With over 18 MPs threatening to leave, can FDC survive as a viable opposition political party?

GULU, UGANDA | THE INDEPENDENT | Legislators from the Acholi sub-region have resolved to collaborate with President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni to foster development in their region. This decision came after a meeting at State House Entebbe last week, where, according to a statement from the presidential press unit, most of the MPs—who primarily belong to the opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)—expressed their willingness to work closely with the president for the benefit of the Acholi sub-region.

Led by Okin P.P Ojara, the Chua West County MP in Kitgum district, the MPs told Museveni they were willing to put aside their political differences in order to work collectively for the betterment of Acholi Sub-region. “We may belong to different political parties, but our focus is on fighting poverty and driving socio-economic transformation in Acholi,” Ojara said while reading a prepared statement.

The meeting between Museveni and the MPs comes at a time when the existence of FDC as a viable opposition political party is coming under increased strain. Already more than half of its 30 MPs have indicated either by word or association that they will be leaving the party in about two months when the law allows a change of political party affiliation. Museveni’s meeting with Acholi MPs also comes at a time when one of them; Anthony Akol of Kilak North in Amuru district has already indicated his willingness to join the NRM.

Others also rumoured to be joining the NRM are Lucy Akello the woman MP for Amuru district and Ongiertho Emmanuel Jor the MP for Jonam County Pakwach. The attendance of Okin P.P. Ojara and Betty Aol was particularly surprising because these had expressed support for the FDC Katonga faction headed by Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago. According to the State House statement, Ojara told Museveni they are evaluating whether it still makes sense to be in the opposition.

“We are 10 leaders from different political shades, but we came together to think, brainstorm, and prioritize the pride and prosperity of our people. We asked ourselves tough questions: Why are we in opposition? Should we remain in opposition while our people continue to suffer? How long should we stay in opposition when Acholi is one of the poorest regions in the country? Are we leading our people to poverty or prosperity?” Okin said.

Betty Aol Ochan, the Gulu district woman MP, a former leader of Opposition in parliament told the meeting that as long as they put the interests of the Acholi people first, there is no reason why they shouldn’t work together. “We must unite to find lasting solutions for poverty alleviation,” Aol said. Museveni has been making inroads in the Acholi and Lango regions which had rejected the NRM in the first 20 years of its existence. Now the NRM has more MPs in Acholi and Lango than the opposition.

“You must credit Museveni for his ingenuity. He realized that using force against Acholi and Lango was not going to yield results. Previously it would be suicidal politically to join the NRM. Now being in NRM or being NRM allied like you see with Norbert Mao or Jimmy Akena, is an advantage. Because NRM will not only give you money to run your campaign but will also not antagonize you,” said an MP who asked not to be named.

Katonga Break AwayOther than, the Acholi MPs who have openly expressed willingness to work with Museveni, FDC is also destined to lose 15 MPs to the People’s Front for Freedom-PFF. The party that if registered by the Electoral Commission will take over the FDC Katonga faction.

In 2023, the FDC split in the middle after a section of the party led by the now jailed former President Dr Kizza Besigye accused its current leaders of taking money from President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni in the 2021 general election. The money that Museveni has never denied or accepted was meant to slow down the National Unity Platform that emerged as the leading opposition party.

According to a knowledgeable source, there are 15 MPs whose allegiance is with the Katonga road-based breakaway faction. These are;  Oguzu Lee Denis Okin P.P. Ojara , Oneka Lit Denis Amere , Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda , Muhindo Harold Tonny , Mwijukye Francis , Namanya Naboth , Nyakato Asinansi , Isabirye David Aga , Kabuusu Moses , Aol Betty Ocan , Kamara Nicholas Thadeus , Katusabe Atkins Godfrey , Batuwa Timothy Lusala . Other MPs such as Gilbert Olanya and Ongiertho Emmanuel Jor have not openly expressed their affiliation with either Katonga or Najjanankumbi.

The only MPs that are still firmly in the Najjanankumbi are; Okot Moses Junior , Ssasaga Isaias Johnny, Nandala-Mafabi Nathan James , Nsibambi Yusuf , Kabugho Florence , Apolot Stella Isodo , Businge Joab, Ekanya Geoffrey, Ekudo Tom Julius , Acom Joan Alobo and Adeke Anna Ebaju.

Speaking to Uganda Radio Network, Walid Mulindwa Lubega, the deputy secretary of publicity said it was its unfortunate that some of their MPs are schmoozing with the NRM. He said no party would like to lose its members. “We are going to do whatever is necessary to win back those MPs. People are going to NRM because they are desperate to win back their seats. They know by going to NRM they are assured of support,” Mulindwa said. He added that they are aware that Gen Salim Saleh who has been camped in Gulu for over five years now has been doing nothing but recruiting opposition members into the NRM.

“NRM’s power is in the gun and other things like vote rigging and money. But you should know MPs don’t look at NRM as the alternative. They just want cooperation with it so that they are not harmed politically,” Mulindwa said. He also expressed optimism that FDC will perform better than many people think. He said leading to 2021 general election, 22 MPs had publicly allied with Gen Mugisha Muntu’s Alliance for National Transformation but many of them were to crawl back to FDC.

“We can never be wiped out. The party has already identified candidates and we are going to perform well. We are going to surprise the naysayers. Just like we shocked the nation in 2021 when we got 32 seats when people were saying we couldn’t even get five seats, wait and see in 2026,” Mulindwa said.  He also noted that even other parties in the opposition have internal divisions that are going to be aggravated after choosing flagbearers.

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