu’s efforts to quote the youthful legislator.

As Bobi Wine’s popularity soars and Independents continue to eat into the share of political parties, it makes sense that the parties are fighting back. But since the muddy party primaries will inevitably results in fallouts as some aspirants are either locked out of the race or feel cheated at the ballot, it remains what form the Independents – who are provided for in the national constitutional order – will take by 2021.

Mao says that no one should interfere with people’s constitutional right to participate in elections but at the same time, people should not attempt to eat their cake and have it.

“If a party doesn’t meet your needs the best option is to leave it but not to stay in it and keep fighting it,” Mao says, “That doesn’t foster constitutional development.”

He says the Political Parties Act provides for the establishment of regulations on how to participate as an Independent and that is what the NFC has been trying to put in place with that law.

“They have looked at how other countries have done it,” he says.

Mao says that in the process of finding out what works, the NFC looked at what other countries have done.

In Zimbabwe, they completely abolished independents. In Kenya, for one to become an Independent, they should not have associated with a political party for a period of time.

But others are viewing the motive of the law suspiciously. Crispin Kaheru, the coordinator Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda (CCEDU) told The Independent that while on the face of it, the law appears intended to strengthen multi-party politics in the country, it could be aimed at curbing the growing strength of independents in parliament.

“Creating certainty is important for multi-party politics and to that I think establishing a legal framework that regulates the participation of Independents is legitimate. But, under the circumstances, this law appears aimed at targeting individual independents. In bringing an independent law, one senses a temptation to target the legitimate independents.”

He says that if the political parties were only looking at preventing political opportunism, they would start by establishing strict guidelines envisioned by the Political Parties Code of Conduct that has for years been gathering dust in parliament.

He says the law to regulate independent candidates appears part of the big plan for the establish parties to consolidate their privileged position in the politics of the day.

“It is a contentious issue,” Mao says, “But people should put their cards on the table and debate it in good faith.”

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