Zelensky in the Oval Office

THE LAST WORD | Andrew M. Mwenda |  Vladmir Zelensky, the comedian-turned-president of Ukraine, had been puffed up (the Batoro call it “kuteera ekitigi”) by European leaders and the Biden regime (pun intended) into thinking he was a man of boundless importance. To use Akena Adoko’s words, of the hundreds of human bubbles known to man, none has ever been so skillfully puffed into existence, none has ever soared so high or giltered so radiantly and none has ever burst with such an explosion. So he walked into to the Oval Office to meet the great President Donald Trump with this delusion.

He was immediately brought back to reality. Apparently, he had been advised by his european patrons to wit French president, Emmanuel Macron and UK prime minister, Kier Stammer, “to be tough with Trump”. He tried and got a thorough beating instead. He then realised his country doesn’t matter, it is of little (if at all) strategic value to the USA, even to Europe. The americans were not seeking victory (whatever that meant to anyone) in Ukaire. Rather they were using his country as a proxy to weaken Russia. What ultimately happened to Ukraine and its people was of little significance or consequence. That is internaitonal politics 101.

Trump is right to cut American losses in Europe. First, even an amatuer strategist would see that Russia is not a peer competitor to America. China is. The strategic question before Washington is: in the coming confrontation between America and China, on whose side should Russia be? The answer is obvious. Biden and his confederates drove Russia right into the hands of Beijing. I have never seen such strategic miscalculation in my life, especially by a big power. And the USA seemed happy about this.

The USA has used nearly all her cards against Russia. The only card they have is more and more weapons to Ukraine (which is running out of soldiers) or a direct military involvement (which would spark off world war three). Yet the USA cannot politically sustain this war forever. There has to be an end to it lest the population, already wary of these never ending wars, turns against the party and president in power. This is especially so with Trump whose campaign promise was to end this war in a day.

The USA and her European allies made a strategic miscalculation when they imposed “crippling sanctions” on Russia and even confiscated her forex reserves. They had calculated, just from the way they defined them (crippling) that Russian economy would collapse and Moscow would be brought to her knees and end the war. It hasn’t worked and here is why.

Firstly, global economic dynamics have created alternatives for investment and trade with other countries such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia. So being locked out of western trade, financial and investment markets is no longer fatal. Instead the Russian economy has continued to grow in fact faster than European economies. Why? President Vladmir Putin had anticipated such a move and spent years decoupling Russia from heavy reliance on the west and shifting its economy towards Asia.

Second, if Russia had been economically crippled, such “success” would most likely induce a desperate Moscow to use nuclear weapons to settle the matter quickly rather than accept defeat. This is especially so because Moscow sees the war in Ukraine as an existential struggle, so her resolve is strong. The Americans don’t have a strong strategic reasons to stick to this war. Like they did in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, etc. they will just cut their loses and walk away at the slightest political reason.

Yet the Europeans think they can continue the war without American support. Big mistake. If the Ukrainians could not win with USA and European support, how do the European expect to win after the exit of the USA? Do the Europeans have the unity, money, military supplies and technology to replace what the USA was providing? Everyone in Europe knows (or should know) that without the USA they have little they can do to make a difference in the war. The Russians have been winning with the Americans in the war. How is Ukraine going to win when the USA has pulled out? So the grandstanding by the Europeans should be seen exactly as that, grandstanding.

Second, Europe is not one country speaking with one voice and one leadership. It is a collection of 28 countries with 28 different languages, cultures and interests. It is the might of the USA that knits them together. Without America, bringing them together is like herding cats. Already the tensions are becoming evident: the British don’t want the French to take the lead, the Italians don’t want to participate in the peacekeeping mission, Poland has rejected this idea as well etc. So no single European country can provide the necessary leadership that the USA provides.

Secondly, unity would only be possible if there was a serious security risk to all the Europeans. Russia, which has failed to overrun a poor and disorganised Ukraine over the last three years, cannot pose an existential threat to other European countries. Hence, it is unlikely that Europeans will unite around the defense of Ukraine without the USA. So, European leaders will have to tone down their threat inflation rhetoric.

At the summit with Zelensky, they pledged $800 billion. Where do they raise this money? With debts from covid, declining standards of living due to slow growth, it is very unlikely that European countries can raise the money to sustain this war without the USA. And even if they did, they will face political backlash from their citizens whose entitlements they may have to cut to fight Russia.

The Ukrainians made a strategic blunder to base the survival of their nation on the generosity and kindness of others. It led to the disaster in the Oval Office. Zelensky thought he was an equal to Trump, even referring to the USA vice president as JD. He had been puffed up by Biden and his confederates in Washington DC and Europe, but Trump and his team don’t see him that way.

Right now America doesn’t have many cards to play. Trump has to go along with Putin’s demands. If he doesn’t accept them, what are his options? There aren’t any more sanctions to impose that can make a difference. He cannot prolong a war he promised to end by continuing to send more weapons. He cannot make America join the war directly. That would do against his promise to end it, not to mention precipitate world war three.

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amwenda@ugindependent.co.ug